Super Rugby AU Rd 6 - Brumbies v Force

[MarkJ]

Brumbies team:

1. Harry Lloyd

2. Folau Fainga'a

3. James Slipper

4. Darcy Swain

5. Cadeyrn Neville

6. Rob Valetini

7. Jahrome Brown

8. Pete Samu

9. Nic White (c)

10. Noah Lolesio

11. Mack Hansen

12. Irae Simone

13. Len Ikitau

14. Andy Muirhead

15. Tom Banks

REPLACEMENTS

16. Lachlan Lonergan

17. Fred Kaihea*

18. Sefo Kautai**

19. James Tucker

20. Rory Scott*

21. Ryan Lonergan

22. Reesjan Pasitoa

23. Issak Fines-Leleiwasa

 

[RugbyReg]

Full Team:

1. Tom Robertson, 2. Feleti Kaitu’u, 3. Greg Holmes, 4. Jeremy Thrush, 5. Sitaleki Timani, 6. Fergus Lee-Warner, 7. Kane Koteka, 8. Brynard Stander (c), 9. Tomás Cubelli, 10. Jake McIntyre, 11. Marcel Brache, 12. Henry Taefu, 13. Tevita Kuridrani, 14. Byron Ralston, 15. Jack McGregor.
RESERVES: 16. Jack Winchester, 17. Angus Wagner, 18. Santiago Medrano, 19. Ryan McCauley, 20. Tim Anstee, 21. Ian Prior, 22. Jono Lance, 23. Jordan Olowofela.

 

[MarkJ]

When was the last time Slipper started at tighthead?

 

[Dctarget]

I’m thinking the Force can cause an upset here with their forwards.

 

[Equalizer]

Kearney and Kahui will be missed for their steadying influence. Not sure why we are persisting with Brache on the wing when Lacey is probably a better option. That said, Brache will now score 3 trys hahahha.

 

[Slim 293]

When was the last time Slipper started at tighthead?

He didn't start, but he shifted to TH in the second half of a few Super Rugby games last year.........

 

[Forcefield]

Scariest thing about the Brumbies is their tight 5. No AAA and no Sio and Slipper at 3 is far less intimidating. Think the Brumbies still have our number, but I hope we stay within 7.

We may even have an advantage in the set piece.

 

[Easy from the Stands]

Very impressed with Jake Mac last week. He is certainly starting to gel with all the players around him he has only met this yr.
Even more impressed that he is starting after that PetaiaThor sandwich at the end of the game.
His knee ligaments must be made of the same stuff as Gumby the bendable toy!!

 

[Jets]

Interesting that Lance is on the bench this week. Maybe there is pressure on McIntyre to lift his game. Not sure Lance covers as many positions as he used to, pretty much just a 10 now.

 

[Kevin77]

Scariest thing about the Brumbies is their tight 5. No AAA and no Sio and Slipper at 3 is far less intimidating. Think the Brumbies still have our number, but I hope we stay within 7.

We may even have an advantage in the set piece.

It's an interesting one. Clearly they're ahead of us but we have been performing ok.

Since we played them we're starting with Greg Holmes who's a superior scrummager to Medrano and have added Timani in the tight five. they're significantly weakened there.

We're also playing Cubelli and McIntyre who are significantly better than Prior and Lance.
I think we were also further back than them in terms of combinations.

I'm not sure we can win but you never know. We're due to click sometime.

The back three worries me a little. I'm no Brache fan but I actually think he was half decent on the wing last week perhaps with Kearney providing solidity and chat. Kearney is a huge loss but McGregor is a decent player and a different more attacking option. If we can be solid then perhaps he might spark something and definitely allows a second playmaker to take pressure off McIntyre.

 

[Jets]

McGregor was great last year. Hasn't hit that form this year but hasn't really had many opportunities. Hopefully Kearney has been giving him lots of advice to help him.

 

[Easy from the Stands]

Interesting that Lance is on the bench this week. Maybe there is pressure on McIntyre to lift his game. Not sure Lance covers as many positions as he used to, pretty much just a 10 now.

I would say Miotti has marked his own cards. I would not pick him either when he basically signed to go to Scotland next yr before he even played 40mins with The Force. Clearly just filling in time. Good player though.

 

[Easy from the Stands]

It's an interesting one. Clearly they're ahead of us but we have been performing ok.

Since we played them we're starting with Greg Holmes who's a superior scrummager to Medrano and have added Timani in the tight five. they're significantly weakened there.

We're also playing Cubelli and McIntyre who are significantly better than Prior and Lance.
I think we were also further back than them in terms of combinations.

I'm not sure we can win but you never know. We're due to click sometime.

The back three worries me a little. I'm no Brache fan but I actually think he was half decent on the wing last week perhaps with Kearney providing solidity and chat. Kearney is a huge loss but McGregor is a decent player and a different more attacking option. If we can be solid then perhaps he might spark something and definitely allows a second playmaker to take pressure off McIntyre.

Kev you make a great point about combinations.
One of the smartest blokes I have heard speak on rugby is Ben Darwin. He spoke at IRA Coaches Training Seminar about how he began his analytics company. The basis of his PROVEN theory (across many sports including NRL, NFL, Premier League Soccer etc etc) is that the 'connectiveness' of the team is a very good indicator of team success. That is how many times an individual has played with all other members of the team at all levels. So if the Loosehead has played with the hooker 10 times, the Tighthead 20 times the Lock 15 times etc etc etc thru the whole team he comes up with the Looseheads score. Then do that for every other player in the team & you have a team score. He can almost predict game results with the only hiccup being when a lot of the players are very young or inexperienced at the higher level. It explains the Tahs woes right now & also last yr he predicted the Reds should win the comp but was worried about their very young age. He got very close!!

 

[Kevin77]

Kev you make a great point about combinations.
One of the smartest blokes I have heard speak on rugby is Ben Darwin. He spoke at IRA Coaches Training Seminar about how he began his analytics company. The basis of his PROVEN theory (across many sports including NRL, NFL, Premier League Soccer etc etc) is that the 'connectiveness' of the team is a very good indicator of team success. That is how many times an individual has played with all other members of the team at all levels. So if the Loosehead has played with the hooker 10 times, the Tighthead 20 times the Lock 15 times etc etc etc thru the whole team he comes up with the Looseheads score. Then do that for every other player in the team & you have a team score. He can almost predict game results with the only hiccup being when a lot of the players are very young or inexperienced at the higher level. It explains the Tahs woes right now & also last yr he predicted the Reds should win the comp but was worried about their very young age. He got very close!!

Absolutely. I didn't know about Ben Darwin and what you're talking about but that makes sense intuitively.

My Dad makes some decent calls and he said that what happened last year with the Aussie teams only having to play each other was a godsend. Young teams like Queensland (and the other sides blooding players after the post world cup euro/japanese drain) didn't have to face up to the Kiwi teams and get their ar$es handed to them regularly.

Instead they got a step up from underage/grade/NRC level to a competition where they could develop. Queensland were the biggest improvers but NSW also had a few young guys that came good.

The Super Rugby AU comp has been a good starting point for Australian players that might have been a touch callow. They have now had some time to get used to that level and are ready for Trans Tasman competition and hopefully there will be a bigger pool for the Wallabies to pick from.

NSW are getting their treatment right now, but a handful of that team will be better for it and as long as the coaching is good should start to improve in terms or performance/results.

 

[Purce]

It's an interesting one. Clearly they're ahead of us but we have been performing ok.

Since we played them we're starting with Greg Holmes who's a superior scrummager to Medrano and have added Timani in the tight five. they're significantly weakened there.

We're also playing Cubelli and McIntyre who are significantly better than Prior and Lance.
I think we were also further back than them in terms of combinations.

I'm not sure we can win but you never know. We're due to click sometime.

The back three worries me a little. I'm no Brache fan but I actually think he was half decent on the wing last week perhaps with Kearney providing solidity and chat. Kearney is a huge loss but McGregor is a decent player and a different more attacking option. If we can be solid then perhaps he might spark something and definitely allows a second playmaker to take pressure off McIntyre.

*replying to you because it is the last one I saw but applies to a few*

McIntyre has been well below average. Offering very little to the Force attack. Cannot figure out how he is still starting over the other two who are in a different league to him. I actually think the Force would have won 1 or 2 more games had they started one of the other two 10s. McIntyre just isn't up to it. You've paid for Miotti to be there so play him. Who cares where he goes after this season if he is your best 10 PLAY HIM. Failing that then play Lance, Force attack looked much better with him at 10 and he is a better defender... wouldn't have been brushed off by Tate like Jake was.

I agree with you on Brache, I'm not sure how he still has a gig in Super rugby. Lots of talented outside backs in Australia not on contracts. Even more filling EPS or squad spots with other pro teams.

There is a pretty good chance the Force will get parity and even dominance at scrum time with Slips out of position and Lloyd the other anchor. Front row is the only place where WF are possibly better. Sita did ok last week, needs more time to see where he is really at and the Brumbies' locks have been some of the best each week. Back row goes to the Brumbies as well. Force have good workman like players in the backrow and a guy who is probably a better locking option. I would have started FLW (Fergus Lee-Warner) at lock instead of Thrush and played Antsee at 6 so you have 2 more dynamic players in those positions. Backs is a pretty easy win to the Brumbs IMO.

I like team from the west and want to see them do well but I struggle to see them getting the W here. I think it will either be a blowout or a close win to the Brumbs if the Force manage to strangle the piggies and breakdown a bit.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Pretty much my thoughts Purce. The front row, and scrums, are where the Force are likely to win the battle, but I do have a lot of time for Harry Lloyd. Slips on the other hand is coming back from a knee injury, not the best preparation for a THP.

While FLW (Fergus Lee-Warner) is probably a better lock than No 6 atm, I think this game will showcase the two best performing No 6s in the comp, ASY (Angus Scott-Young) also up there with them.

Brumbies backs should finish on top of their opponents, but they will need good, fast and consistent ball from their under fire forwards.

Brumbies by 5.

 

[James GC]

Love to see an upset here just to throw some spice into the run to the finals.

 

[Rugbynutter39]

I would say Miotti has marked his own cards. I would not pick him either when he basically signed to go to Scotland next yr before he even played 40mins with The Force. Clearly just filling in time. Good player though.

I wonder whether we are going to retain any of the other 3 Argentina players next year.

Given miotti off to Scotland I can see why not getting game time as having a strong long term 10 is key given key role and you saw with tahs never developing other 10s by playing foley damage that can do as takes time to develop good tens and also seen success of pick and stick strategy with Noah and Harrison

 

[Forcefield]

Cubelli, I think, is signed for 2 years. Not hopeful about the other guys but you never know. Miotti was always going to go.

Love to see an upset here just to throw some spice into the run to the finals.

By throwing some spice, do you mean pretty much guaranteeing the Reds the home final?

 

[Purce]

I wonder whether we are going to retain any of the other 3 Argentina players next year.

Given miotti off to Scotland I can see why not getting game time as having a strong long term 10 is key given key role and you saw with tahs never developing other 10s by playing foley damage that can do as takes time to develop good tens and also seen success of pick and stick strategy with Noah and Harrison

That is all well and good but the other 2 options are turning 27 next month and 30 years old. They don't have a project 10. I would somewhat agree if they had a Lolesio, Harrison, Carter x 2, Pasitoa, etc etc. Hopefully they pick one up for next season.

If Miotti is their best 10 they should be playing him. It is a waste of money to not. They are Pros, if he is moving on next year then that is fair and in his right... it is a very amateur mindset to not play him because he is off to another gig next year. And IMO it does a disservice to the rest of the squad by not playing their best 10.

Either way for the Force's sake I hope McIntyre improves, he is clearly Sampson's favorite, but I think he has reached his ceiling.