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The Climate Change Thread

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Scotty, Mar 21, 2011.

  1. boyo Mark Ella (57)

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    Facts: not in the Coalition playbook (especially if they are inconvenient)

    Fiction: is in the Coalition playbook

    Bureau warned Greg Hunt about climate change before he cited Wikipedia

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bureau-warned-greg-hunt-about-climate-change-before-he-cited-wikipedia-20141006-10qyg0.html#ixzz3FPymCM49


    From the comments:-

    Welcome to the only backwater on earth where this topic is still a "debate". So much for the clever country. I wonder how much longer our luck will last?
  2. formerflanker Dick Tooth (41)

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    Anyone who uses Wikipedia as an authoritative source is not credible themselves.
    However a reliable source has said "The Earth’s temperature has “plateaued” and there has been no global warming for at least the last 18 years, says Dr. John Christy, professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center (ESSC) at the University of Alabama/Huntsville."
    Most of the Australian Schoolboys have never experienced Global warming.
    http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article...atellite-data-no-global-warming-past-18-years
  3. boyo Mark Ella (57)

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    This emphasises Braveheart81's point:-

    Southern Hemisphere ocean warming 'underestimated'

    http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2014/10/06/4100264.htm
    Highlander35 likes this.
  4. formerflanker Dick Tooth (41)

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    And just to prove how unsettled is the science, your reference goes on to show that NASA have just found that the cold waters of earth's deep ocean have not warmed measurably since 2005. The temperature of the top half of the world’s ocean — above the 1.24-mile mark — is still climbing, but not fast enough to account for the stalled air temperatures.
    Source: NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology.
    http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4321


    A concern I have about the first study mentioned is its strong reliance on climate models - the same ones I assume that were wrong in not predicting the pause in global warming.

    Until the climate scientists get their field of study into a mature state of analysis, we shouldn't be committing trillions of dollars world-wide into schemes which attempt to mitigate theoretical, as opposed to actual, harm.
    Mr Doug likes this.
  5. sarcophilus Charlie Fox (21)

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    and we should not make commercial airlines or Ocean going vessels carry life rafts until we are sure they are going to sink
  6. sarcophilus Charlie Fox (21)

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    How much will it cost to buy our way out of trouble if the plateau is just another similar to those at the beginning of last century

    or if as the missing heat not found where it was expected article pointed out that the sun is heading for a "grand Minimum" that may replicate the "little ice age" of the 18th century

    this too will only buy some time as per previous discussions.

    I still note that the no change scientist still talks about the isolated affect of the SOI as if it is global. He also note he looks out the back window.

    I hope the next Taxi I catch doesn't keep telling me "see we went through another red light and nothing happened, breaking costs time and money and wears out tyres, lets go a little faster"
  7. Runner Nev Cottrell (35)

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    Models are based on assumptions. If you change the assumptions it could be the world is cooling
  8. boyo Mark Ella (57)

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    Didn't the COALition (aka the organisation for mining, the military, and the Murdoch-media) say that Australia is open for business?

    "Australian businesses want the Abbott government to set tougher emissions reduction targets and fear the country's economy will suffer if it does not move away from fossil-fuel intensive industries, a new analysis shows."

    "More than 70 per cent of businesses thought Australia's economy would be disadvantaged if the government did not set targets in line with other countries and did not price carbon in line with major countries.

    "Business is telling us you can't ignore what the rest of the world is doing and think we'll get away with it," Dr Jotzo said."


    Businesses want tougher climate action, low carbon economy: survey

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/businesses-want-tougher-climate-action-low-carbon-economy-survey-20141010-114eq1.html#ixzz3FnP71FCr

  9. Pfitzy Tim Horan (67)

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    Ha! I only just realised this!
  10. Ruggo Mark Ella (57)

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    I couldn't help but fix this for you.
  11. Runner Nev Cottrell (35)

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    Now that could get you in naughty corner
  12. wilful Larry Dwyer (12)

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    This is such a bollocks argument. The reductio ad absurdum of your argument is that you cannot model anything and strict experimental evidence is the only standard for science. Really? Is that what you really believe?

    (Though I have to say, it's a truism that all models are wrong, it's just that some models are less wrong than others)

    In the first place, we do have the temperature records anyway, as well as all the other biological and geological evidence that climate change is occurring. But sticking with the 'flawed' models, what alternative can you offer?

    You can back-cast the models, without having to "fit" them, just using the data and the calculations, and in fact they fit very well with observations. That works even in the 1800s. So obviously something is going right. Risby et al. (2014) checked model accuracy just this year, and found them to have excellent predictive power.

    Keep coming up with zombie ideas, we've heard them all before, they've all been thoroughly investigated and refuted in the scientific literature.
    boyo and Braveheart81 like this.
  13. wilful Larry Dwyer (12)

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    Oh and happy news about 2013 in Australia. A special report of the Bulletin of American Meteorological Society was just published.
    • January 7 was our hottest day on record – 40.3°C.
    • January was the hottest month on record.
    • The 2012-13 summer was the hottest on record.
    • September was the hottest on record, exceeding the previous record by more than a degree; this was the largest temperature anomaly for any month yet recorded.
    • September-November was the hottest on record.
    • The whole year of 2013 was the hottest on record.
    Human fingerprints are all over these records.
    boyo likes this.
  14. formerflanker Dick Tooth (41)

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    FIFY.
  15. Braveheart81 Rocky Elsom (76)

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    Well we just had the hottest September on record globally but keep banging on about problems with climate models and leftist conspiracy theories.
  16. formerflanker Dick Tooth (41)

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    But why did we get those figures? Logical arguments can include:
    • adjustments to raw data by the data suppliers, and as with all adjustments the temperatures rose;
    • a naturally occurring and persistent blocking high caused an unusual warming of the North Pacific
    • the effect of the sun.
    The climate models predicted rising global temperatures and we didn't get them, despite rising CO2 emissions. That's no leftist conspiracy theory. That's a reason to be skeptical.
  17. sarcophilus Charlie Fox (21)

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    "If we are wrong in so speaking, let anyone of our University friends step

    down for a moment from his high pedestal of learning, and let him give us

    one proof in support of the popular view that we are living on a whirling

    globe flying through something called “ space ” at the fearful rate of about

    eleven hundred miles in an hour, or nineteen miles a second 1 Or to simplify

    matters, we will waive the question of the shape of the earth, if any

    of our savants, with all his boasted University education, can give us one

    decent proof that the earth has any motion at all. We only ask for one,

    if it be a good one. Who will give it ? Our “ space ” shall be at his

    disposal; at least a fair share of it. Now, ‘‘ Scientists’’ to the rescue;

    and if you can give us only one proof of the Earth’s supposed motion, we

    will yield your right, and advocate your claim, to the modest sum of

    j^3o,ooo to ;^4o,ooo which you are asking in support of your University

    Extension Scheme. But if you cannot give us the proof asked for in support

    of one of your favourite “ Sciences,” and one, too, which is positively

    asserted to be an “ exact ” Science, then you must excuse us saying that

    we think you are unworthy of the support demanded ; and that, moreover,

    your boasted system of education is unsound, unscientific, and misleading,

    and must sooner or later give way to the true Zetetic mode of teaching

    advocated by us."
    this society still exists waiting for definitive proof they are
  18. Mr Doug Dick Tooth (41)

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    I vowed that I would 'stay away from' this thread, however, I have an emergency at home and need the help of like-minded souls such as Runner, Scotty, etc. Do any of you know of a good electronics tech. on the southern Gold Coast?

    When I tuned in to the SE Queensland weather report on ABC 612 on my bedside radio this morning, "Rick, the BOM guy" said that it was "a chilly morning in SEQ, with light frosts on the Granite Belt, which is unusual at this time of year". My radio is obviously buggered, with such poor reception, and can be binned and replaced, but more concerning is the fact that last night, my Toshiba laptop started showing impossible images on the Sydney (Terry Hills) BOM radar site. It was all different colours, which one could assume may have been heavy rain, but given that Prof. Dim Fluffery has said on numerous occasions, that good rains around Sydney would be 'just a memory', and Warragamba Dam would dry-up, it means my bloody laptop has a "credibility problem" by failing to transmit data from the hard drive to the screen! More bloody expenditure, damn it!

    (The shitty weather is too much for Jarrod Hayne, who's off to the USA to play NFL)!!

    But wait, there's more. This morning our (not very old) wide-screen TV set has packed it in! When watching ABC News 24, the reception was crap. They were showing scenes of the beautiful Blue Mountains, but all I could see was "snow", shit, we only had our aerial and co-axial cables replaced last month for $600-00. Somebody, please, I need help!! I'm worried that my heart pacemaker might fail, which will mean this will be my "last post"!
    formerflanker likes this.
  19. wilful Larry Dwyer (12)

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    I keep coming back to this issue like a dog to his sick.

    We can constantly post new evidence from around the globe, not only temperature records that are being smashed upwards all the time, but all the other things like changes in flowering times, antarctic sea ice, sea level rises, glacier retreat, the list goes on. Countless streams of evidence across a broad range of fields, all pointing in the same direction, all thoroughly scrutinised by experts.

    And against that we get a few mealy complaints about second order issues, never novel, never insightful, always refutable.Never any novel science, never any reasonable counter explanation for what's going on (sunspots? Puhleez).

    I don't think the light will ever shine in, I don't think denialists can ever be honest with themselves, they've painted themselves into a corner so many times that their identity and their ego are too wrapped up in the issue to see the plain unvarnished truth of what they're refusing to see.

    So I've said this heaps of times already, and this time I'll try to make it stick. I won't comment on this climate change thread again, I think I'll stick to the rugby (oh god I don't want to think about the Wallabies)
  20. formerflanker Dick Tooth (41)

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    I'm hoping for the upset of the year on Saturday. It could quite easily happen!

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