rsea
Darby Loudon (17)
I disagree but this isn't the place to discuss it
SupeRugby Final 2011: Queensland Reds V Canterbury Crusaders
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Brumbies Guy
John Solomon (38)
Not just Kiwi bookmakers, they'll be short favourites wherever you look, and rightfully so.
tigerland12
John Thornett (49)
Rightfully so? Queensland has been the best side all year and have home ground advantage.
ACT Crusader
Jim Lenehan (48)
Betting odds aren't just about form, it's also about reputation, how much people have betted on one side, what the objectives of the betting agency were in setting the odds etc etc.
IMO (and I'm not a betting man myself), but odds mean nothing....unless you're a sub-continent or Aussie cricketer
IMO (and I'm not a betting man myself), but odds mean nothing....unless you're a sub-continent or Aussie cricketer
liquor box
Peter Sullivan (51)
If you take out the draw against the canes due to the earthquake the Crusaders are only one game behind. Add to that them playing away from home every week they have been the best team in my opinion. I am a Reds fan but give credit where it is due and think the Crusaders deserve to be favourites and I hate to admit that I will pick them to win. (I hope I am wrong as I want a Reds win)
Brumbies Guy
John Solomon (38)
Yes absolutely. I'll be cheering on the Reds wholehearted, but you cannot argue that the Crusaders don't deserve to be favourites.
tigerland12
John Thornett (49)
I'm not trying to take anything away from the Crusaders, I'm just amazed by how frequently the Reds have been written off.
Groucho
Greg Davis (50)
Betting odds aren't just about form, it's also about reputation, how much people have betted on one side, what the objectives of the betting agency were in setting the odds etc etc.
IMO (and I'm not a betting man myself), but odds mean nothing....unless you're a sub-continent or Aussie cricketer
Hmm. Betting odds in virtually all cases represent the bookmaker's best estimate of the true odds, otherwise they are subject to major coups by punters. Those odds can change as people bet, but that's because betting patterns are one of the proxies bookies use to make their book.
W
What2040
Guest
absolutely right Tiger - at the end of the day the Reds on top - deserve to be favourites but only just - REDS by 1/2 point
Victorian Reds Fan
Bob Loudon (25)
I look forward to SBW failing at the wc.
Groucho
Greg Davis (50)
Half a point! That's close!
ACT Crusader
Jim Lenehan (48)
I remember speaking to Simon Beazley (former VFL/AFL player turned bookie) a few years back and while he was fairly cagey, he talked about all these different factors that he takes into consideration in setting odds. I was quite surprised by it as for horse racing at least it I thought it was just form, track, weight. He talked about the "feel" for setting the right odds when surrounded by other bookies/agencies trying to do the exact same thing, and most of all make a dollar.
It was a poor Stormers effort as I think all Stormers fans will agree; but nevertheless one has to commend the Crusaders for playing well in the adversity of having to cross the Indian Ocean to play the game.
Some of the Reds defence against the Blues was terrific, especially when both lines were well set, but they missed a lot of tackles in fluid situations. I'm sure that others have written that the Saders will punish the Reds more than the Blues did with their poor ball work if such happens again; but what to do about it is another matter.
Still the Saders will be worrying about the Reds attack just as much.
The Reds scrum has been weak against most of the good scrumming sides though they have got away with it most of the time; but the Saders are another matter: their lightish scrum is the best in Super Rugby. Who would have thought a 922kg SAffer scrum would have been mullered last week? The Saders turned their superiority into actual points so the Reds will have to step up. I see more scope for the lineout improving than the scrum though.
But they won last time so it's possible to win a game against a better scrum and as Groucho said: "The Reds ... are more than the sum of their parts - a team. I don't see any reason why they can't win this.
Go the Reds.
RedsHappy
Tony Shaw (54)
tl12, of course, you're so right to add this perspective, and we Reds' fans have lived with and through that all year. At every competitive juncture there has been an impressive counter analysis v Reds listing in detail all the reasons why the Reds likely could not beat XX, as XX possessed better XX forwards, or superior XX factors and XX track records or XX better experience, etc. And we only lost 3 games out of 16 - Tahs (A), Canes (A), Brumbies (H), with only the Tahs consistently in the upper class lounge as competition.
If Link, his coaches and the Reds players had listened to all the rational counters as to why the Reds would not/could not prevail, they'd be blithering wrecks today wondering what might have been. But in the vast majority of times they have proven the worriers wrong, and Found a Way to Win. They could well so do again on Saturday, the Cru do not deliver perfection at every turn, there will be moments when their playing humanity and its frailties are found. Subtle Cru vulnerabilities will surely be identified by Link of a type that we or the media may miss entirely. There may well be a dazzling moment of complete, unforeseen creativity from a pod of Reds that turns the game, despite all the Cru battle power and that leaves that power without a good-enough answer.
So, it might be what we just don't know or can't possibly today foresee that determines these two teams' fates by 9:30pm Saturday night. And, in part, that's what's making the prospect of what may unfold so spine-chillingly good.
MajorlyRagerly
Trevor Allan (34)
If you read a bit more indepth NZ media & NZ fans views, I think you'll find that the view of the Reds & their players has done nothing but go up this year. In front of Cooper you'll generally find words like mercurial, talented, in-form and outstanding. This on the back of the fact that I suspect many of my country folk, like me, can't stand the guy because we can't understand a Tokoroa native can be so proud to be a Wallaby.
You have no idea how much the idea of seeing him hold the RWC aloft in his Greeen & Gold shits me to tears, no idea.
The dislike and wilingness to see this bloke failed has for the most part, spilled over onto alot of people's general perception of the Reds. Wanting to see Cooper fail & thus wanting to see the Reds fail & hence writing about it.
The Reds are good, bloody good. They can win this & undoubtedly have the talent and team too. You know it, I know it & most people who write the Crusaders are going to win know it too. In the end that's all that really matters.
D
daz
Guest
Pretty good summation there MR.
Regardless of what happens on Saturday night, supporters of both the Reds and Crusaders have every right to feel bloody proud of what their team has done this year.
I am Red. That does not have conditions attached.
Game on.
Regardless of what happens on Saturday night, supporters of both the Reds and Crusaders have every right to feel bloody proud of what their team has done this year.
I am Red. That does not have conditions attached.
Game on.
RedsHappy
Tony Shaw (54)
MR, I doubt a read of the following will change your (IMO pretty over-brutal) assessment of QC (Quade Cooper)'s life and loyalties, but at the very least the anecdotes, family difficulties (why his Dad came to Aus looking for work, etc) and chequered path he's been down as a young footballer star, surely shows up his humanity and honesty (despite whatever else might be ascribed to him):
See: http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sp...d-him-to-grow-up/story-e6frey4i-1226086719361
wamberal
Phil Kearns (64)
Go you good Reds things.
The Crusaders defense against the Stormers was incredible - it seemed as though the field was about 10 metres too narrow. I cannot see an weakness there for the Reds to exploit. It will come down to the Reds feeding off Crusaders mistakes.
The Crusaders lineout was a whole heap better than I had expected, but the Reds will be better than last week, and I hope better than the Stormers, Andries Bekker notwithstanding. The scrum, well, that is a real worry.
On the positive side of the equation, I doubt that the Reds will have any stagefright, in fact playing this game during the same week as Origin of Species is a big plus, all the pressure is taken away from them, and they can feed off the result of the loig (if the Toads win, the Reds are going for the doubt, if the Roaches, the Reds are avenging the loss). Either way, they will have huge reservoirs of public goodwill to buoy their spirits, without being a weight to carry. They have already over-achieved for this season.
My heart says Reds, my mind says they might have to wait until next year.
The Crusaders defense against the Stormers was incredible - it seemed as though the field was about 10 metres too narrow. I cannot see an weakness there for the Reds to exploit. It will come down to the Reds feeding off Crusaders mistakes.
The Crusaders lineout was a whole heap better than I had expected, but the Reds will be better than last week, and I hope better than the Stormers, Andries Bekker notwithstanding. The scrum, well, that is a real worry.
On the positive side of the equation, I doubt that the Reds will have any stagefright, in fact playing this game during the same week as Origin of Species is a big plus, all the pressure is taken away from them, and they can feed off the result of the loig (if the Toads win, the Reds are going for the doubt, if the Roaches, the Reds are avenging the loss). Either way, they will have huge reservoirs of public goodwill to buoy their spirits, without being a weight to carry. They have already over-achieved for this season.
My heart says Reds, my mind says they might have to wait until next year.
bloodred
Fred Wood (13)
Me too. The Reds have made me very proud also this year and win, lose or draw on Saturday, they have proven to me that they are the real deal. I have followed them through the lean times and I will party hard if they manage to topple the trend setters of the last decade. Go the REDS!!!!
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