Where to for Super Rugby?

[cyclopath]

average rugby crowds in Australia since 2003:

Year - average crowd

2003 - 34,793
2004 - 29,184
2005 - 28,552
2006 - 22,609
2007 - 14,118
2008 - 26,827
2009 - 21,341
2010 - 22,622
2011 - 20,130
2012 - 22,360
2013 - 22,654
2014 - 12,218
2015 - 16,841
2016 - 18,818
2017 - 13,297

http://www.austadiums.com/sport/sport.php?sid=5

Is that Super Rugby only or does it include Tests?

 

[Quick Hands]

Is that Super Rugby only or does it include Tests?

Both. If you go to the website and click on the highest crowd for each year, it will be a test match.

 

[cyclopath]

Both. If you go to the website and click on the highest crowd for each year, it will be a test match.

Cheers. Wondered why the variances looked so whack! So recent years skewed down, from the first 10 years or so, by NRC with some really low numbers in there, and obviously 2003 skewed up with RWC. Makes it hard to get a feel of the "constants" in that entire time period - Super and Tests. But clearly a worrying trend. Particularly looking at the last few years with NRC, Super and Tests.

 

[Quick Hands]

Cheers. Wondered why the variances looked so whack! So recent years skewed down, from the first 10 years or so, by NRC with some really low numbers in there, and obviously 2003 skewed up with RWC. Makes it hard to get a feel of the "constants" in that entire time period - Super and Tests. But clearly a worrying trend. Particularly looking at the last few years with NRC, Super and Tests.

That's right, outliers in the years, but the trend isn't good.

2014 should have been a good year with Waratahs winning and a full programme of tests, but the numbers are really low.

 

[half]

Cheers. Wondered why the variances looked so whack! So recent years skewed down, from the first 10 years or so, by NRC with some really low numbers in there, and obviously 2003 skewed up with RWC. Makes it hard to get a feel of the "constants" in that entire time period - Super and Tests. But clearly a worrying trend. Particularly looking at the last few years with NRC, Super and Tests.

I am not sure those numbers include NRC matches.

If I look at the last three years and compare to soccer for the low numbers.

2015 2, 500 union 600 soccer
2016 6, 250 union 350 soccer
2017 5, 000 union 500 soccer.

Soccer figures include their low numbers on the FFA Cup, I seriously don't see the above union low numbers as NRC matchs low numbers.

I looked at all sports Basketball has shown remarkable growth coming off a lower base. Soccer has held up even including its FFA Cup matches.

League is down and AFL is slightly down but off a huge number

 

[cyclopath]

I am not sure those numbers include NRC matches.

If I look at the last three years and compare to soccer for the low numbers.

2015 2, 500 union 600 soccer
2016 6, 250 union 350 soccer
2017 5, 000 union 500 soccer.

Soccer figures include their low numbers on the FFA Cup, I seriously don't see the above union low numbers as NRC matchs low numbers.

I looked at all sports Basketball has shown remarkable growth coming off a lower base. Soccer has held up even including its FFA Cup matches.

League is down and AFL is slightly down but off a huge number

They included some crowd numbers for NRC (some are estimates) for 2014 and 2015, but not all games, none for 2016, so including some of these very low numbers will have skewed the results, making them a bit meaningless. So 2014 and 2015 overall were probably not as bad as the numbers posted above suggest, although there does seem to be a trend downwards.
Not really sure, yet again, what soccer has to do with anything here.

 

[RebelYell]

The irony of the following is not lost on me:

I hate Andrew Cox as he is a delusional egomaniac who tried to shut down all links between the Rebels & club rugby in Victoria when he first 'purchased' the club.

However, that same ego was what stopped him selling the club to the ARU to be shut down; Morgan Turinu & Sean McMahon, among others, put enough pressure on him to show his hand privately and guarantee the players he wasn't going to sell the licence to the ARU to be shut down, when he had in fact been negotiating that sale and was simply holding out for more money.

His status as a jersey tugger actually saved the Rebels, in a roundabout way, as by that point although the Force were the team initially targeted by the ARU the national body was certainly willing to spend the money to shut down the Rebels and simply bring the process to an end without a timely legal battle.

 

[half]

They included some crowd numbers for NRC (some are estimates) for 2014 and 2015, but not all games, none for 2016, so including some of these very low numbers will have skewed the results, making them a bit meaningless. So 2014 and 2015 overall were probably not as bad as the numbers posted above suggest, although there does seem to be a trend downwards.
Not really sure, yet again, what soccer has to do with anything here.

In your post above you argued / indicated that the NRC crowds would have had an effect on why the numbers fell. All I did was look at the low crowd figure from 2015, 2016, 2017 and argue they could not be NRC numbers which I have shown below.

You asked why mention soccer==== because they introduced their FFA Cup in 2015 and soccer’s low crowd number do take into account their low FFA Cup matches. Yet soccer has maintained its crowds and ours have dropped.

I also mentioned league and AFL movements.

I have clicked on the low numbers from the site and posted the matches for the low crowd figures.

Union

2015 Super Rugby Trial: Rebels d Highlanders 2, 500

2016 Super Rugby Trial: Rebels d Samoa 6, 205

2017 Super Rugby Trial: Highlanders d Waratahs 5, 000

Soccer

2015 FFA Cup: St Albans Saints d Parramatta FC 600

2016 FFA Cup: Sydney United 58 d South Hobart 350


2017 FFA Cup: Bonnyrigg White Eagles d Manly United 500

 

[kiap]

Is that Super Rugby only or does it include Tests?

Their Super Rugby numbers are here:


Year: | TOT. |AVERAGE| HIGH .| LOW
2003 | 393k | 24,563 | 35,612 | 16,577
2004 | 471k | 24,830 | 42,237 | 11,773
2005 | 440k | 25,909 | 39,363 | 10,482
2006 | 624k | 24,017 | 38,947 | 10,580
2007 | 530k | 21,233 | 31,149 | 12,500
2008 | 474k | 20,621 | 32,371 | 13,784
2009 | 504k | 19,392 | 32,469 | 14,021
2010 | 518k | 19,933 | 40,271 | 14,111
2011 | 867k | 20,666 | 52,113 | 10,122
2012 | 700k | 21,230 | 41,533 | 10,982
2013 | 724k | 17,670 | 38,404 | 10,194
2014 | 745k | 18,191 | 61,823 | 7,129
2015 | 610k | 16,956 | 36,358 | 7,531
2016 | 443k | 14,787 | 25,319 | 8,027
2017 | 205k | 11,434 | 18,781 | 7,008

http://www.austadiums.com/sport/comp.php?sid=5

 

[kiap]

Average in steady decline. Peak of almost 26k in 2005 to under half that now at 11k and change.

Season total has crashed. Peaks of over 700k when boosted by home finals but now at the lowest in at least 15 years on those figures.

Pro rugby will have to be torn up to start again by 2020.

edit: rm season data

 

[Strewthcobber]

There were 39 Super Rugby home games in Australia in 2017. (edit 39 - missed the semi!)
taking these numbers - 205/39 = 5250, which is way too low. Lots of games missing from that total

Total attendance was something like 430k (ish - because 7 games weren't ever reported)

That's not to say there isn't a massive decline.

The Auststadium average numbers are missing so much data that it's not worth referring to, especially when comparing across years when the amount of missing data changes.

 

[kiap]

There were 39 Super Rugby home games in Australia in 2017. (edit 39 - missed the semi!)
taking these numbers - 205/39 = 5250, which is way too low. Lots of games missing from that total

Total attendance was something like 430k (ish - because 7 games weren't ever reported)

That's not to say there isn't a massive decline.

The Auststadium average numbers are missing so much data that it's not worth referring to, especially when comparing across years when the amount of missing data changes.

Good points.

So on your data a season number over 400k - not so bad.

What did you make the average attendance per oz game? 11k too low?

One thing I have noticed is matches that don't get recorded are often dud turnouts.

 

[Strewthcobber]

Good points.

So on your data a season number over 400k - not so bad.

What did you make the average attendance per oz game? 11k too low?

One thing I have noticed is matches that don't get recorded are often dud turnouts.

Yeah i reckon about 11k and it is usually the small ones,

Reds, Tahs and Brumbies announced all of theirs. Most of the force, and around half of the rebels came out

Sent from my D5833 using Tapatalk

 

[cyclopath]

In your post above you argued / indicated that the NRC crowds would have had an effect on why the numbers fell. All I did was look at the low crowd figure from 2015, 2016, 2017 and argue they could not be NRC numbers which I have shown below.

You asked why mention soccer==== because they introduced their FFA Cup in 2015 and soccer’s low crowd number do take into account their low FFA Cup matches. Yet soccer has maintained its crowds and ours have dropped.

I also mentioned league and AFL movements.

I have clicked on the low numbers from the site and posted the matches for the low crowd figures.

Union

2015 Super Rugby Trial: Rebels d Highlanders 2, 500

2016 Super Rugby Trial: Rebels d Samoa 6, 205

2017 Super Rugby Trial: Highlanders d Waratahs 5, 000

Soccer

2015 FFA Cup: St Albans Saints d Parramatta FC 600

2016 FFA Cup: Sydney United 58 d South Hobart 350


2017 FFA Cup: Bonnyrigg White Eagles d Manly United 500

But there were NRC numbers included in some years (2014 and 2015), not in others, and incomplete numbers at that, so those overall figures aren't really that useful.
Kiap has showed the far more relevant sub-section of Super Rugby alone, and even those are a bit wobbly.
Again, not sure what soccer has to do with anything here.

 

[Rugbynutter39]

So with Twiggyball potentially replacing the NRC and focussed on Oz, PI and Asia teams (latter which looking to TF to promote) and Saffa's looking to lead Super Rugby in droves (Sharks latest in push to look to Britain), that just leaves NZ to play amongst themselves!

I like NZ'ers but be good to see Tew eat some humble pie as yeh some of the stuff he has said in public really been rather disappointing!

 

[chibimatty]

Involvement with NZ can have a bit of a detrimental effect on WA rugby, as it divides the home support substantially. I'd like to see Perth in a competition without Kiwi involvement, to see if we can build a united support base in long term.

 

[mst]

So with Twiggyball potentially replacing the NRC and focussed on Oz, PI and Asia teams (latter which looking to TF to promote) and Saffa's looking to lead Super Rugby in droves (Sharks latest in push to look to Britain), that just leaves NZ to play amongst themselves!

I like NZ'ers but be good to see Tew eat some humble pie as yeh some of the stuff he has said in public really been rather disappointing!

My post back in May 2017. My time line may have been too generous.

Tew has got 18 months to play it cool then watch him sweat - and what we and SA do will determine the fate of the Kiwis.

The travelling side show the All Blacks have become, have been used by the Irish in the US as a quick payday for the AB's but a market in the US for the Irish, the French are about to do the same with a game in the UAE late this year. So another sideshow payday for the NZRU.

NZRU have the BIL then the Poms, then the RWC, so they are banking on the coffers being filled pre 2020.

From 2020 their fate rests with us and SA and if we go domestic orientated and with Super Rugby (whats left of it) as a supplementary product, SA do similar but also go play in Europe the AB brand will be confined to a small market.


But they will have the money so they can fund the SANZAAR venture as they will need it more than anyone as being trapped in the Kiwi market would be almost fatal.

 

[Ulrich]

Fans here might not understand that these two teams/unions are probably the biggest in RSA that dont have Franchise status.

Is it a combined team, Ulrich? Or they both get a gig?

BTW, I am reading through this that SARU are definitely looking to expand, but they are not looking to drop Super completely. It also adds interest to the CC where you get to see all franchises ar work in a domestic environment.

dru, Each is to get a gig if it passes. Both are giant killers, the Griquas traditionally and the Pumas more recently. Most of the Griquas games this year have been decided by about 7 points and similarly for the Pumas who have beaten some bigger teams. If each team in this country could hold on to all their players then Boland and the Cheetahs would be the top 2 teams. WP and the Bulls lately raid all Boland's players and everybody raids the Cheetahs' stocks, but the Cheetahs get a number of their players from the Griquas for Super Rugby due to relatively close proximity.

 

[lou75]

The irony of the following is not lost on me:

I hate Andrew Cox as he is a delusional egomaniac who tried to shut down all links between the Rebels & club rugby in Victoria when he first 'purchased' the club.

However, that same ego was what stopped him selling the club to the ARU to be shut down; Morgan Turinu & Sean McMahon, among others, put enough pressure on him to show his hand privately and guarantee the players he wasn't going to sell the licence to the ARU to be shut down, when he had in fact been negotiating that sale and was simply holding out for more money.

His status as a jersey tugger actually saved the Rebels, in a roundabout way, as by that point although the Force were the team initially targeted by the ARU the national body was certainly willing to spend the money to shut down the Rebels and simply bring the process to an end without a timely legal battle.

Good try, but his ego didnt stop him selling the club to the ARU - the ARU didn't have the money so they couldn't buy it. Sure Morgan Turinui put pressure on him, but pressure is nothing to Cox. He unloaded the team because he had ran it into the ground - lost his sponsors, halved his paying memberships, and lost the season and he couldn't afford to pay the out of season off field staff wages until next years membership subscriptions stated to come in.

 

[dru]

dru, Each is to get a gig if it passes. Both are giant killers, the Griquas traditionally and the Pumas more recently. Most of the Griquas games this year have been decided by about 7 points and similarly for the Pumas who have beaten some bigger teams. If each team in this country could hold on to all their players then Boland and the Cheetahs would be the top 2 teams. WP and the Bulls lately raid all Boland's players and everybody raids the Cheetahs' stocks, but the Cheetahs get a number of their players from the Griquas for Super Rugby due to relatively close proximity.

Wasn't Boland the union that went under before WP? Are they fully back?

I'd love to see the Griquas playing as an international franchise.