Super rugby 2016, the run home

[Lindommer]

version 1.0

The charges are approaching the final corner, the fancied ones are positioning themselves for a surge in the home straight and the whips are about to get cracking. An overview of the table as it now stands with six rounds to go.

Crusaders (37 points/played 9/won 8/298 for/168 against/130 pd) Clan/Tahs/Blues/Chiefs/Rebels/Canes
Chiefs (37/10/8/342/238/104) bye/Rebels/Tahs/Saders/Reds/Clan
Highlanders (32/10/7/261/179/82) Saders/bye/Canes/Kings/Jaguares/Chiefs
Hurricanes (31/10/6/302/226/76 Reds/bye/Clan/Blues/Tahs/Saders
Stormers (29/9/6/248/158/90) Sunwolves/Bulls/Cheetahs/Rebels/Force/Kings
Bulls (28/9/6+1D/250/190/60) Tahs/Stormers/Lions/Jaguares/Sunwolves/Cheetahs
Lions (27/9/6/268/235/33) Blues/Jaguares/Bulls/Sharks/Kings/Jaguares
Sharks (26/10/5+1/206/171/35) Jaguares/Kings/bye/Lions/Cheetahs/Sunwolves
Brumbies (25/10/6/247/225/22) Rebels/bye/Sunwolves/Reds/Blues/Force
Waratahs (25/9/5/225/181/44) Bulls/Saders/Chiefs/Sunwolves/Canes/Blues
Blues (25/9/5+1/230/218/12) Lions/Force/Saders/Canes/Brumbies/Tahs
Rebels (23/9/5/211/228/17) Brumbies/Chiefs/Force/Stormers/Saders/Reds
Cheetahs (12/10/2/262/276/14) Kings/bye/Stormers/Force/Sharks/Bulls
Jaguares (12/9/2/237/254/17) Sharks/Lions/Kings/Bulls/Clan/Lions
Reds (12/10/2+1/179/242/63) Canes/Sunwolves/bye/Brumbies/Chiefs/Rebels
Force (10/10/2/183/321/138) bye/Blues/Rebels/Cheetahs/Stormers/Brumbies
Sunwolves (7/9/1/202/362/160) Stormers/Reds/Brumbies/Tahs/Bulls/Sharks
Kings (4/9/1/170/418/248) Cheetahs/Sharks/Jaguares/Clan/Lions/Stormers

Comments:

• Rebels have a (slim) chance of making the finals, all those below them can start making plans for next year.
• Crusaders - looking good to top the table. They'll lose a bit of bark playing their fellow Kiwis but should count on at least two wins in their remaining intra-NZ matches.
• Chiefs - may drop down a spot or two, no points for the bye and three tough matches left.
• Highlanders - see Chiefs
• Hurricanes - ditto. Chiefs, Clan and Canes are effectively playing for two spots.
• Stormers - shouldn't have any trouble topping their pool, probably only one loss in their run home.
• Bulls - three tough matches left, might fall just short.
• Lions - easy run home, Sharks match in Jo'burg should see them top their pool.
• Sharks - a bye and a touch too far back's a bridge too far for the finals.
• Brumbies - three easy home games but no points for the bye. Neck and neck with the Tahs in the Oz group.
• Waratahs - toughish finish with two away Kiwi fixtures. Are they hitting enough form to push them into the finals?
• Blues - bottom of the Kiwi group, now spoilers.
• Rebels - a good year, nice to see improvement, but the wheels are about to fall off.
• Cheetahs - poor bastards were raided by the other Saffer teams, again. Can't compete without Juan Smith and Heinrich Brussow.
• Jaguares - very disappointing seeing they're basically the Argie test team. Maybe top level rugby week-in/week-out's too much for them at this stage.
• Reds, Force, Sunwolves and Kings - about what I expected.
  
  
  
  away matches in italics red points differentials are minus colloquial tags, Canes/Clan/Saders/Tahs, used for the sake of brevity

 

[Braveheart81]

Aren't the Chiefs, Clan and Hurricanes all likely to make the finals?

Surely the Waratahs, Brumbies and Rebels are playing for one spot.

It looks to me like somewhere around 45 points will get you into the finals if you're an Aus/NZ team.

 

[Lindommer]

There are seven intra-Kiwi fixtures remaining compared to four Australian, and of those four intra-Oz matches three of them are the top sides against the Reds or Force. The Kiwi sides, including the Blues, will take points off each other. Australia are still a hope of two finalists.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Should also fear the Blues taking points off both the Brumbies and Tahs in Auckland in the last two games. They really do have the opportunity to be spoilers.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

My two cents worth Sethfricka-wise:

http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/super-rugby-2016-the-run-home-part-i/

Parts II &III to follow.................

 

[Lindommer]

I've done a run home piece on the forum for the last coupla years, not trying to steal your thunder, woh; the blog's our window to the world while the forum's our "behind closed doors" fun, so to speak. Keep up the good work.

Various contributors have taken the baton and written versions 1.1/1.2/1.3, etc. in past years. If you'd like to do next week's please do, and I don't mind in the least if you take what you like from it to do your next chapters on the blog. Personally, I'd like a Saffer and/or a Kiwi to do a few next chapters of my forum thread.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Yeah, mine actually started as a forum piece but got too big so I just said "fuckit, I'll just throw it in Sully's lap & see if he can make it work on the front page". I'll be tracking my predictions, obviously, so happy to help out/ offer a kiwi perspective.

FWIW I think you're 90% on the money but I've got Clan snatching the last wildcard from (probably) 'tahs.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

I've done a run home piece on the forum for the last coupla years, not trying to steal your thunder, woh; the blog's our window to the world while the forum's our "behind closed doors" fun, so to speak. Keep up the good work.

Various contributors have taken the baton and written versions 1.1/1.2/1.3, etc. in past years. If you'd like to do next week's please do, and I don't mind in the least if you take what you like from it to do your next chapters on the blog. Personally, I'd like a Saffer and/or a Kiwi to do a few next chapters of my forum thread.

In the olden days, to get a better feel for Rugby in all of its glory you went along to the Club Rooms, rather than read the professionally produced articles in the Newspaper.
Not many club rooms around these days, nor much content in the newspaper. The G&GR Forums are the new Club Rooms. The Blog has good articles, but the Blog wang leaves a bit to be desired compared to the Forum wang.

 

[boyo]

• Rebels - a good year, nice to see improvement, but the wheels are about to fall off.

Prescient.

 

[Benaud]

Sucks to be the kiwis. They've got the 4 best teams in the comp and might only get 2 teams in the finals to show for it.

 

[Benaud]

Ah no, we get 5 spots between us don't we? So they'll get 3.

 

[Slim 293]

The Kiwis could actually get 4 teams in the finals........

If the finals were next week the Crusaders, Chiefs, Highlanders and Hurricanes would all make it through.

 

[Benaud]

Yeah as the top 4 sides in the comp.

That'd be a better reflection of their dominance, but they can't all record wins playing against each other for the last few rounds.

 

[Slim 293]

It depends on how the Brumbies and Tahs go over the remaining rounds, but the most likely scenario is that only one Australian team will make it through plus four Kiwi teams in the finals.........

 

[Benaud]

Realistically probably a lot riding on that Tahs vs Canes game.

I'm backing the last round where all 4 play off against each other to knock one out. All 4 almost have to go undefeated against non-kiwi opponents to pull it off.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Version 1.1

1. Crusaders (37 points/played 10/won 8/324 for/202 against/122 pd) Remaining fixtures: Waratahs (Home), Blues (Away), Chiefs (Fiji), Rebels (H), Hurricanes (H).
2. Chiefs 37/10/8/342/238/104 Rebels (H), Waratahs (A), Crusaders (Fiji), Reds (A), Highlanders (A).
3. Highlanders 37/11/8/295/205/90 BYE, Hurricanes (A), Kings (A), Jaguares (A), Chiefs (H).
4. Hurricanes 36/11/7/331/240/91 BYE, Highlanders (H), Blues (H), Waratahs (A), Crusaders (A).
5. Lions 32/10/7/311/240/71 Jaguares (H), Bulls (A), Sharks (H), Kings (H), Jaguares (A).
6. Stormers 31/10/6/265/175/90 Bulls (A), Cheetahs (H), Rebels (A), Force(A), Kings (H).
7. Waratahs 30/10/6/256/189/67 Crusaders (A), Chiefs (H), Sunwolves (A), Hurricanes (H), Blues (A).
8. Sharks 30/11/6/231/193/38 Kings (H), BYE, Lions (A), Cheetahs (H), Sunwolves (H).
9. Brumbies 29/11/7/277/247/30 BYE, Sunwolves (Home), Reds (H), Blues (A), Force (H).
10. Bulls 28/10/6/258/221/37 Stormers (H), Lions (H), Jaguares (A), Sunwolves (H), Cheetahs (A).
11. Blues 25/10/5/235/261/-26 Force (A), Crusaders (H), Hurricanes (A), Brumbies (H), Waratahs (H).
12. Rebels 23/10/5/235/258/-23 Chiefs (A), Force (H), Stormers (H), Crusaders (A), Reds (A).
13. Cheetahs 16/11/3/296/296/0 BYE, Stormers (A), Force (H), Sharks (A), Bulls (H).
14. Jaguares 13/10/2/259/279/-20 Lions (A), Kings (A), Bulls (H), Highlanders (H), Lions (H).
15. Reds 12/11/2/198/309/-111 Sunwolves (H), BYE, Brumbies (A), Chiefs (H), Rebels (H).
16. Force 10/10/2/183/321/-138 Blues (H), Rebels (A), Cheetahs (A), Stormers (H), Brumbies (A).
17. Sunwolves 9/10/1/229/379-150 Reds (A), Brumbies (A), Waratahs (H), Bulls (A), Sharks (A).
18. Kings 4/10/1/190/452/-262 Sharks (A), Jaguares (H), Highlanders (H), Lions (A), Stormers (A).

Observations:

* Any remote chance the Rebels & Blues had of making the playoffs is now well & truly gone: there are now four South African teams chasing three QF places, and six Australasian chasing five:
* Crusaders blew a golden opportunity to put some distance between them & the pack. Waratahs match just went from "good one to win" to "must win".
* Chiefs seem certain to take more points off Rebels than Crusaders off Waratahs. Expect them to be top of table this time next week.
* Highlanders & Hurricanes have either timed their runs to perfection or left it a week late, only Crusaders' & Chiefs' Round 13 results will tell us which.
* Lions in the box seat for Africa 2, two points clear of the Sharks & a game in hand.
* Stormers three ahead in Africa 1 due to all their losses being by seven or less.
* Waratahs a point ahead in the Australian Conference & a game in hand but with a harder row to hoe. Must win in Christchurch or risk being run down.
* Sharks hanging in there but have played an extra game so need Lions and/ or Bulls to start losing.
* Brumbies could be undone by their failure to secure bonus points, only the Kings (!) having collected fewer.
* Bulls are just two points adrift of the Africa wildcard & with a game in hand it's theirs to lose.

 

[Sully]

More info here.

http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/?p=94913

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Round 14 Key Matches

Huge weekend coming up with five games having massive implications in terms of who finishes where:

Hurricanes v Highlanders @ Westpac Stadium. Winner all but certain to qualify for a wildcard, loser will be battling it out with whoever finishes second in the Australian Conference for the final wildcard.

Waratahs v Chiefs @ Allianz Stadium. Brumbies will surely flog the Sunwolves so Waratahs must win this to stay top of the Australian Conference. Chiefs have only a one point lead at the top of the New Zealand Conference so really need a BP win to stay safe.

Blues v Crusaders @ Eden Park. Blues are gone but could still rain on a few parades. Crusaders are only a point adrift of Chiefs & will know exactly what's needed to get back on top, esp. IF the 'tahs pull off an upset.

Stormers v Cheetahs @ Newlands. Sharks have a bye so Stormers can regain the African wildcard with a win, or go back to the top of the Africa 1 Conference should the Bulls lose.

Bulls v Lions @ Loftus Versfeld. A BP win keeps Bulls ahead of Stormers in Africa 1 on matches won, a loss puts them back in wildcard territory & vulnerable to Sharks. A Lions win by any margin keeps them top of Africa Group.

Biggest weekend of non-Finals Super Rugby ever?

 

[Lindommer]

version 1.2

Corner safely negotiated and the favourites are starting to move forward. Sadly, a couple of triers are finding the pace a little too frantic.

Chiefs (42 points/played 11/won 9/378 for/253 against/125 pd) Tahs/Saders/Reds/Clan
Crusaders (41/11/9/353/212/141) Blues/Chiefs/Rebels/Canes
Lions (37/11/8/363/264/99) Bulls/Sharks/Kings/Jaguares
Highlanders (37/11/8/295/205/90) Canes/Kings/Jaguares/Chiefs
Hurricanes (36/11/7/331/240/91) Clan/Blues/Tahs/Saders
Sharks (35/12/5+1d/284/193/91) bye/Lions/Cheetahs/Sunwolves
Bulls (32/11/7+1/275/234/41) Lions/Jaguares/Sunwolves/Cheetahs
Stormers (32/11/6+1/278/192/86) Cheetahs/Rebels/Force/Kings
Waratahs (30/11/6/266/218/48) Chiefs/Sunwolves/Canes/Blues
Brumbies (29/11/7/277/247/30) Sunwolves/Reds/Blues/Force
Blues (29/11/6+1/252/274/22) Saders/Canes/Brumbies/Tahs
Rebels (23/11/5/250/294/44) Force/Stormers/Saders/Reds
Cheetahs (16/11/3/296/296/-) Stormers/Force/Sharks/Bulls
Reds (16/12/3+1/233/334/101) bye/Brumbies/Chiefs/Rebels
Jaguares (13/11/2/283/331/48) Kings/Bulls/Clan/Lions
Force (11/11/2/196/338/142) Rebels/Cheetahs/Stormers/Brumbies
Sunwolves (9/11/1+1/244/414/170) Brumbies/Tahs/Bulls/Sharks
Kings (4/11/1/190/505/315) Jaguares/Clan/Lions/Stormers

Comments:

• Four Kiwi (Chiefs/Saders/Clan/Canes), two Oz (Tahs/Brumbies) and four Saffer sides(Lions/Sharks/Bulls/Stormers) are still in the race for eight finals spots. Intra-Kiwi and Saffer matches crucial, and fascinating.
• Chiefs - very tough at the top of the Kiwi group. Massive matches against the Saders and Clan. Bonus point won against the Rebels may prove invaluable.
• Crusaders - putting together a very Crusaders-like run home with good form. North Island matches should be rippers.
• Lions - outscored their opponents by 66 points in two matches! Finally reaching their potential, but tough matches against the Bulls and Sharks.
• Highlanders - three away matches and two tough games left. Hellish travel schedule. Are the Clan good enough to do a repeat?
• Hurricanes - probably the toughest run home of any finals contender. Will the Blues spoil their party?
• Sharks - bye week will cost them dearly but balanced by two relatively easy final matches at home.
• Bulls - One tough + three easyish matches left. Should top their group.
• Stormers - tricky bit of travel to negotiate but fixtures against the lesser sides should help them.
• Waratahs - MUST win both home fixtures against Kiwi sides, tough assignment.
• Brumbies - three home games against sides in the bottom five, can they (finally) grab some bonus points? Got the Tahs in their sights.
• Blues - bottom of the Kiwi group, now spoilers.
• Rebels - a good year, nice to see improvement, but the wheels are about to fall falling off.
• Cheetahs - poor bastards were raided by the other Saffer teams, again. Can't compete without Juan Smith and Heinrich Brussow.
• Reds - HTF did the QRU brains trust think sticking with RG was ever going to work? Sadly, a lot of damage has been done and we now see only minor improvement.
• Jaguares - very disappointing seeing they're basically the Argie test team. Maybe top level rugby week-in/week-out's too much for them at this stage.
• Force, Sunwolves and Kings - about what I expected.
  
  
  away matches in italics red points differentials are minus colloquial tags, Canes/Clan/Saders/Tahs, used for the sake of brevity

 

[Braveheart81]

version 1.21 jigawatts

As we move into the June test series break, the only things fans have to look forward to this weekend is reading this post.

All teams have now played 12 games and the byes are done. Everyone has three matches left.

Crusaders (45 points/played 12/10 wins/379 for/233 against/146pd) Chiefs/Rebels/Canes
Lions (42/12/9/419/284/135) Sharks/Kings/Jaguares
Chiefs (42/12/9/403/298/105) Saders/Reds/Clan
Hurricanes (40/12/8/358/260/98) Blues/Tahs/Saders
Highlanders (38/12/8/315/232/83) Kings/Jaguares/Chiefs
Stormers (36/12/7+1/309/216/93) Rebels/Force/Kings
Sharks (35/12/7+1/284/193/91) Lions/Cheetahs/Sunwolves
Brumbies (34/12/8/343/252/91) Reds/Blues/Force

Waratahs (34/12/7/311/243/68) Sunwolves/Canes/Blues
Bulls (32/12/7+1/295/290/5) Jaguares/Sunwolves/Cheetahs
Blues (30/12/6+1/273/300/27) Canes/Brumbies/Tahs
Rebels (27/12/6/277/316/39) Stormers/Saders/Reds
Cheetahs (17/12/3/320/327/7) Force/Sharks/Bulls
Reds (16/12/3+1/233/334/101) Brumbies/Chiefs/Rebels
Jaguares (14/12/2/305/360/55) Bulls/Clan/Lions
Force (12/12/2/218/365/147) Cheetahs/Stormers/Brumbies
Sunwolves (9/12/1+1/249/480/231) Tahs/Bulls/Sharks
Kings (8/12/2/219/527/308) Clan/Lions/Stormers

Comments:

• Four Kiwi (Chiefs/Saders/Clan/Canes), two Oz (Tahs/Brumbies) and four Saffer sides(Lions/Sharks/Bulls/Stormers) are still in the race for eight finals spots. Intra-Kiwi and Saffer matches crucial, and fascinating.
• Crusaders - on top of the table and could secure top spot with a win away against the Chiefs. If they lose it will open things right up.
• Lions - should win their last three matches and could top the table if the Crusaders don't beat the Chiefs.
• Chiefs - top of the table last week but a big loss to the Waratahs makes things slightly tricky for them. Will need to win two of their last three to make sure they make the finals.
• Hurricanes - a gutsy win against the Highlanders was vital. A win against the Blues at home should secure a finals berth.
• Highlanders - Should secure two bonus point victories away against the Jags and Moondogs but may still need to win their last game at home to the Chiefs to make the finals.
• Stormers - will need to win their last three to top their pool.
• Sharks - will probably need to take points away against the Lions to make the finals.
• Brumbies - will need to win their last three games to make the finals. Bonus points will decide who tops the group.
• Waratahs - MUST win their last three matches to make the finals. Doing so could put two Aussie teams in the playoffs.
• Bulls - Three winnable games to finish. Could leapfrog the Stormers if they lose a match.
• Blues - three games against finals contenders. Have the ability to ruin multiple seasons.
• Rebels - will be looking for two more wins to finish their best season ever.
• Cheetahs - struggling their way home.
• Reds - tough games to finish. Will be aiming to win their final match at home against the Rebels.
• Jaguares - they finish with three games at home but they need to improve and stop giving away red cards if they want to win any of them.
• Force, Sunwolves and Kings - about what I expected.
  
  
  away matches in italics red points differentials are minus colloquial tags, Canes/Clan/Saders/Tahs, used for the sake of brevity