Wallabies v All Blacks, Saturday 21st October, Suncorp, Brisbane
- Thread starter KOB1987
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KOB1987
John Eales (66)
So your determination of that was dependant on who got picked in Rodda's place?
Micheal
Nicholas Shehadie (39)
I think we definitely can, and I have said all season (often looking a bit ridiculous) that this ABs team isn't the Invincible ABs of the past.
McKenzie, Naholo, Ioane and Smith drift in and out of games defensively. As a unit, that backline hasn't had much time together and could be found out, especially if Crotty goes down (which he does, regularly).
Barrett and Whitelock are toilers but can lack real impact (the latter less so). I'd take Coleman over both of them. Big, bad Patricia Tuipolotu has that impact but also is prone to 2-3 brainfarts a game. None of these guys are Retallicks / Etzebeths / Itojes / Lawes / Launchburys.
Cane likewise is a hard worker but hasn't had a massive impact this RC (aside from his tackle count, but then again, Hooper's is higher and he's done more work elsewhere as well). Otherwise, Hooper and McMahon are playing the house down, and Dempsey has shown that he's eager to make a statement as well (whether he will or not is yet to be seen).
Hames and Laulala are ripe for the picking if Kepu and Sio, the experienced campaigners, can have a good game.
What I find interesting is that if the All Black 'stars', especially in the forwards, have a solid game it is taken to be a sign of their 'class'. If their Wallaby counterparts have a solid game its considered a subpar performance.
The Wallaby's have started to hum and the All Blacks are looking vulnerable.
Remember: any team beating the All Blacks in the last 8 or so years has been considered extraordinary. Teams have been there-or-thereabouts in the last 18 months only to kook it at the finish line. I think a lot of this is mental: "oh fuck, oh fuck, oh fuck, its close! What do we do?".
The more times you experience "oh fuck, oh fuck, oh fuck, what do we do?" the less "oh fuck, oh fuck, oh fuck" it seems.
I think the Wallabies are in with a good shot to learn from their own mistakes in Bled 2 and I think that at Suncorp, on the up, they are a real shot against a shaky looking ABs without a few of their allstars (Bun Smith, Bogan Barrett and Retallick).
Wallabies to make a statement and win by 11.
The Mayor of Perth
Ted Fahey (11)
If Folau gets injured, who plays fullback? Only Beale can. And then who goes to 12? Hodge can, and Kerevi if necessary but he's not a 12. So much juggling if Folua gets injured. Poor balance on the bench with Kerevi and Speight –far, far better to have Hunt on the bench instead of Kerevi.
Good point, I think the defensive aspect gets overlooked since their offense is so potent. Many games lately there just doesn't seem to be any space and the ABs have been dominating at the point of contact. Not indestructible, but extremely good. After a few phases the Wallabies defensive shape seems to breakdown pretty badly at times. Polatu-Nau looks gassed, 4-6 lag behind, they are tossing Foley and Beale all over the park etc. Kurindrani and the winger are often put in very bad situations as a result. Overall though I don't see why the Wallabies can't compete against this iteration. They aren't drastically worse on paper.
RoffsChoice
Jim Lenehan (48)
Starting lineup is spot on. Shame about Hunt not being available.
Bench is a concern. Real drop in quality in every position except THP. If it comes down to the last 20 minutes, we lose.
Bench is a concern. Real drop in quality in every position except THP. If it comes down to the last 20 minutes, we lose.
I tend to agree re Hunt, but Beale to 15 and either Hodge moves into 12 with Speight coming on or Kerevi to 12 isn't crap
Micheal
Nicholas Shehadie (39)
Also, watching the 1014's analysis recently (which is top notch btw) they talk about the importance of experience, which seems quite intuitive.
The Wallabies are going into this game with an average of 42.82 caps per player. The All Blacks are going in with an average of 30.74.
50+: Wallabies 11, All Blacks 5
30-50: Wallabies 1, All Blacks 4
10-30: Wallabies 7, All Blacks 9
<10: Wallabies 4, All Blacks 5
Going into a meeting now lol so can't expand on it, but the distribution of player caps is interesting. We seem to be more settled whereas they seem to be 'rebuilding'.
The Wallabies are going into this game with an average of 42.82 caps per player. The All Blacks are going in with an average of 30.74.
50+: Wallabies 11, All Blacks 5
30-50: Wallabies 1, All Blacks 4
10-30: Wallabies 7, All Blacks 9
<10: Wallabies 4, All Blacks 5
Going into a meeting now lol so can't expand on it, but the distribution of player caps is interesting. We seem to be more settled whereas they seem to be 'rebuilding'.
Warpath
Billy Sheehan (19)
will Folau get injured anytime soon? even after North carried him like a purse a few years back, Folau came out the better in that match lol. Folau is one of those rare players that don't get injured but then he is also one of those players that barely get involved on attack and mainly defence. if Folau started making the same number of tackles TK makes in a game, he'd be broken in no time.
waiopehu oldboy
Stirling Mortlock (74)
lol, how far North of the Harbour bridge is your house? FYI Cant'y coach says he doesn't know if RM will be released or if so when. I'm guessing he will be but not until after the captain's run on Friday arvo in case Sopoaga or DMac don't come through.
I would guess Kerevi remains on the bench because 13 is the hardest position to cover if Kuridrani has to come off.
Whilst Hodge, Hunt or even Folau could deputise there, none of them would have done much or any training at 13 with the Wallaby squad and it could be disastrous.
zer0
Jim Lenehan (48)
I reside in Dismal's spiritual home of Onehunga. However I consider it my civic, nay, moral, duty to oppose Canterbury rugby at every step. Even if it means supporting the splitters from across the bridge.
Up the Guts
Steve Williams (59)
Agree with Michael best chance in a while for us to knock them off. AB's 10-15 are a little unbalanced (lacks a noted 3rd kicking option outside McKenzie and Sopoaga) and the centre combination doesn't offer as much in attack as usual (SBW has been average this season). Forwards are solid but don't think their front row is as powerful as it was a couple of years ago and Retallick is a big loss (especially without Kaino to fill in the hard man role). With the risk of getting it horribly wrong, Wallabies to establish a narrow lead in the first 70 and then score in the last 10 to put the game beyond NZ's reach.
Up the Guts
Steve Williams (59)
Absolutely agree, Marika is the best man we've got to shut down probably the finest attacking winger in the world right now.
waiopehu oldboy
Stirling Mortlock (74)
You're getting your wish:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby...lity-of-firstfive-richie-mounga-for-semifinal
Short version: Beaugan's coming home & Mo'unga's staying in case Sopoaga or DMac are a late withdrawal.
wamberal
Phil Kearns (64)
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