Hometown Refs

[Up the Guts]

Just to add to that, I wonder how much the bookies already take the home team ref into account when they set the lines?

You’d imagine their algos would have some component that includes historical performance under a certain ref (for instance, Wallabies vs ABs under Peyper would contribute negatively to Wallaby odds). So if historically SA teams have performed better under SA refs then that would be accounted for but I can’t imagine the weighting would be too high.

 

[Strewthcobber]

You’d imagine their algos would have some component that includes historical performance under a certain ref (for instance, Wallabies vs ABs under Peyper would contribute negatively to Wallaby odds). So if historically SA teams have performed better under SA refs then that would be accounted for but I can’t imagine the weighting would be too high.

That means the numbers above are an underestimate of how much of an advantage is given.

Or an opportunity if it isn't taken into account yet

 

[RugbyBookie]

Just to add to that, I wonder how much the bookies already take the home team ref into account when they set the lines?

Very little at all, if any.....Might have to change now!

 

[RugbyBookie]

You’d imagine their algos would have some component that includes historical performance under a certain ref (for instance, Wallabies vs ABs under Peyper would contribute negatively to Wallaby odds). So if historically SA teams have performed better under SA refs then that would be accounted for but I can’t imagine the weighting would be too high.

I can assure you, this does not happen

 

[Braveheart81]

"People are always producing statistics, but we will at the right time communicate our view on where we are from a competition perspective and the performances of our referees. I just don't understand where, all of sudden, after 10 years of meritocracy, suddenly now neutrality becomes an issue because a team, or teams, are suddenly are now feeling aggrieved by processes.

Possibly worth mentioning that under this meritocracy, the two biggest outliers in terms of South African referees (Egon Seconds and Jaco van Heerden) with the greatest differential in penalties against the non South African team are both no longer Super Rugby referees.

Rasta Rasivhenge and Marius van der Westhuizen up next hopefully!

 

[Up the Guts]

I can assure you, this does not happen

Surely they have some sort of weighting function based on historical performance under certain referees.

 

[Strewthcobber]

Surely they have some sort of weighting function based on historical performance under certain referees.

The sample size would be way too small to make this worthwhile at the level of betting which occurs on Super Rugby games I'd imagine.

 

[Up the Guts]

The sample size would be way too small to make this worthwhile at the level of betting which occurs on Super Rugby games I'd imagine.

Yes, you’re probably right but even at international level you’re going to have problems with small sample bias. Just in my experience people are willing to fit models for anything these days and don’t care as much about the checks and balances you’d normally see in academic stat papers.

 

[Dctarget]

So, load up on the jags when Anselmi is reffing?

 

[Strewthcobber]

Yes, you’re probably right but even at international level you’re going to have problems with small sample bias. Just in my experience people are willing to fit models for anything these days and don’t care as much about the checks and balances you’d normally see in academic stat papers.

No home refs at international level!

What top Top 14/Champions Cup do? Much less of a travel problem for them of course

 

[Show-n-go]

https://bit.ly/37YZ469

 

[Up the Guts]

No home refs at international level!

What top Top 14/Champions Cup do? Much less of a travel problem for them of course

Owens is a home ref for the ABs.

I meant for internationals you’d have some adjustment made on the basis of the historical performance under a certain ref (not dependent on home/away). Anyway, kind of getting off the beaten track here but I’d be interested to know if the bookies do adjust based on referee because that would be suggestive.

 

[RugbyBookie]

Surely they have some sort of weighting function based on historical performance under certain referees.

Smart punters may do this, bookies not so much....this will probably change now!

 

[RugbyBookie]

The sample size would be way too small to make this worthwhile at the level of betting which occurs on Super Rugby games I'd imagine.

Yeah you are on the right track. I high turnover sports like AFL and NRL then ref stats may get looked into. But its a waste of time for the bookies as they turn over next to nothing on Rugby.

 

[RugbyBookie]

Owens is a home ref for the ABs.

I meant for internationals you’d have some adjustment made on the basis of the historical performance under a certain ref (not dependent on home/away). Anyway, kind of getting off the beaten track here but I’d be interested to know if the bookies do adjust based on referee because that would be suggestive.

We dont...if there is a big edge (which it looks like) then market forces will bring it into line.

 

[Zero_Cool]

I'd tend to agree that anything less than a full season is probably not enough data to really draw conclusions from. My own personal research has suggested the bias is still there in 2019. My data gives a 5.5 penalty advantage to SA teams under SA refs, while Australians get a 2.5 penalty advantage, and the Kiwis get a 0.5 penalty advantage. So whatever is going on to fix this isn't really making it better if we use the 150 total from 2017 through 2019, my data shows 68 penalty advantage in 2019, so that's at worst more than a third.

 

[Blue]

You’d imagine their algos would have some component that includes historical performance under a certain ref (for instance, Wallabies vs ABs under Peyper would contribute negatively to Wallaby odds). So if historically SA teams have performed better under SA refs then that would be accounted for but I can’t imagine the weighting would be too high.

They would without a doubt have been the first to spot a trend and would have already started factoring this into pricing. The more advanced ones anyway.

 

[Blue]

Possibly worth mentioning that under this meritocracy, the two biggest outliers in terms of South African referees (Egon Seconds and Jaco van Heerden) with the greatest differential in penalties against the non South African team are both no longer Super Rugby referees.



Rasta Rasivhenge and Marius van der Westhuizen up next hopefully!

Seconds should not be reffing at this level. He is absolutely woeful.

 

[RugbyBookie]

They would without a doubt have been the first to spot a trend and would have already started factoring this into pricing. The more advanced ones anyway.

Everyone giving bookies waaaaay to much credit here haha! I would be SHOCKED if any bookies that chuck up Super Rugby chuck any sort of Ref input into their prices (Yes, they should) and this probably happened 10+ years ago..but I highly doubt it now...

 

[qwerty51]

They don't even factor team lists into their prices.