Inviting the wrath of Pfitzy, the last word in player selections so long as they are all Tahs, but I really do think Cheika has gone backwards with this team selection.
The locks will be a problem. Starting Skelton with a backrow including Hooper and McMahon leaves the Wallabies with two lineout operators only. That will be an issue at some time(s) during the game. Rob Simmons must be filling the England players with extreme fear. If he's true to form, he will give up a penalty or two at the lineout and also probably in general play for his lazy, ineffectual flopping over the ruck and generally getting in the way of the England play. And for those who say he's reformed, remember that he played about 20 minutes only in the first test and gave away one of his typical penalties in a lineout. On top of that, he is a powder puff in defense.
The solution, imo, would have been to bring Horwill in to partner Carter who had a much stronger game in the second test than Simmons has put in for many a year.
The backrow stays the same regardless of how they were beaten in the second test. Sean McMahon doesn't have the presence needed of a test No 8. And if Hooper and Fardy play extensively on the wings as they have in the first two tests, then our ability to win the breakdown or to stop the England forwards in the middle of the field will again be compromised. Either of Palu (for the first half) or Houston should start with the other on the bench.
Now, here's the outrage
. Retaining Foley at 10 means we have to break up the most promising centre pairing we've had for a long time. To drop Kerevi altogether is unfathomable. He was one of the few shining lights in the first two tests and really should be persevered with. And, it also means we have to keep Rob Horne at 11 to defend in the 10 channel. All this compromise just to stick with a player who has amply demonstrated he can't control a game against a rush defense, and actually just doesn't have the arsenal to combat the England game. He may (may) be the best running option at 10, but he will get next to no opportunities to play that game against the England side playing as they did in the first two tests. As much as I'd like to see To'omua start at 10, that would leave us bereft of a goal kicker (although not much worse off than in the earlier tests - Foley's goal kicking was below par, and the Captains both demonstrated a disinclination to take penalty goals in any case), so it would mean that Lealiifano should come in at 10. For all the naysayers, Christian really does have a better passing and kicking game than Foley, and those look to be the crucial elements missing from the Wallabies' game plan atm.
I think, in summary, based on the way both sides played in the first two tests, that our set piece will deteriorate with Skelton in the starting side, our defense in the middle of the park will be deficient with Fardy and Hooper both playing outside the wingers, our breakdown work will be dominated by England, our halves pairing will again be less than club standard and we won't have any real strategy or options to break the England defense. It will need a significant change up in the game plan for the Wallabies to prevail.
