Wallabies v Barbarians - 1/11/14 (Twickenham)

[Marcelo]

Ulrich, it's time for brave predictions..

i see it going this way - Australia go into their last match unbeaten - after a big scare against the Welsh, and face an england team bashed from pillar-to-post on 3 successive weeks, with only a showing against the samoans to cling-to. then its on - which team will lay down a 'marker' for the pool games next year.

i think Wales will come out of the gates next week like pitbulls.
i do not discount samoa against the poms, either.

Welsh lost their last 9 games against Wallabies. They are always hard but they always lost despite their efforts. Moreover, they have decayed since 2012, their best year. It's a game that boys MUST win.

I'm more worried about the game against Poms. I hope Saffers and Samoans destroy their bodies

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

I think the criticism of speight was more about how he got found out in defence too many times.

Genia was managing behind a badly beaten pack.

Yep, his positional play on D was a little worrying. It'll improve though and he was far from disgraced out there. I think Henry will be a fine player for the Wallabies given sufficient opportunities.

 

[Hell West & Crooked]

Welsh lost their last 9 games against Wallabies. They are always hard but they always lost despite their efforts. Moreover, they have decayed since 2012, their best year. It's a game that boys MUST win.

I'm more worried about the game against Poms. I hope Saffers and Samoans destroy their bodies

I would like to think you are right - i just worry that the Welsh are sure to get one past us sooner or later - I'd rather it was 2014 or 2016...

We will get a crack at some severely bashed Poms, I am not worried about us winning it - I am much more concerned about us making a statement about next year - one they might remember in the final 20 minutes of a critical match... at the moment they are more likely to remember a side that slipped against the Boks, and then slipped again against the Argentinians...

 

[Biffo]

I would like to think you are right - i just worry that the Welsh are sure to get one past us sooner or later - I'd rather it was 2014 or 2016.

We will get a crack at some severely bashed Poms, I am not worried about us winning it - I am much more concerned about us making a statement about next year - one they might remember in the final 20 minutes of a critical match. at the moment they are more likely to remember a side that slipped against the Boks, and then slipped again against the Argentinians.

do you believe that the Wallabies, with a squad of 33 (perhaps already down to 32) won't be bruised and battered by successive games against Wales, France and Ireland?

the poms will be at home, in their season and with vast replacements for any bloke who goes down.

the setting gives the poms a massive advantage.

circumstances just may conspire for the lock on the ARU's Soup-only for Wallabies policy to be opened.
once it is opened for even a week, it will be demolished very quickly.

 

[Hell West & Crooked]

do you believe that the Wallabies, with a squad of 33 (perhaps already down to 32) won't be bruised and battered by successive games against Wales, France and Ireland?

the poms will be at home, in their season and with vast replacements for any bloke who goes down.

the setting gives the poms a massive advantage.

circumstances just may conspire for the lock on the ARU's Soup-only for Wallabies policy to be opened.
once it is opened for even a week, it will be demolished very quickly.

We are VERY Good at getting injured - it is very clear...

But Wales, France & Ireland are not New Zealand, South Africa & Samoa. Not by a long shot.

Of course, I too could go through Life as a bloody pessimist - but I generally choose not to... Following the Wallabies & the Waratahs gives me practice.

 

[Joe Blow]

Having watched the replay I have to say I was a little hard on Hodgo. It was a typical busy display from him although I stand by the fact that his impact at the highest level is not up to what we need.
To'omua was excellent and he should be given the 12 jersey ahead of Lealifano next week. Carter was good and should start alongside Simmons with Horwill on the bench.
The back row is a tough one and will depend on Higgers injury/availability. McMahon was a revelation and I would think if all are fit he will get the back row bench spot with more size need from our starting 6 either way.
Hookers will be Fainga'a and Hanson with it not really mattering too much who starts and who is on the bench. He may well rotate them week to week.
We are a little spoilt for choice on the wings with AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) and Tomane likely to start but we could just as well go with Speight and Horne.
White was lightening compared to Genia who may not make the 23. His trade mark two step sideways and back were still there and if he can eradicate them his game will be much better.
Quade will probably find himself on the bench ahead of Lealifano as he can also cover 15.
Cheika will show us what he feels is his best team currently in a couple of days. Despite the close scoreline there is room for optimism after that performance.

 

[formerflanker]

White was lightening compared to Genia who may not make the 23. His trade mark two step sideways and back were still there and if he can eradicate them his game will be much better.

This leads to an interesting coaching conundrum. The Phipps/White fast pass from the base of the breakdown gives the 1st and 2nd receivers more room because the defensive line moves up a second later than a running pass from Genia allows them to do. The running pass however makes the 1st and 2nd defender hold their channel and not drift in case Genia makes a dart.
Which to employ?

 

[Braveheart81]

It would be about the first time anyone has advocated for a halfback to pick the ball up and run sideways before passing.

My guess is Cheika would prefer the quick pass from the base of the ruck.

 

[Tip]

It would be about the first time anyone has advocated for a halfback to pick the ball up and run sideways before passing.

My guess is Cheika would prefer the quick pass from the base of the ruck.

So there's something wrong with the halfback pinning the defenders next to the ruck so they can't slide and rush the 10 channel?

No, you should not do it every time. But it doesn't mean you don't do it.

And it certainly doesn't mean you want your halfback passing it to the flyhalf straight away every time. Any decent team will just say LOL and send a shooter out in D to disrupt the backline every time.

 

[Braveheart81]

Tip: do you think the instructions to Phipps and White at training this week will be to play more like Genia or do you think it will be the other way around?

I'm guessing that Genia won't be in the matchday 23 this weekend.

I absolutely think Cheika will be advocating that the halfback clears the ball as quickly as possible from the base of the ruck because it means the defence can't push up towards the first receiver because they are offside. Picking the ball up and running sideways allows the defensive line to advance.

I don't think Genia was creating time and space for Cooper outside him by drawing in defenders.

 

[Joe Blow]

This leads to an interesting coaching conundrum. The Phipps/White fast pass from the base of the breakdown gives the 1st and 2nd receivers more room because the defensive line moves up a second later than a running pass from Genia allows them to do. The running pass however makes the 1st and 2nd defender hold their channel and not drift in case Genia makes a dart.
Which to employ?

I thought about the same thing when writing my post. How does the half back put the defense in two minds? They have to take them on occasionally. But he was sideways and even back sometimes with his couple of steps.
I reckon it comes down to deciding what option you are going to take before picking up the pill. Pass off the deck or pick and go.

 

[I like to watch]

If the half back takes 2 or 3 steps all the time,and never goes through the line,he is not adding value.
How many times did Genia go through the line the other night?

 

[ForceFan]

I think the real question is what can Hooper provide that McMahon cannot.

Perhaps more than just 6 tackles in 65 minutes of rugby???

McMahon had a cracking Test debut and in his 65 minutes had the 3rd highest ruck involvement for the Wallabies (36); behind Horwill (50) and Hodgson (39) and just ahead of McCalman (31).

However, his speed of engagement needs to improve as he hasn't the bulk to provide the cleanouts.

Stats for early engagement (1st or 2nd after the tackler) as follows: McCalman - 84%; Hodgson - 82%; McMahon - 75%; Horwill - 68%.

Both of our Hookers get in early: Fianga'a - 28 at 93%; Hanson - 18 at 94%.

 

[ForceFan]

Struggling through the ridiculously poor stats sites rugby has to offer, it looks like McMahon's numbers come to something like this:

11-12 carries for 85-100m, 3 linebreaks, 1-2 offloads, 9 tackle busts, 10 rucks hit, and a lineout win. No tackle stats out that I can find, and obviously the ruck stats are pretty useless. Still, for 60 minutes it's a pretty damn impressive line. You'd want to see what he can do in the lineout, but otherwise it'd be hard to deny him a starting spot against Wales.

ESPN's tackle stats state that he had only 6 tackles in his 65 minutes.
3rd highest Wallaby for ruck engagements (36) behind Horwill (50)< Hodgson (39) and just in front of McCalman (31).

 

[Viking]

Perhaps more than just 6 tackles in 65 minutes of rugby???

McMahon had a cracking Test debut and in his 65 minutes had the 3rd highest ruck involvement for the Wallabies (36); behind Horwill (50) and Hodgson (39) and just ahead of McCalman (31).

However, his speed of engagement needs to improve as he hasn't the bulk to provide the cleanouts.

Stats for early engagement (1st or 2nd after the tackler) as follows: McCalman - 84%; Hodgson - 82%; McMahon - 75%; Horwill - 68%.

Both of our Hookers get in early: Fianga'a - 28 at 93%; Hanson - 18 at 94%.

75% ain't bad for early engagement. My thinking is this:

If you compare our current back-row of 6. Fardy 7. Hooper to a potential backrow of 6. McMahon 7. Pocock.

As pairs, you got 2 very balanced flankers. Both offer mobility, link/support man, work-rates, breakdown presence, a line-out option etc.

However one to me looks more physical and dominate into contact, and that is McMahon and Pocock. I would love to see this back-row in the future. Lots of variables will need to happen (Eg. Pocock needs to return to form, McMahon needs to continue his good form) but one can only hope.

 

[boyo]

I'm more worried about the game against Poms. I hope Saffers and Samoans destroy their bodies

The NZRT play them this weekend.

 

[ForceFan]

Higgers will start at 6(if fit) with McMahon on the bench one would think.
Hodgo was invisible.
Great game to watch.

The ESPN Stats show that in his 18 minutes, Higgers had 2 runs for 16m, 1 Linout, ONE TACKLE. He also made only 5 rucks. I suggest that we need a higher work rate from our Test No 6. His stats have been similar for all Tests this year. Just not enough!

Far from being invisible Hodgson: topped the tackle count for the Wallabies, made 11 runs for 17m gain, earned 2 turnovers, was 2nd in ruck involvement (39) behind Horwill (50). His early engagement at rucks (1st or 2nd behind tackler) was at 82%. Obviously his near try was still too far away to get noticed!!

McMahon had a great debut but needs more than 6 tackles in 65 minutes.
He had the 3rd highest ruck involvement for the Ws with 36 and early engagement at 75%.

 

[cyclopath]

If the half back takes 2 or 3 steps all the time,and never goes through the line,he is not adding value.
How many times did Genia go through the line the other night?

Exactly. Always doing the same thing is obviously predictable.
If you always go sideways a step or two before passing, defences will adapt.
If you always fire the pass straight from the ground, same thing.
BUT - the sidestep allows the defence time to come forward and close options across the backline. The quick pass does not. Now if you can get the quick-passer to snipe intelligently, then it could be a big advantage if the close defence gets a little complacent.
I think the more time and space Cooper (and Foley) have with the ball the better, so I would think the quick pass is the winning option now.
Genia at his best did all things - good pass, sniped well and so on. He is sadly not at his best right now. It didn't help him that Quade was a bit rusty, and their combination seemed less intuitive that in times past.
This is why I reckon Quade is closer than Genia at the moment - if your 9 is stilting the backline, nobody looks good, but Quade might look more comfortable with the ball in his hands fast and early - his long passes will have more value, kicks become viable and the option of him taking it to the line improve. His full repertoire.

 

[Dumbledore]

Taking ESPN's stats as gospel will only ever end in tears. They're useful enough to paint a broad picture, but like most similar sites they tend not to be especially accurate. And even when they are they still don't tell you as much as you need to know to make a really accurate judgement.

They don't tell you the impact someone had on a ruck, whether they made a dominant tackle or just grabbed an ankle at the end, whether the run was in tight or loose, how many metres they gained after the tackle, what their actual role in the team was.

I agree 6 tackles looks low for McMahon, but is that the result of having two grafters in McCalman and Hodgson alongside him, or is it a matter of defensive patterns and where he ended up on the park compared to where the BaaBaas decided to attack, or is it something else entirely? Might have to watch a replay tonight and see if I can work out what they had him trying to do.

 

[Tip]

Solution is simple.

Watch game. Make informed analysis by self.

The fact that Horwill hit 50 rucks proves that many people of this thread have already pigeonholed him as past it. He played a physical, industrious game that seemed to be lost on the entire G&GR community (look at the rankings on the front page).

Hodgeson was invisible though. I could never see him on the field due to
a) shitty stream
b) he was always trapped at the bottom of the ruck in defence after making tackles
c) He always had his head stuck in the ruck when we were on attack.