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COVID-19 Stuff Here

dru

Tim Horan (67)
The NZ delay for Aus entry through to Feb is interesting. By Feb the prevalence of community spread in Aus will be far greater than now, and hospitalisations are likely to be quite prevalent.

Hard to imagine those changes will result in increasing confidence in NZ. I don’t think it’s a big stretch to suggest SRP (Super Rugby Pacific) is going to see impacts, and possibly more than just front ending local derbies.
 

The_Brown_Hornet

Rod McCall (65)
The UK seems to be a pretty good bellwether for COVID and the data here: http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ paints a pretty optimistic picture

Lots of new cases:

1640156209378.png


but not a correspondingly escalating fatality rate

1640156264758.png
 

Sully

Tim Horan (67)
Staff member
Ours has been scaled back dramatically, Sully. Cousin has covid and will clear his isolation on Christmas eve, but with other family members managing cystic fibrosis and cancer remissions, we're not going to risk it.

Hope your daughter is all clear.
Yep, She is cleared. Now I'm sick with a cold that seems way worse since I've not had one in two years.
 

waiopehu oldboy

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Hold all SRP (Super Rugby Pacific) tickets...

Omicron has officially made it into NZ: person arrived from UK on 16/12, tested negative three times in their seven days in MIQ then positive on day nine by which time they were out & about in various Aux restaurants, bars & nightclubs.
 
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Derpus

Jason Little (69)
Hold all SRP (Super Rugby Pacific) tickets...

Omicron has officially made it into NZ: person arrived from UK on 16/12, tested negative three times in their seven days in MIQ then positive on day nine by which time they were out & about in various Aux restaurants, bars & nightclubs.
What's the death rate in NSW? I know we have 60k odd cases and only 600 in hospital.

It's pretty unfashionable to say but surely now is the time to, you know, let 'er rip.
 

waiopehu oldboy

Stirling Mortlock (74)
^ for better or worse neither you nor I are running NZ.

We're not yet at that 70% in favour tipping point to "let 'er rip" & I suspect DGH Bloomfield will be advising PM Ardern that a "circuit breaker" lockdown of sorts for two to four weeks is in order. I further suspect that PM Ardern will scale that back somewhat but we'll still be looking at increased restrictions, esp at the border, sooner rather than later & probably for longer than we'd want.

Edit: remember also that a single case of Delta in the community sent us into full lockdown for a month. I don't expect an exact repeat due to higher vaccination rates & Omicron appearing to be less of a threat to the health system (esp at the WTF do we do now? end of things) but there will surely be a reaction of some kind: even during the silly season, doing nothing just won't be an option.
 
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dru

Tim Horan (67)
What's the death rate in NSW? I know we have 60k odd cases and only 600 in hospital.

It's pretty unfashionable to say but surely now is the time to, you know, let 'er rip.

"Let it rip" could have come with some better planning to be honest. But it is here in numbers. The key to watch is ICU - NSW at 61 (+ 5 deaths) and Vic at 62 (6 deaths). Seems likely to follow in Qld and ACT (and SA).

I haven't been permitted to booster until brought forward(booked for 4-1-22) but I won't be returning to work till 7 days after that.

The tracing system in Qld has basically fallen in a heap under the numbers, and given it is number driven it's hard to imagine NSW/Vic is doing better.

If I were in govt in either WA or NZ I'd be holding tight on the border restrictions for now. Low numbers in both places. While it's quite possible (likely?) for Omicron to "rip" you'd hold for the time being surely. And I wouldn't change those rules until it escapes and gets into the community in spite the precautions.
 

Derpus

Jason Little (69)
"Let it rip" could have come with some better planning to be honest. But it is here in numbers. The key to watch is ICU - NSW at 61 (+ 5 deaths) and Vic at 62 (6 deaths). Seems likely to follow in Qld and ACT (and SA).

I haven't been permitted to booster until brought forward(booked for 4-1-22) but I won't be returning to work till 7 days after that.

The tracing system in Qld has basically fallen in a heap under the numbers, and given it is number driven it's hard to imagine NSW/Vic is doing better.

If I were in govt in either WA or NZ I'd be holding tight on the border restrictions for now. Low numbers in both places. While it's quite possible (likely?) for Omicron to "rip" you'd hold for the time being surely. And I wouldn't change those rules until it escapes and gets into the community in spite the precautions.
Hard to see the point. Or do they wanna wait for a few more iterations of the disease before rejoining the world? They are going to have to deal with it eventually.

No denying things could have been managed better, though that's hardly surprising.
 

dru

Tim Horan (67)
Hard to see the point. Or do they wanna wait for a few more iterations of the disease before rejoining the world? They are going to have to deal with it eventually.

No denying things could have been managed better, though that's hardly surprising.

The point?
1. Optics.
2. Time to increase vax levels.
3. Time to push boosters.
4. Time to reconsider arrangements once it does "rip".
5. Time to see how (whether?) hospitalisation/ICU/deaths do actually flatten.

I'm not particularly critical around things not having been done better, though some of the lack of implementation I find a little baffling. Both NZ and WA have the chance to learn and do better than we have. It would be silly of them not to take the opportunity.
 

Derpus

Jason Little (69)
The point?
1. Optics.
2. Time to increase vax levels.
3. Time to push boosters.
4. Time to reconsider arrangements once it does "rip".
5. Time to see how (whether?) hospitalisation/ICU/deaths do actually flatten.

I'm not particularly critical around things not having been done better, though some of the lack of implementation I find a little baffling. Both NZ and WA have the chance to learn and do better than we have. It would be silly of them not to take the opportunity.
And then all of that resets as soon as another variant comes out. Not convinced.

Zero risk tolerance means never coming out.
 

dru

Tim Horan (67)
And then all of that resets as soon as another variant comes out. Not convinced.

Zero risk tolerance means never coming out.

Yes, it "resets" once they are in a better position for it, and when they have better information out of the laboratory that Aus has become. Actually, I doubt they will avoid the Omicron variant. But from a better position with better info.

We are both looking at the same information. If you are not convinced there is unlikely to be anything conversation will do, so take it as a different view point. NZ won't avoid it, but they have better control than we did as to when they fully face it.
 

Derpus

Jason Little (69)
I think you missed the point of what I meant by 'reset'. But anyway yeah, sure, different point of view.
 

waiopehu oldboy

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Patient zero was a DJ here to perform at a festival. Looks like the only thing he did wrong was not waiting for the result of his day nine test before leaving self-isolation. Gov response to be announced at 11am today & will presumably feature tighter restrictions at the border & possibly longer MIQ & self-isolation periods as Omicron is thought to have a longer incubation period.
 

dru

Tim Horan (67)
Omicron is thought to have a longer incubation period.

That seems inconsistent with the rapid infection rate. Digging in deeper though, reports suggest average onset is 3 days (quick) but can be 3-10 days. I guess NZ is worried about he 10 day side of things.

From recollection some states in Aus have used the available data to reduce quarantine. Compared to Delta where it was increased.
 

zer0

Jim Lenehan (48)
^ for better or worse neither you nor I are running NZ.

We're not yet at that 70% in favour tipping point to "let 'er rip" & I suspect DGH Bloomfield will be advising PM Ardern that a "circuit breaker" lockdown of sorts for two to four weeks is in order. I further suspect that PM Ardern will scale that back somewhat but we'll still be looking at increased restrictions, esp at the border, sooner rather than later & probably for longer than we'd want.

Edit: remember also that a single case of Delta in the community sent us into full lockdown for a month. I don't expect an exact repeat due to higher vaccination rates & Omicron appearing to be less of a threat to the health system (esp at the WTF do we do now? end of things) but there will surely be a reaction of some kind: even during the silly season, doing nothing just won't be an option.

Well it's in Auckland, so of course they'll drop the hammer.
 

wamberal

Phil Kearns (64)
The current strategy in Australia is confusing to say the least. On the one hand we are relaxing many of the rules, including the definition of a close contact. On the other hand we are "encouraged" to wear masks when we cannot maintain social distancing.

The Qld Health chappie says "we are all going to get it" more or less.

Hospitality business owners in NSW are quoted as saying that their patronage has plummeted since Domicron opened things up.

Its a dog's breakfast.
 

cyclopath

George Smith (75)
Staff member
The current strategy in Australia is confusing to say the least. On the one hand we are relaxing many of the rules, including the definition of a close contact. On the other hand we are "encouraged" to wear masks when we cannot maintain social distancing.

The Qld Health chappie says "we are all going to get it" more or less.

Hospitality business owners in NSW are quoted as saying that their patronage has plummeted since Domicron opened things up.

Its a dog's breakfast.
It really is. Obviously funding for PCRs has been curtailed behind the scenes - why else would pathology companies who have made fortunes from COVID PCR testing be shutting doors at midday in some clinics with hundreds waiting?
That's fine, if the alternative is in place, and if the messaging and plan for how and who to test is clear. It isn't.
RATs are coming in their millions, but not here yet in sufficient numbers to take up the slack. And so far they have cleverly shifted testing from Government pays to user pays, which to me is pretty poor in the face of a pandemic.
Different states have been requiring PCRs with different time-frames and conditions to allow entry; certain work-places are insisting on PCRs before workers can return from isolating (with or without a confirmed case) leaving workers and businesses in limbo; immigration have their requirements too. They have gutted the testing process before the next option was ready to roll.
Now we have the NSW Premier writing a fluff piece in the paper about hope and faith in dealing with this. Without trying to instigate a religious debate, I would prefer governing, rather than lay-preaching, to solve logistic issues.
Please don't @me about whose brand of politics is better or worse - I don't care, and we aint doing that thread - this is about the ones who have the job doing it properly, rather than half-assed catch-up at every turn.
 

Dan54

Tim Horan (67)
Yep, well I have to say I not sure what the answer is. I was talking to a few rellies who were adamant that it's time to open things up, but I will bet they go crook about the Omicron case getting into the community! We know it going to hit here, Gov't has been saying as much for lasr few weeks, but their reasoning is (and I neither agree nor disagree as I don't know) if they can hold borders until March a good number will have their booster shot. As I retired it not making any difference to me , apart from missing some sport and son not being able to get back.
My trouble just maybe , that I listen to people who supposedly know about these things (epidemiologosts, Drs etc) , so if they tell me to wear a mask, I do that, if thay say have a vax ,I do it etc. So if they say it safe to let people travel freely etc ,I guess I will believe them.
 
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