COVID-19 Stuff Here

[Derpus]

^^
All of that makes perfect sense which makes the fuck around all the more perplexing.

 

[stoff]

How can mug punters like most of us here have an informed opinion when the same stats are presented in different ways?
For example:
Queensland death toll released 17 Jan, 7 died of whom 5 were fully vaccinated.
So Chief Health Officer Dr John Gerrard issued a stark new statistic based on numbers coming from hospitals around the state, saying the unvaccinated are 24 times more likely to end up in intensive care than someone who has had all three shots.

Last I looked double jabbed = fully vaccinated. Now we are being asked to ignore that metric and focus on triple jabbed statistics.
It appears to me that official figures are presented in such a way as to inflame fear of the virus and make government decisions look good.

Omicron: a deep dive into the data

The science on Omicron is starting to settle, so what does it reveal about the new dominant strain’s infectiousness, mortality and vaccine resistance.

www.theage.com.au

This may help explain.

 

[dru]

Omicron: a deep dive into the data

The science on Omicron is starting to settle, so what does it reveal about the new dominant strain’s infectiousness, mortality and vaccine resistance.

www.theage.com.au

This may help explain.

Good article.

 

[formerflanker]

Good to hear of your recovery Tex. Hope all vestiges are soon gone.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Omicron: a deep dive into the data

The science on Omicron is starting to settle, so what does it reveal about the new dominant strain’s infectiousness, mortality and vaccine resistance.

www.theage.com.au

This may help explain.

That was a fantastic article and an example of the kind of serious journalism I wish we had more of in Australia. As someone with no background in any medical field. even I was able to understand the analysis.

What I took away from it is that the new variant is isn't as likely to make you really crook but at the same time you're significantly more likely to get it. Which fortunately aligns with other articles I've read. Getting a booster appears to help as well, which I've already done, so huzzah to that,

 

[Derpus]

“We’re clearly seeing much lower mortality than with previous waves,” says University of NSW infectious diseases modeller Associate Professor James Wood. “My guesstimate is about 20-times lower fatality rate in this wave than in the NSW Delta wave. It’s pretty obvious just from the standard reporting curves for each country that mortality is generally well down.”

Pretty encouraging.

 

[Sully]

No, you are not immune. Your immunity is improved compared to someone who is both infection-naive and vaccination-naive.
Yes, you can carry and transmit the virus.
Coronaviruses mutate frequently, hence annual issues with the common cold, often associated with forms of coronavirus (4 of the 7 identified coronaviruses fall into this category). There is some baseline immunity, but you can still get a cold.
Too many people look at this as a binary situation. It isn't. Vaccination is aimed at reducing likelihood of contracting the virus, mitigating the severity of symptoms if it is contracted, and reducing the likelihood of hospitalisation and death as well. There is plenty of evidence to these effects.
There is no 0 v 1 argument.

I am sorry that you still have to explain this, this far into the pandemic.

 

[Pfitzy]

This makes it pretty clear:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1482991873190936576

 

[stoff]

quite amazing that they state this,



pretty well every evolutionary biologist has been predicting that the bug will become less deadly, there is no benefit in it becoming more deadly, killing the host quickly snuffs out infections/the reproduction process

It's goal is to reproduce, killing the host isn't an evolutionary benefit

I think he is talking more about the speed of the change rather than the change itself, but at the end of the day he is a journo, not an epidemiologist. I think it was a pretty measured piece and hopefully informative for others on this thread.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Pretty encouraging.

I'm not so sure D. I really don't believe the rate of fatalities as a proportion of cases is a good comparative measure. In terms of fatalities, the actual, raw figure numbers ought to be the concern regardless of how many or how few cases there are. Omicron has resulted in much higher numbers of deaths than Delta did. Most people perhaps don't get as sick but many more actually die.

 

[Derpus]

I'm not so sure D. I really don't believe the rate of fatalities as a proportion of cases is a good comparative measure. In terms of fatalities, the actual, raw figure numbers ought to be the concern regardless of how many or how few cases there are. Omicron has resulted in much higher numbers of deaths than Delta did. Most people perhaps don't get as sick but many more actually die.

Yeah but its an encouraging trend, right. The disease will surely become endemic and if it continues to become milder over time that is a good thing.

Then again, I really don't know what I'm talking about.

 

[dru]

Yeah but its an encouraging trend, right. The disease will surely become endemic and if it continues to become milder over time that is a good thing.

Then again, I really don't know what I'm talking about.

It is a commonly discussed and wide-held view. But has led to some concern in certain areas.

Covid pandemic 'nowhere near over,' WHO says | CNN

Covid-19 was declared a pandemic nearly two years ago. We still don't know when it will finish.

edition.cnn.com

My irritation is much more with those with a predetermined position of anti-vax and anti-health/authorities, grasping on to whatever they can to elicit a positive response. In advanced economies we sit with a broad spectrum of some form of protection through vaccination - Australia fortunately being on top of the list (in spite the determination of the anti-tax brigade). Globally immunisation programmes are barely begun and there is plenty of opportunity for more nasty strains to emerge. Seriously, we should all be following the health advice from the authorities who actually are qualified and study it.

FWIW, in species like bats, densely packed communal animals with huge risk of viral survival, many virus have actually evolved with the bats to live entirely comfortably together over thousands of years. Those populations (both host and virus) are entirely healthy. There are even claims that the virus in this case are a positive contributor to the species micro-biome. Not so much if the virus crosses the species barrier, of course.

Of course no-one is scared about bubonic plague or Spanish Flu anymore - that trend to mild (or die out) is real. But whether it happens in a couple of seasons, or hundreds, is a different matter. And an anticipated trend does not mean there won't major problems even if the down-trend is apparent. Backing off vaccination would be mindless, more to the point we need vaccination to extend to all countries to the greatest extent possible.

I'm not sure I would use the word "encouraging", maybe "fortunate, for now".

 

[formerflanker]

Hopefully we seeing the beginning of the end of restrictions around the world.
Israel and the UK seem to be making noises in that direction.

 

[Pfitzy]

The UK would be easing restrictions so crybaby Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson can try to hang onto his job.

 

[Rob42]

The UK would be easing restrictions so crybaby Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson can try to hang onto his job.

Or, y'know, because their case numbers are doing this:

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

I'm not so sure D. I really don't believe the rate of fatalities as a proportion of cases is a good comparative measure. In terms of fatalities, the actual, raw figure numbers ought to be the concern regardless of how many or how few cases there are. Omicron has resulted in much higher numbers of deaths than Delta did. Most people perhaps don't get as sick but many more actually die.

The raw number of deaths has increased, no doubt. The numbers here in Australia with our highly vaccinated population are still very low, however. As of this morning on Worldometers, our death toll stands at 2843 or 110 per million population, which is close to the best among advanced economies.

I don't think anyone seriously believed we were going to be able to avoid a rise in death toll at some point, but we've managed to avoid the worst of it through a mixture of good luck and good management.

 

[Derpus]

It is a commonly discussed and wide-held view. But has led to some concern in certain areas.

Covid pandemic 'nowhere near over,' WHO says | CNN

Covid-19 was declared a pandemic nearly two years ago. We still don't know when it will finish.

edition.cnn.com

My irritation is much more with those with a predetermined position of anti-vax and anti-health/authorities, grasping on to whatever they can to elicit a positive response. In advanced economies we sit with a broad spectrum of some form of protection through vaccination - Australia fortunately being on top of the list (in spite the determination of the anti-tax brigade). Globally immunisation programmes are barely begun and there is plenty of opportunity for more nasty strains to emerge. Seriously, we should all be following the health advice from the authorities who actually are qualified and study it.

FWIW, in species like bats, densely packed communal animals with huge risk of viral survival, many virus have actually evolved with the bats to live entirely comfortably together over thousands of years. Those populations (both host and virus) are entirely healthy. There are even claims that the virus in this case are a positive contributor to the species micro-biome. Not so much if the virus crosses the species barrier, of course.

Of course no-one is scared about bubonic plague or Spanish Flu anymore - that trend to mild (or die out) is real. But whether it happens in a couple of seasons, or hundreds, is a different matter. And an anticipated trend does not mean there won't major problems even if the down-trend is apparent. Backing off vaccination would be mindless, more to the point we need vaccination to extend to all countries to the greatest extent possible.

I'm not sure I would use the word "encouraging", maybe "fortunate, for now".

I didn't mean to imply anti-vax sentiment. I do the vax.

It just seems cause for optimism and I remain optimistic.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

I think the UK have, after a very bumpy start, weathered the worst of this. They got on the front foot with the vaccines as soon as they were available and their death toll has levelled off significantly.

 

[Pfitzy]

Or, y'know, because their case numbers are doing this:

Which looks spiffing when you use a graph dating back to August to make the drop look more dramatic. Here's their 2-week pattern:

They appear to be past a significant peak, with the average dropping. However, they've also recently changed their
testing rules during this period, so that will need some time to set in.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

 

[Pfitzy]

Meanwhile, in Australia:

Yes the leading line is overly dramatic, but it is funny as hell