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NSW AAGPS Rugby 2016

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Crackerjack

Bill Watson (15)
At the 'Turn' - Facts 'n Stats, and other lies of the 1st XV Comp

Am missing my 'fix' this week!

All Teams have now played each other. Conditions have ranged from 'Gold Coast in Springtime', to 'Well, it's pretty balmy for Invercargill!'. But no excuses.

This Season was anticipated to be the "closest in years", and at the Turn, the Facts 'n Stats bear that out.

3 teams share the lead - Iggies, Kings and Scots. There's a clear 'bottom half' on the table, but the tag of them just being mere "potential spoilers" doesn't cut it. There's good evidence that any team on their day, could knock off any other, irrespective how the table looks.

A 'shared' 2016 Premiership, prognosticated by a few, is looking more likely than not. The make up of the finalists, though, should go down to the wire - the final Rnd 10 match, View playing Scots? ;) (Or maybe down to New playing Joeys?! or Kings playing Shore! Just lov'n it!)

So, in Season 2016 so far, with "rounding" privileges taken, here's some other Facts 'n Stats. (Numerics based on the AAGPS Results page. So, any statistical anomalies, lies, and other errors, seriously, please, like Tay-Tay says: "just don't"! ;))

Offense:
95 tries have been scored across all games in 5 'rounds', including penalty tries. A healthy average of 6+ tries and 40+ total points per game. (How good is the Comp?!)

Iggies, with far and away the best for & against @ +71, have scored 21 tries. Kings next on f&a @ +30. But Newington, lying 4th, have scored the most meat pies @ 22! (Then Kings @ 14 tries, Scots 16, Joeys 13, and Shore 9.)

No team has been held scoreless. (Yay!) Nor have any failed to go over the stripe in a match. (More Yay!)

D:
The 3 joint-leaders averaged 19pts scored against them per game, and Joeys, defensively, are comparable at 20pts per game. The bottom 3 teams have averaged 27pts 'let in' per game.

Margins:
In 3 of the 5 Rounds so far, the average winning margin per game has been just one converted try! And across games in all Rounds, the average winning margin has been less than a couple of meat pies and a conversion. (How good is the Comp?!)

In only 2 of 15 matches has the margin gone above 20pts. For this Season, those results pass as the only "blowouts".

Iggies has the best average winning margin @ 13pts/game. (Kings @ 11pts, Scots @ 8pts). Joeys running 5th, has an average loss margin of only 5.5pts; so less than a converted try!

Home ground advantage?
8 of the 15 matches so far have been won by the away team.

There is NO home ground advantage this year. Stats to the contrary. (So, just how good is this Comp?!)

The 'Second Round'
Nearly every match in the 'Second Round' could have a bearing on how the Season's chocolates might finally go. Any win just means Premiership 'survival' through until the following Round; but a loss will effectively count 'double', almost certainly spelling 'curtains' for aspirants of Silverware.

Statistically, Riverview remain "favourites". (Sorry Az. But maybe you prefer it that way?)

To win it, though, Iggies'll be doing it the hard way. To bring home Silverware, in the final two Rounds, Iggies face current joint-leaders Kings, then Scots - compulsory viewing, mmmmmm? They'll first need to get all 'traditional' @ home against the JoeBoys in Rnd6 (including scoring bragging rights for dates to their Y12 School Formals!) and then shape up against their closest recent rivals in offense, Newington! Woof; a tough ask. But only if you ask. ;)!

Newington are 'smokeys' for all their 'Second Round' matches. They'll provide a 3,000m steeplechase hurdle challenge for every opponent.

So, I wonder about a Season's end like has happened before - Say, a 2014 Rnd 9 revisited, leaving one alone on top? Or maybe a 2015 Rnd 10 buzzer-beater heart-stopper?? :)

Can't wait for it all to unfold. Thank you to all the boys so far, and to the Coaches. And to all you parents who let them do it. You keep we oldies "up 'n into 'em!", HoneyBadger-style.

And to all those Props and other Blindside flankers who're turning 18 this weekend, a very special 'Bless'! ;)

CJ
 

HFTH

Chris McKivat (8)
^^^^

Great post. I think the fact that the 3 leaders have all dropped a game away from home is interesting.


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footy4life

Chris McKivat (8)
GPS 2nds prediction

1 Frances Cutler (I)
2 James Lynch (K)
3 Darcy Breen (S)
4 Louis Gray (N)
5 Jaxon Petterson (I)
6 Angus Duvall (N
7 Hugh Green (S)
8 Nathan Lawson) (N)
9 Kyle Brown (K)
10 Tom Lenahem (I)
11 Jake Pirina (I)
12 Matt Orpen (K)
13 Hamish Duvall (N)
14 Ollie Smealie (I)
15 luke osborne (K)
special mention james turner could play any posiion in the backline but not sure where he would be slotted in
 

deezebola

Frank Nicholson (4)
GPS 2nds prediction

1 Frances Cutler (I)
2 James Lynch (K)
3 Darcy Breen (S)
4 Louis Gray (N)
5 Jaxon Petterson (I)
6 Angus Duvall (N
7 Hugh Green (S)
8 Nathan Lawson) (N)
9 Kyle Brown (K)
10 Tom Lenahem (I)
11 Jake Pirina (I)
12 Matt Orpen (K)
13 Hamish Duvall (N)
14 Ollie Smealie (I)
15 luke osborne (K)
special mention james turner could play any posiion in the backline but not sure where he would be slotted in

rather have James Turner at 13 than Duvall as he is a better defender and a lot faster with better hands too
 

HFTH

Chris McKivat (8)
I read this article on rugbyheaven this morning and wondered how it would impact gps schoolboy rugby. It says changes are proposed for junior rugby in 2017. http://m.smh.com.au/rugby-union/uni...e-sport-is-too-dangerous-20160610-gpgoxi.html

I have a 7 yr old boy playing junior rugby and there are already boys a foot or more taller and twice his weight- btw he is top 5-10% in size at his school. I am a big supporter of weight divisions. It needs to happen otherwise rugby will continue to lose boys. When I work out how to post a picture on this forum I will post the weight divisions they apply in NZ.
Weight divisions probably wouldn't impact Firsts and Seconds because there will be an open weight division for each age group but it will impact the outcomes of lower grades in lower age groups.



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HFTH

Chris McKivat (8)
I read this article on rugbyheaven this morning and wondered how it would impact gps schoolboy rugby. It says changes are proposed for junior rugby in 2017. http://m.smh.com.au/rugby-union/uni...e-sport-is-too-dangerous-20160610-gpgoxi.html

I have a 7 yr old boy playing junior rugby and there are already boys a foot or more taller and twice his weight- btw he is top 5-10% in size at his school. I am a big supporter of weight divisions. It needs to happen otherwise rugby will continue to lose boys. When I work out how to post a picture on this forum I will post the weight divisions they apply in NZ.
Weight divisions probably wouldn't impact Firsts and Seconds because there will be an open weight division for each age group but it will impact the outcomes of lower grades in lower age groups.



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Here we go. I will try to find older age groups


cc05db5c49cb391a6c5615823e916f81.jpg



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Azzuri

Trevor Allan (34)
not sure we have the player numbers in schoolboy rugby to make this a viable option in Australia even if on the surface it seems like a good idea. While the grading structure in each age group we currently have isn't perfect it does provide some measure of separating the Davids and Goliaths. Maybe the "playing up an age group" process could also be used a little more proactively to push the big boppers into an age group that are physically more evenly matched.
 

Inside Shoulder

Nathan Sharpe (72)
not sure we have the player numbers in schoolboy rugby to make this a viable option in Australia even if on the surface it seems like a good idea. While the grading structure in each age group we currently have isn't perfect it does provide some measure of separating the Davids and Goliaths. Maybe the "playing up an age group" process could also be used a little more proactively to push the big boppers into an age group that are physically more evenly matched.

It may say much about how rugby has slipped in the schools but when my father was at school (SIC 1940s) they, apparently, played by weight until opens
 

HFTH

Chris McKivat (8)
not sure we have the player numbers in schoolboy rugby to make this a viable option in Australia even if on the surface it seems like a good idea. While the grading structure in each age group we currently have isn't perfect it does provide some measure of separating the Davids and Goliaths. Maybe the "playing up an age group" process could also be used a little more proactively to push the big boppers into an age group that are physically more evenly matched.

The article indicates that it will be introduced next year - we don't believe everything that's in the paper of course.



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Azzuri

Trevor Allan (34)
The article indicates that it will be introduced next year - we don't believe everything that's in the paper of course.



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Looks like the article referred to above was written 3 years ago....
 

HFTH

Chris McKivat (8)
Looks like the article referred to above was written 3 years ago..

No there was article in today's paper. Check the earlier link, "an updated national policy, set to be introduced in 2017".....whatever that means




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Inside Shoulder

Nathan Sharpe (72)
No there was article in today's paper. Check the earlier link, "an updated national policy, set to be introduced in 2017"...whatever that means




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We should probably just rejoice in the ARU having a national policy on anything and intending to introduce it.
 

Lindommer

Steve Williams (59)
Staff member
Interesting this weight issue's reared its ugly head ATM. As a junior village club secretary in Sydney during the late 1990s I raised this at both AGMs of Sydney and NSW JRUs. There was a dispensation in the registration regulations for small players (in my club's case, all boys) to be able to play down an age group if they were below a certain weight on registering. Most did, sensibly, often at the urging of their parents, but some wanted to stick with the group they'd played with previously. I argued if smaller boys were allowed to go down bigger boys should be made to play up, the vast majority of these larger boys weren't being tested against smaller ones in the round comps and at times their weight advantage was dangerous. But, more importantly, I could see the concern parents had watching their sons get smashed by much larger opponents and the long-term damage this could cause to rugby's fabric. I added a codicil to my "playing up" suggestion: those larger boys should be allowed to play in their correct age groups for all rep rugby.

As I understood it then there was some sport of size grading in NZ junior rugby at the time. It's disappointing this issue is only being addressed now.
 

Azzuri

Trevor Allan (34)
......some wanted to stick with the group they'd played with previously.


This is where it gets complicated and difficult to manage. No matter what system you end up applying kids will generally want to play with their mates rather than go down or up an age group.

Even though such rules would be great for governing safety and ensuring an appropriate duty of care is applied there needs to be some discretion in the process based on skill and other player attributes....e.g the good little bloke who can tackle like a wild man and run like the wind.
 
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