Sorry about the lack of reply recently, been busy. I have a bit to get through so I'll probably make multiple posts. First, just a disclaimer - as a few of you would know, I'm in this age group (I don't attempt to hide this) and I've debated most of these teams a few times. This is both good and bad. It's good because it means I have a fair bit of experience with these teams, but bad because I might not be completely objective, especially since I only get to see about a quarter of these teams a year.
To start, thought I'd do a bit of analysis pool-by-pool like DRH did up top. While I tend to agree with his findings, I thought I'd add a bit.
Group A
The only thing I'm pretty confident of in this pool is that Grammar will go through undefeated. Joeys like to blow their trumpet a fair bit, which is sort of fair enough, but no one outside of the Joeys community seems to regard them very highly (myself including). They should make the finals. MLC are a real mixbag - they seem to perform much better in Archdale in Senior years than ISDA. They are still one of the strongest schools across the board, and their coaching is second to none, but since their win in Year 7 this age group hasn't been sensational - maybe their year 11s will bolster their quality? I think there's a good chance they'll make the finals though. I am not sure why everyone is dismissing PLC Sydney. In this age group they're quite strong, and have done well in the past, regularly making finals. I think they'll be a good chance to make finals. I have never been too big on Trinity, but my experience with them is limited. It looks as if they'll make the finalists, but it will have to be at the expense of one of the other teams I mentioned - probably Joeys or MLC. Brigidine and Tangara aren't too strong traditionally, and Brigidine can't afford another loss seeing as they're already down 2. Not sure why everyone is so keen on Wenona. They have never been very strong in ISDA, don't think they've ever made the finals, and in SDN - which they compete in in term 3 - they're quite average.
Predictions:
Grammar
Joeys
PLC Sydney
Trinity or MLC
Group B
I am pretty confident that Barker will top this pool. In my experience Barker aren't as good as people seem to be saying, but I think they're the best bet in this case. Pymble aren't bad, but again not sensational. Should make the finals. Kincoppal I am definitely not sure about - I know that they have good coaching and have done decently in some preseason stuff (did they win that USyd Senior School day?) but I am really not sure. I don't really rate Kirribilli at all, they're not a particularly good team, but possibly finals level. I was surprised when they beat Knox, but apparently it was fairly convincing. Though Knox have made two consecutive ISDA grand-finals, in this particular year they don't seem to be particularly strong. Again I am not sure about their finals chances. Stella Maris, Redlands and Queenwood aren't great, but could surprise some people.
Predictions:
Barker
Pymble
Kincoppal or Loreto Kirribilli or Knox
Group C
Not sure why people are saying this pool is weak, in my eyes it's the strongest by far. Roseville won ISDA in year 10, they were undefeated. I think they're more of a threat than people seem to be giving them credit for. Definite finals contenders. Abbotsleigh are also strong, but they're not as good as previous age groups, will make finals, and challenge towards the business end. Aloysius are also strong and justifiably rated as contenders for the title - will make finals. There have been big wraps on Shore, and they've definitely been good over the years, but in my experience they're not superb. Ascham are a bit of a dark horse - they did well in Archdale last year but didn't do amazingly in ISDA. Monte are another strong side people seem to be underrating - they're definitely finals level. Andrews and Kambala seem to be the only weak-ish schools in this pool, and, even then, both are capable of an upset.
Predictions are hard in this pool, but I'm going to go with:
Abbotsleigh
Aloysius
Roseville
Monte or Shore
Group D
It's weird that 3 of the strongest GPS schools are in the same pool. Barring Friday night's robbery (if Pandol's post is to believed) Kings are a strong side. At this point in time they are missing Matt Bojanic, their 2nd speaker who was in the GPS 2nds rep team last year (I think) so they can only get stronger. Scots are also very strong - they won ISDA in year 9 and have done well in GPS over the years. Both Kings and Scots will challenge for the title, and should be definite finals contenders. This year's Riverview team is strong - they have a lot of depth across the age group (I think there's something like 40 kids doing debating in their Opens age group) - and their are a few solid speakers. If they can get their teams right I think they'll be decent contenders. Should make finals. I am not sure who will take the fourth spot - Cranbrook or Ravenswood maybe? Cranbrook made the final in year 9 but didn't seem to go too well against Riverview on Friday, while Ravenswood - who dominated in younger years - have lost most of their good debaters/old team so they're not quite as strong now. Augustine's, Luke's and Catherine's aren't traditionally that strong, but if Cath's performance on Friday night is to be taken seriously then they could be serious challengers.
Predictions:
Kings
Scots
Riverview
Cranbrook or Ravenswood
I guess you can if you want, up to you. It will probably help with analysis/provide evidence for predictions if we know a bit more about the individuals, but, like you said, there's a fine line. Last year there was a bit of discussion around individuals and it seemed to do most analysis justice. There has been a bit of talk around individuals so far, but not a huge amount.