Hosni Mubarak

[lily]

I just saw a poll on MSN that had 45 000 to 20 000 think that the Egypt situation cannot end peacefully. I wonder why people think this. Is it because of the Mullahs and religious fundamentalists who will try to gain control?
Or will it be because the US and others have allowed Mubarak to stay in power to deny these other guys a chance ( See Saudi Arabia) to take over control. I suggest letting people power shift the future as opposed to installing another puppet regime that will traditionally quieten dissent with violence.
Remember that Ayman Al Zawahiri and his cronies at Al Queda have always listed this as a major reason for Jihad and another reason to issue a fatwa on someone.

 

[Scarfman]

Thoughtful topic Lily, although I'm not sure I give a flying fuck what people on MSN think.

My feeling is that every couple of years or so there is a really dramatic event somewhere in the gulf, and people talk about how it's going to change things. And then it never does: the status quo, which suits the US, is maintained.

I reckon the only way things will change in the Middle East is if the US genuinely loses some financial and military control. Which looks less impossible than it did a few years ago. All empires must come to an end, and you get the impression that the American economy could crash any day.

 

[spectator]

Is Iraq a better place since Sadam got booted? The same fate will befall Egypt if Mubarak is forced out.

 

[fatprop]

Is Iraq a better place since Sadam got booted? The same fate will befall Egypt if Mubarak is forced out.

It happens to most countries afters years of oppression.

And so far there has been no real change, the military are still in control, the ceo has changed

 

[Scarfman]

spec and fp - true, but what is interesting is how aligned the new CEO will be with U.S. interests. My feeling is that it's still too hard to move very far away from that fact. If the new CEO is unfriendly (which I doubt), then they won't be there for long.

 

[Ash]

The US has a long history of saying they support democracies, and at the same time being involved (whether openly or secretly) in overthrowing foreign governments which politcally do not align with themselves, and inserting a friendly ruler (who, frequentally, does not politcally align themselves with the US eventually). The ironic part is that the US have overthrown democracies to install dictators (eg Guetamala). A study of US foreign politics makes for some interesting reading, but the obvious part is that the US (like every other world power) are out for themselves.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see if they have managed to freeze Mubarak's apparently stolen funds, and it will be interesting to see if the Egyptian army do actually rewrite the (appalling) Egyptian constitution to allow for a real "democracy", like they are claiming.

speccy - I think your comparison is very unfair. Saddam was ousted by a foreign power that was hated by the Iraqi masses, whereas Mubarak has been ousted by popular support. The latter has more chance than the former, in my book, of moving to a better system of government. The question is how the power vacuum in the latter will be filled - currently the Egyptian army claims it will have an orderly change to a democracy over the next 6 months, but we'll see. If we've learnt anything from history (other than that we don't learn from history), it's that the army often does not give up power willingly.

 

[Jethro Tah]

Thoughtful topic Lily, although I'm not sure I give a flying fuck what people on MSN think.

Similarly, I hope that sensible folk pay little regard for the dribble on Murdoch's SkyNews and FoxNews. Any reporting of a potential Muslim political base is automatically associated with terrorism and jihad. I found Al Jazeera to be the best.

 

[spectator]

Ash - Your point is well taken. I guess my point is that not a lot usually underpins popular revolt, and once the euphoria of the overthrow subsides, the majority are left in a similar or worse position.

Gee it's hard not tbe cynical about the US position on all this.