Brumbies v Reds Super Rugby round 14

[Troy]

I haven't done the exact maths, but it looks like the Reds could get through to the top 6 without displacing the Brumbies.

Yes they can especially since they're competing against the Highlighters & Shorks for spot no 6, who both have to play the top two teams in their respective conferences, and the Reds still play the Highlighters in Brissey.

 

[The Red Baron]

Yes they can especially since they're competing against the Highlighters & Shorks for spot no 6, who both have to play the top two teams in their respective conferences, and the Reds still play the Highlighters in Brissey.

Exactly right. Of the Reds, Shorks and Clan, the Reds have the easiest run home. Fingers crossed that either the Shorks or Clan (or both!) drop their bundle. The good thing is, both teams have a habit of losing their shit at the end of the regular season too.

There might well be two Aus teams in the finals yet. Realistically, if the Brumbies stay in third overall, then the Reds need to climb to 5th. If the Reds just scrape in to 6th, they will play each other in the first week of the finals.

 

[tigerland12]

Yes they can especially since they're competing against the Highlighters & Shorks for spot no 6, who both have to play the top two teams in their respective conferences, and the Reds still play the Highlighters in Brissey.

We really needed the Cheetahs and Bulls to do us a favour this week. If those two sides managed to beat the Sharks and Clan it would of given us a massive boost.

 

[No4918]

Lucas is looking unlikely with a groin problem. Link playing games or true?

Have tipped the Clan and Sharks this week. Think its going to come down to the last 2 games at home and a win over the Highlanders will be as big as one this weekend and see both teams get into the 6. Would be pretty big in a relatively poor season. The other scenario is the wheels fall off in Canberra, i'd rather they didn't but if it gets my boys to the final i'll take it.

 

[tigerland12]

If Lucas is out that leaves a big hole in our general gameplan. Morahan is the logical choice at 15, but I sure as shit don't want him defending at fly half. And you can't really move Harris to 15 because we don't have any centers available to play 12. Obviously moving Digby to 13, Ant to 12 and Sautia to the wing is an option, but not one I would want to use.

 

[Brisbok]

If Lucas is out that leaves a big hole in our general gameplan. Morahan is the logical choice at 15, but I sure as shit don't want him defending at fly half. And you can't really move Harris to 15 because we don't have any centers available to play 12. Obviously moving Digby to 13, Ant to 12 and Sautia to the wing is an option, but not one I would want to use.

Will they not employ the same tactic on defence as they did last year? Ie. Quade to fullback, Digby defending at 10, Morahan shifting to the wing?

 

[laps]

1. Reds will need to play 80 minutes this week, not 20. (40th-60th minute vs lions).
2. We still have Fainga'a who has been putting in man of the match worthy performances in club rugby each week, so not bothered there. Lets also not forget it was Fainga'a (not Hooper or Gill) who was starting 7 and captain of the Aus 21's last year...

 

[tigerland12]

1. Reds will need to play 80 minutes this week, not 20. (40th-60th minute vs lions).
2. We still have Fainga'a who has been putting in man of the match worthy performances in club rugby each week, so not bothered there. Lets also not forget it was Fainga'a (not Hooper or Gill) who was starting 7 and captain of the Aus 21's last year...

Hooper was the 7, and the best Australian player by a country mile. Gill was also included but was taken back because QLD needed him. Haven't seen Colby this year, so I suspect, even if he is playing well for his club, Gilly and possibly Robinson will definatly take advantage of Hooper not being there (if he is suspended that is)

 

[Jiggles]

If Hooper is out I wonder if Link will start Beau & Gill together again as he did in Brisbane? Schatz is playing well, but the game plan was successful last time.

I would, even if Hooper was starting. I would get Robinson to hound Hooper/Fainga'a all game both running directly at them in attack, like the ABs did to Pocock in the RWC SF, and then in the defensive line I would have robinson roam opposite Gill having two fetching options either side.

Also Schatz took a number of head knocks last week and I would like to see him have a bit of a break, or at least come off the bench.

 

[No4918]

Also Schatz took a number of head knocks last week and I would like to see him have a bit of a break, or at least come off the bench.

Yes, he is not yet adept at taking players at the knees but i'm sure the Finger boys will be working overtime giving master classes this week.

 

[tigerland12]

Yeah was worried about Shatzie after he took a few knocks, hopefully he is okay to play, would be hard to drop him for Robinson, but playing two opensides worked well last time.

 

[gel]

1. Reds will need to play 80 minutes this week, not 20. (40th-60th minute vs lions).

^^^^^ This!!!!!!

As much as I would like the reds to win (obviously), I just can't see it happening unfortunately. I just don't know if we will be able to lift to play a full game like we did against the chiefs or saders. We took it very easy against the lions and it showed. We cannot afford to do that against the Brumbies this week.

We also have an abysmal record down there at Bruce, the win last year more to do with the Brumbies sucking big time, than with us being super awesome.

I just have a very bad feeling about this one.

 

[suckerforred]

Was Beau rested or is he injured? I believe he had a foot problem a couple of weeks ago.

 

[Slim 293]

1. Reds will need to play 80 minutes this week, not 20. (40th-60th minute vs lions).
2. We still have Fainga'a who has been putting in man of the match worthy performances in club rugby each week, so not bothered there. Lets also not forget it was Fainga'a (not Hooper or Gill) who was starting 7 and captain of the Aus 21's last year...

Colby played 8...

 

[trophyhunter]

If the Reds want to win this one, they have to do what they did to the Chiefs.....only better.

 

[BDA]

Exactly right. Of the Reds, Shorks and Clan, the Reds have the easiest run home. Fingers crossed that either the Shorks or Clan (or both!) drop their bundle. The good thing is, both teams have a habit of losing their shit at the end of the regular season too.

There might well be two Aus teams in the finals yet. Realistically, if the Brumbies stay in third overall, then the Reds need to climb to 5th. If the Reds just scrape in to 6th, they will play each other in the first week of the finals.

If the Reds can win the rest of their games (and don't catch the Brumbies) they'd need to finish above 3 of the top 9 sides.

Provided they can win the rest of their games, they'd need:-
- Hurricanes to lose at least 1 game - almost a certainty
- Highlanders to lose at least 1 game (maybe two) - given that they will be playing them at suncorp this is not a major problem.
- Sharks to lose two game - mm not sure that will happen. We really need to Stormers to beat them in Durban this weekend. They have a 5 pointer against the Lions before the break. They also play the Bulls and the Cheetahs, both at home. IF the lose to the stormers this week, they might trip up against the Bulls in week 20. But they're in good form atm.
- Bulls to lose three games - not out of the question. They play chiefs this weekend . If they lose that we'd need two more. They play the stormers at home next week and then the Sharks (away) in week 20. They are the only games I could see them losing.
- Saders to lose two games - cant see it happening but not impossible. They have the Chiefs away (which will be close) otherwise they play the Canes and Highlanders at home and the force
- Chiefs or Stormers to lose 4 of the last 5 games - no chance.

What does this all mean? the Reds desperately need the Sharks and Bulls to lose this weekend, to give them a realistic chance.

 

[mudskipper]

Brumbies can do this at home with or without Hoops... nothing in his tackle bar a penalty at worst… Vitos foot left the ground at the last minute no lifting the lock just fell over a smaller man…

 

[emuarse]

I thought I'd look at the possible make-up of both teams for this game.
I'm assuming that Hooper is not suspended, and also that Lucas recovers from his injury (to balance the books, so to speak). I'm putting Lucas on the bench as I suspect that is what MacKenzie would do as he went off injured the previous week, and have him as a replacement to either Cooper or Morahan.
Also for the Reds, I have a sneaking suspicion that Links put on his team 'b' last weekend, and will have Daley (better all rounder than Holmes & Palmer), and Robinson starting. So along with Fainga'a you have a very mobile pack.
It is interesting that MacKenzie emphasised that against the Brumbies there will be no slacking off in the last 20 minutes and that it will be a 100% performance.
For the above reasons, combined with what I believe is the Reds having the majority of better players on their given day (better player highlighted in green), the Reds are more likely to win. Particular when the bench replacements come on for each side in the last quarter of the game.
Also I suspect the Brumbies will tire earlier than the Reds after their fairly intense game against the Hurricanes, whereas the Reds only just did enough to minimize fatigue in their game against the Lions.
But the team with the best attitude could be the winner - although in this game there will be little difference in this regard.


BRUMBIES ......................................REDS

1 Ben Alexander........................ James Slipper*
2 Stephen Moore ........................Saia Fainga'a
3 Dan Palmer............................. Ben Daley*
4 Scott Fardy.............................. James Horwill*
5 Sam Carter............................. Rob Simmons*
6 Ben Mowen............................. Ben Robinson
7 Michael Hooper........................Liam Gill
8 Fotu Auelua............................ Scott Higginbotham
9 Ian Prior ................................Will Genia
10 Zack Holmes........................ Quade Cooper
11 Joseph Tomane ....................Dom Shipperley*
12 Pat McCabe.......................... Michael Harris
13 Andrew Smith .......................Anthony Fainga'a
14 Henry Speight....................... Digby Ioane*
15 Jesse Mogg ..........................Luke Morahan

16 Anthony Hegarty................... James Hanson
17 Ruaidhri Murphy................... Greg Holmes
18 Peter Kimlin .........................Adam Wallace-Harrison
19 Ita Vaea.............................. Jake Schatz
20 Nic White............................. Nick Frisby
21 Robbie Coleman.................. Chris F'Sautia
22 Tevita Kuridrani ....................Ben Lucas

* Position changed to accomodate one-on one to the opponent player

 

[Slim 293]

I would assume Nic White would be starting, in which case...

White > Genia

And this Chris F'Sautia is already better than Robbie Coleman (or Kuridrani, who would be the better comparison)?

You Queenslanders...

 

[The Red Baron]

I was wondering how long it would take for the Brumbies supporters to come riding in against poor old Emu.......Right on cue there Slim.