Whether we like it or not, top level International Rugby has oriented itself to a 4 year cycle based around the Rugby World Cup.
It is also big business with very significant amounts of money involved. IIRC NZL are not all that keen at hosting the circus again after the licence fees imposed by IRB for the privilege of hosting the event. It was $150m USD up front. Then there is all the costs associated with stadium upgrades, and the loss of revenue due to Olympic Games style central control of sponsor signage and opportunities surrounding the event.
Players and coaches can significantly increase or decrease their net worth based on performances at the RWC. Many players international careers revolve around a retirement after the next RWC. Some strangle the golden goose by trying to go to one too many RWC's.
Match Officials are frequently lambasted for their performances at RWC time. This may or may not be justified, but rational thought is often not foremost in the minds of many in the rugby community, be they supporters, "journalists", media personalities, or the commentariat. Some recover from this and move on to bigger and better things - yes I'm looking at you Wayne Barnes, others go the way of poor old Bryce Lawrence who is unlikely to ever step foot in a certain country.
Who will be the victims of fallout from RWC 2015?
While he has a commercially binding contract with the England Rugby Board until 2020, the pressure to find a scapegoat may see Stuart Lancaster and England Rugby amicably part ways before his contract is completed. He may be the first victim. That would be sad as I think he has potential to make a difference in English Rugby, which by all accounts has more intrigue, Machiavellianism and vested interests swirling around it than we have in the outpost that is NSW Rugby. Sadly underwhelming team performances are always the Coaches fault after all it is far easier and cheaper to sack and replace the one bloke in charge, than doing the same with the about 20 "non-swimmers" from the extended squad.
On the subject of rugby political interference, the Saffers probably make Will Carling's 57 Old Farts look like the amateurs that they are in that particular sphere. After the result against Japan, Heyneke Meyer must be like a dead man walking in the eyes of many "back home", and the knives will be out for many of the old age pensioners in his RWC squad, and that is before you even start to factor in whatever racial quotas the Bokke has to comply with.
Here in Australia, land of everything poisonous, vicious, and many things carnivorous, we eat our young when when World Domination expectations are unmet, particularly when that victim is currently resident across state lines, regardless of their birthright. The Wallabies are winning at the moment so all is calm, but the forces are marshalling in preparation for the inevitable, and it won't be pretty when it happens. Residents of the Tropical Cyclone prone north of Australia would recognise the false sense of security and calmness that coincides with the arrival of the eye of the storm. Unless Bill comes home on Flight QF1 from London and takes up residence in the trophy cabinet in HQ ARU, the eye of the storm will surely move and there will be fallout.
If you think we eat our young here, then go across the Tasman Ditch and see what happens there when the NZL Rugby Team fails in its quadrennial mission as has happened so often. The Minister of Finance and their Treasury Department plan the NZL budget and GDP forecasts around the results of the Dominion's No 1 Brand, especially after repeated failures of their government underwritten Team NZ America's Cup campaigns. You know the sort of thing - Sir Richie GOAT is too old and slow. Dan the Wizard Carter is too injury prone and never makes it to a RWC final. Stephen Duck Donald is off the grid whitebatiing somewhere. The bearings on the wheels of Kevin Old Man River Mealamu's zimmer frame have been rusted out. Julian The Bus Savea is more what the Septics call a "Short Bus", #ScrumStraghtWyatt Crockett and so on.
Warren Gatland has a perfect excuse for underperforming based on the the injury ward at Welsh Team Rehab, which some pundits have referred to as being busier than a casualty clearing station at the Battle of the Somme. It is an excuse that has worked in Queensland for Richard Graham. Will the Boyos accept that or ask some questions and scratch below the surface and ask some hard questions about the conditioning of players for the RWC. Some early shots have already been fired on social media and comparisons have been made to Stephen Dank and the Essenden AFL sports science programme.
Phillipe Saint-Andre and Les Bleus? Well, they are Les Blues and anything can and will happen and they don't really care.
And what about the draw and the so called Pools of Death. The performances of the minnows has shown that even the easier pools can be rather challenging to navigate out of if the eye is not on the prize and the A game left on the shelf. Is the draw made too early? Are there too many or too few teams? Is the distribution of "short turnaround" games fair and equitable?
There is a perception that the Judiciary, and the Match Officials are dealing more harshly with Tier 2 country players than Tier 1 team players. People will interpret what they want to interpret and align those interpretations with their personal prejudices and biases. As long as the injustices are being visited upon players from teams they don't support, it often matters little to them, but look out when an incorrect call is made on one of their own.
TL: DR. Who is for the chop and why, or why not?
It is also big business with very significant amounts of money involved. IIRC NZL are not all that keen at hosting the circus again after the licence fees imposed by IRB for the privilege of hosting the event. It was $150m USD up front. Then there is all the costs associated with stadium upgrades, and the loss of revenue due to Olympic Games style central control of sponsor signage and opportunities surrounding the event.
Players and coaches can significantly increase or decrease their net worth based on performances at the RWC. Many players international careers revolve around a retirement after the next RWC. Some strangle the golden goose by trying to go to one too many RWC's.
Match Officials are frequently lambasted for their performances at RWC time. This may or may not be justified, but rational thought is often not foremost in the minds of many in the rugby community, be they supporters, "journalists", media personalities, or the commentariat. Some recover from this and move on to bigger and better things - yes I'm looking at you Wayne Barnes, others go the way of poor old Bryce Lawrence who is unlikely to ever step foot in a certain country.
Who will be the victims of fallout from RWC 2015?
While he has a commercially binding contract with the England Rugby Board until 2020, the pressure to find a scapegoat may see Stuart Lancaster and England Rugby amicably part ways before his contract is completed. He may be the first victim. That would be sad as I think he has potential to make a difference in English Rugby, which by all accounts has more intrigue, Machiavellianism and vested interests swirling around it than we have in the outpost that is NSW Rugby. Sadly underwhelming team performances are always the Coaches fault after all it is far easier and cheaper to sack and replace the one bloke in charge, than doing the same with the about 20 "non-swimmers" from the extended squad.
On the subject of rugby political interference, the Saffers probably make Will Carling's 57 Old Farts look like the amateurs that they are in that particular sphere. After the result against Japan, Heyneke Meyer must be like a dead man walking in the eyes of many "back home", and the knives will be out for many of the old age pensioners in his RWC squad, and that is before you even start to factor in whatever racial quotas the Bokke has to comply with.
Here in Australia, land of everything poisonous, vicious, and many things carnivorous, we eat our young when when World Domination expectations are unmet, particularly when that victim is currently resident across state lines, regardless of their birthright. The Wallabies are winning at the moment so all is calm, but the forces are marshalling in preparation for the inevitable, and it won't be pretty when it happens. Residents of the Tropical Cyclone prone north of Australia would recognise the false sense of security and calmness that coincides with the arrival of the eye of the storm. Unless Bill comes home on Flight QF1 from London and takes up residence in the trophy cabinet in HQ ARU, the eye of the storm will surely move and there will be fallout.
If you think we eat our young here, then go across the Tasman Ditch and see what happens there when the NZL Rugby Team fails in its quadrennial mission as has happened so often. The Minister of Finance and their Treasury Department plan the NZL budget and GDP forecasts around the results of the Dominion's No 1 Brand, especially after repeated failures of their government underwritten Team NZ America's Cup campaigns. You know the sort of thing - Sir Richie GOAT is too old and slow. Dan the Wizard Carter is too injury prone and never makes it to a RWC final. Stephen Duck Donald is off the grid whitebatiing somewhere. The bearings on the wheels of Kevin Old Man River Mealamu's zimmer frame have been rusted out. Julian The Bus Savea is more what the Septics call a "Short Bus", #ScrumStraghtWyatt Crockett and so on.
Warren Gatland has a perfect excuse for underperforming based on the the injury ward at Welsh Team Rehab, which some pundits have referred to as being busier than a casualty clearing station at the Battle of the Somme. It is an excuse that has worked in Queensland for Richard Graham. Will the Boyos accept that or ask some questions and scratch below the surface and ask some hard questions about the conditioning of players for the RWC. Some early shots have already been fired on social media and comparisons have been made to Stephen Dank and the Essenden AFL sports science programme.
Phillipe Saint-Andre and Les Bleus? Well, they are Les Blues and anything can and will happen and they don't really care.
And what about the draw and the so called Pools of Death. The performances of the minnows has shown that even the easier pools can be rather challenging to navigate out of if the eye is not on the prize and the A game left on the shelf. Is the draw made too early? Are there too many or too few teams? Is the distribution of "short turnaround" games fair and equitable?
There is a perception that the Judiciary, and the Match Officials are dealing more harshly with Tier 2 country players than Tier 1 team players. People will interpret what they want to interpret and align those interpretations with their personal prejudices and biases. As long as the injustices are being visited upon players from teams they don't support, it often matters little to them, but look out when an incorrect call is made on one of their own.
TL: DR. Who is for the chop and why, or why not?
