Where to for Super Rugby?

[The torpedo]

This popped up on reddit:

https://www.alloutrugby.com/lets-dump-sanzaar-venter/

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

To me ARU's statement is confirmation that they're banking on SARU being unwilling or unable to cut TWO teams, resulting in (probably) a 3 x 6 S18.

It also occurs to me that at some point they've got to tell Foxtel which team(s) they're thinking of cutting if by some miracle SARU does cut two teams, so that Foxtel can assess the effect on their viewer numbers & advertising revenues i.e. by how much they'll reduce payments to ARU. My guess would be they've been presented with three options & whichever results in the least loss of revenue is the one ARU will run with. But not until after SARU have made their decision.

NZRU in the meantime are IMO just hanging back to see what happens SARU- & ARU-wise and whether it's S18 or S15 will demand a three-Conference setup, and probably get it.

EDIT: if this seems inconsistent with the Super 16 comp I speculated about earlier that's because at that time no-one was suggesting that three teams be axed so I came up with what I believed to be the only workable 16-team structure.

 

[Slim 293]

I didn't say the ARU was involved. But certainly people in the media can and do shape the public perception on issues by what they write. Easy to print a retraction on page 42 once the damage is already done.

Pandaram has obviously received information from a source he believes credible enough to run the story, and publish asap to get the exclusive..............

Whether or not it turns out to be true is another thing..............

The conspiracy talk is quite far fetched.

 

[dru]

To me ARU's statement is confirmation that they're banking on SARU being unwilling or unable to cut TWO teams, resulting in (probably) a 3 x 6 S18.

It also occurs to me that at some point they've got to tell Foxtel which team(s) they're thinking of cutting if by some miracle SARU does cut two teams, so that Foxtel can assess the effect on their viewer numbers & advertising revenues i.e. by how much they'll reduce payments to ARU. My guess would be they've been presented with three options & whichever results in the least loss of revenue is the one ARU will run with. But not until after SARU have made their decision.

NZRU in the meantime are IMO just hanging back to see what happens SARU- & ARU-wise and whether it's S18 or S15 will demand a three-Conference setup, and probably get it.

EDIT: if this seems inconsistent with the Super 16 comp I speculated about earlier that's because at that time no-one was suggesting that three teams be axed so I came up with what I believed to be the only workable 16-team structure.

^^^ This.

Everyone marching to the NZ drummers.

 

[Strewthcobber]

It's interesting that Geoff Stooke can come out and say this

@abcperth: Fmr Rugby WA chairman and current ARU board member Geoff Stooke tells Peter Bell that the @westernforce is NOT set to be axed
#perthnews

And an unsourced article can come out at the same time and everybody seems to be more ready to believe the journo and not the ARU director.

Bit of a credibility issue there.....

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

^^^ This.

Everyone marching to the NZ drummers.

Not really. NZRU were as enthusiastic as anyone about S18 to the point they were willing to accept the ((2 x 5) + (2 x 4)) structure & all that goes with it. All they're doing now IMO is capitalising on the situations SARU & ARU find themselves in. It's obvious NZRU prefer a return to S15 but will live with a 3 x 6 S18 if that's the best outcome they can get. Pragmatic, I think you'd call it.

 

[Quick Hands]

Let's jump to conclusions and say the the ARU head honchos don't like this and are trying to scare people away from investing to make it easier to chop the Force

I think that you are mistaking lethargy for strategy. The only rolled gold guarrantee of the Force surviving would be if it was an ARU strategy to chop them.

 

[Quick Hands]

Down with the 1%. Off with their heads!! I heard something about cake.. is there cake?

“The king must die so that the country can live.”
― Maximilien de Robespierre

 

[Moono75]

Pandaram has obviously received information from a source he believes credible enough to run the story, and publish asap to get the exclusive......

Whether or not it turns out to be true is another thing......

The conspiracy talk is quite far fetched.

Not a conspiracy but certainly a media hatchet job on the Force. As they say 'timing is everything" and this has been delivered with the precision of a Longines watch!

 

[Gnostic]

Give it a rest Moono, I have been posting about incompetence, corruption and nepotism to all and sundry for a decade and got very little support in the main. To think that any Rugby RU in Australia would have the organisational and managerial skill to pull off a conspiracy of the sort you are alleging is just beyond the realms of plausibility. They are just too incompetent to achieve it. Not to mention the fact that they couldn't manage to keep their mouths shut long enough to pull it off.

Some people were amazed that the ARU managed to keep silent about the London meeting, IMHO the ARU are basically paralysed and are waiting for something, anything to make the decision for them. They have nothing to leak, they made no decision, their consultations with stake holders obviously doesn't involve the actual players and clubs. So what are they doing?........ Precisely what I said above........ nothing.

 

[Quick Hands]

Give it a rest Moono, I have been posting about incompetence, corruption and nepotism to all and sundry for a decade and got very little support in the main. To think that any Rugby RU in Australia would have the organisational and managerial skill to pull off a conspiracy of the sort you are alleging is just beyond the realms of plausibility. They are just too incompetent to achieve it. Not to mention the fact that they couldn't manage to keep their mouths shut long enough to pull it off.

Some people were amazed that the ARU managed to keep silent about the London meeting, IMHO the ARU are basically paralysed and are waiting for something, anything to make the decision for them. They have nothing to leak, they made no decision, their consultations with stake holders obviously doesn't involve the actual players and clubs. So what are they doing?.... Precisely what I said above.... nothing.

Indeed Gnostic. Posters like you and I and others such as Reds Happy have been highlighting these corporate characteristics for quite a while on these threads. In the space of a few weeks many, many others have finally realised the breathtaking depth of the incompetence on show. Add to that the complete spinelessness of not vetoing any and every proposal which dropped any of our five teams.

As Reds Happy posted a few pages back, you couldn't make this stuff up.

 

[Blue]

This is pathetic. SANZAR is dysfunctional. For whatever reason, and whose fault it is has now become irrelevant.

When die hard rugby fans like me actually don't really care if I miss the weekend's games then something is up shit creek. Proper dinkum sans paddle with a leaky old canoe.

It is totally broken. It's like a bad relationship. People stay in them because they are too scared to face the alternative or too proud to admit to the world that the thing has broken down.

Pulver and Tew need to make it work. SA will find a way. Might take a year or two to work something out but they will. Don't go tell me that the NH comps don't want them. They need to refresh some of their comps. IT will cause some issues but Supersport and Sky and whoever will hash something out, get the home Unions on board and through some kicking, screaming and teeth gnashing something will get sorted. There is money on the table.

I am so over this. Fark.

 

[mst]

It will cost less to keep the Rebels.$3.4m over the remain 3 years, against $5.1m for the Force.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Can I ask where the $5.1 million figure is from?

Its actually interesting to see the financial reporting about the Rebels. So since 2011 reports have it costing (as in lost) about $15-20mil.

Reports have the deficit as $8mil in the first two years, then the ARU stepped in and it cost them just over $5mil in 2013, then reports of $3.5mil until this latest deal that is worth in excess of $6mil. Annually it appears to be about $2+mil short on revenue.

 

[Gnostic]

So Blu do you think ditch "Super Rugby" altogether?

I certainly do. It no longer holds any appeal to me. We already know who the Champions will be, (or at least which conference), and I think we knew before it even kicked off. I don't think Australian Rugby has ever been so shit, at the "professional" level.

 

[Rebels3]

This is pathetic. SANZAR is dysfunctional. For whatever reason, and whose fault it is has now become irrelevant.

When die hard rugby fans like me actually don't really care if I miss the weekend's games then something is up shit creek. Proper dinkum sans paddle with a leaky old canoe.

It is totally broken. It's like a bad relationship. People stay in them because they are too scared to face the alternative or too proud to admit to the world that the thing has broken down.

Pulver and Tew need to make it work. SA will find a way. Might take a year or two to work something out but they will. Don't go tell me that the NH comps don't want them. They need to refresh some of their comps. IT will cause some issues but Supersport and Sky and whoever will hash something out, get the home Unions on board and through some kicking, screaming and teeth gnashing something will get sorted. There is money on the table.

I am so over this. Fark.

This is brilliant.

 

[Benaud]

So Blu do you think ditch "Super Rugby" altogether?

I certainly do. It no longer holds any appeal to me. We already know who the Champions will be, (or at least which conference), and I think we knew before it even kicked off. I don't think Australian Rugby has ever been so shit, at the "professional" level.

Super Rugby is as good as dead - we're just playing for time now (with one eye on the 2020 broadcast deal). The only way it can survive is with a reduction of at least 6 teams and there is zero chance of the ARU or SARU agreeing to that.

Force fans should be safe. South African politics dictates no team reduction. They'll go down with the same ship as the rest of us.

The main question is not whether it will survive but what will be created from the rubble.

 

[Brumby Runner]

So if this is true, cutting the Force is dependant on SA agreeing to cut two teams. Just how likely are SA to agree to that? And they don't, what then?

My great hope from this massive clusterfuck is SA refuse to cut two teams, AUS and NZ refuse to continue the current shitshow, SA are left to their own devices and a trans-Tasman comp is created.

Unlikely? Probably. 'Yeah what about the SA TV money blah blah blah'. I dunno. That's why I'm not the CEO. All I want is a tight, fun, watchable comp that showcases the game I love.

I think you might be getting close to the ARU (and perhaps NZRU) preferred position. I could easily see the ARU wanting SARU to deny any reduction in their sides, and then the ARU and NZRU taking the big stick out and forcing them to agree on a three conference format with no preferential treatment for conference leading teams automatically making the finals, rather than SA being cut off altogether.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Down with the 1%. Off with their heads!! I heard something about cake.. is there cake?

Is this the French Revolution or the mad hatters tea party?
When Bill P uses a word or words it or or they mean just what he wants it or them to mean. Nothing more and nothing less.

 

[todd4]

with no preferential treatment for conference leading teams automatically making the finals, rather than SA being cut off altogether.

So, how are our Aussie teams going to make the finals then?

 

[That Rugby Guy]

As I see it there are three options:

1) There are 18 teams, easiest way to divide this is by 3. 3 conferences of 6. South Africa, Australia + Sunwolves, New Zealand + Jaguares. Simplest option.

2) Reduction of teams to 16 or 15 (take away 1 or 2 Australian teams and 1 South African team). If its 15 teams then 3 conferences of 5, New Zealand, South Africa and Australia + Sunwolves and Jaguares.

3) Has the current format of Super Rugby served its purpose. Its said that Australia doesn't have the numbers to support 5 Super Rugby Teams but how can players develop if not exposed to the highest level of competition. A big reason that people are so down on Australian rugby is because we aren't competing with the Kiwi teams.

Super Rugby becomes a Champions League/European Rugby Champions Cup type competition with the top four teams from the domestic competitions in Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, the top two from a South American domestic competition, the top team in the Top League in Japan and the top team in a Pacific Islands competition. Teams are placed in different pots:

Pot 1 would be the winner of the National Provincial Premiership ie. Mitre 10 Cup (NPP), the National Rugby Championship (NRC), the Currie Cup (CC) and the South American Rugby Premiership (SARP).

Pot 2 would be the winner of the Top League (TL), the runners up in the NPC, NRC and CC.

Pot 3 would be the winner of the Pacific Islands Rugby Premiership (PIRP), the 3rd placed teams in the NPC, NRC and CC.

Pot 4 would be the runner up of the SARP and the fourth placed teams in the NPC, NRC and CC.

No pool can have 2 teams from the same country. Local derbies occur through the domestic competitions and then teams test themselves against the best of the other domestic competitions. Part of the fun of Super Rugby was seeing Australia teams playing teams from a mix of the other nations, not consistently just Australian and Kiwi teams.

Super Rugby weekends could then be held as independent weekends throughout the domestic season as occurs with the European Rugby Champions Cup. The winner of Super Rugby could then play the winner of the European Rugby Champions Cup to determine the best club team in the world.

The current Super Rugby teams could be merged with the local teams from their city. I.e. the Crusaders and Canterbury Rugby would again become the Canterbury Crusaders, the Lions and the Golden Lions would remain the Golden Lions, and the Reds and Brisbane City would merge to become the Brisbane Reds.

The domestic competitions would be:

South Africa
Currie Cup
Blue Bulls - Pretoria
Boland Cavaliers - Wellington
Border Bulldogs - East London
Eastern Province/Southern Kings - Port Elizabeth
Falcons - Kempton Park
Free State Cheetahs - Bloemfontein
Golden Lions - Johannesburg
Griffons - Welkom
Griquas - Kimberley
Leopards - Potchefstroom
Pumas - Nelspruit
Sharks - Durban
SWD Eagles - George
Western Province Stormers - Cape Town

New Zealand
Mitre 10 Cup/National Provincial Premiership Division
Auckland Blues - Auckland, Auckland
Canterbury Crusaders - Christchurch, Canterbury
Counties Manukau Steelers - Pukekohe, Auckland
North Harbour - Auckland, Auckland
Otago Highlanders - Dunedin, Otago
Taranaki Bulls - New Plymouth, Taranaki
Wellington Hurricanes - Wellington, Wellington
Waikato Chiefs - Hamilton, Waikato

Championship Division
Bay of Plenty Steamers - Mount Maunganui, Bay of Plenty Tauranga
Hawke's Bay Magpies - Napier, Hawke's Bay
Manawatu Turbos - Palmerston North, Manawatu-Whanganui
Northland Taniwha - Whangarei, Northland
Rotorua - Rotorua, Bay of Plenty
Southland Stags - Invercargill, Southland
Tasman Makos - Nelson, Nelson
Wanganui Butchers - Whanganui, Manawatu-Wanganui

Australia
National Rugby Premiership:
Adelaide Falcons
Brisbane Reds/Tornadoes*
Canberra Brumbies
Gold Coast Aces
Melbourne Rebels
Sydney Waratahs/Stars*
Western Force
Western Sydney Rams

*Brisbane and Sydney could also have different nicknames with the Reds and the Waratahs kept as state of origin representative teams playing each year.

Championship:
Central Coast Rays - Gosford
Darwin Mosquitoes - Darwin
Geelong - Geelong
NSW Country Cockatoos - Newcastle
QLD Country Heelers - Townsville
South Sydney - South Sydney
Tassie Jack Jumpers - Hobart/Launceston
West Brisbane - West Brisbane

Japan
Top League
Canon Eagles - Machida, Tokyo, Kantō
Coca-Cola Red Sparks - Fukuoka, Kyushu
Honda Heat - Suzuka, Mie
Kintetsu Liners - Higashiosaka, Osaka, Kansai
Kobe Steel Kobelco Steelers - Kobe, Kansai
Kubota Spears - Abiko, Chiba, Kantō
Munakata Sanix Blues - Munakata, Fukuoka, Kyushu
NEC Green Rockets - Abiko, Chiba, Kantō
NTT Shining Arcs - Chiba, Chiba, Kantō
Panasonic Wild Knights - Ota, Gunma, Kantō
Ricoh Black Rams - Tokyo, Kantō
Suntory Sungoliath - Fuchū, Tokyo, Kantō
Toshiba Brave Lupus - Fuchū, Tokyo, Kantō
Toyota Industries Shuttles - Aichi, Mizuho
Toyota Verblitz - Toyota, Aichi, Tokai
Yamaha Júbilo - Iwata, Shizuoka, Tokai

South America
South American Rugby Premiership
Buenos Aires Jaguares, Argentina
Cordoba, Argentina
Mendoza, Argentina
Montevideo, Uruguay
La Plata, Argentina
Rosario, Argentina
Sante Fe, Argentina
Sau Paulo, Brazil

Pacific Islands
Pacific Islands Rugby Premiership
Nadi
New Caledonia
Papua New Guinea
Samoa
Suva
Tonga

There is also the potential that there could be a secondary competition such as the European Rugby Challenge Cup.