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RWC QF 4 AUS v SCO (Twickenham) 19th Oct 0200 AEDT

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John S

John S

Chilla Wilson (44)
TahDan said:
Personally I'm hoping for Aus/Ire/Wa/France, purely because I like how the Irish and Welsh play and don't want NZ anywhere near the final
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Yeah, that's not a bad list, and I don't really want to face off to NZ in the final (cracking game, but can we beat them twice in one year?),but I'm being realistic (well possibly realistic) and tipping Aus, SA, Ire and NZ to get through to the Semis

(Changed bet to beat)
 
Groucho

Groucho

Greg Davis (50)
KOB1987 said:
If you are supremely confident and you have a Betfair account a better strategy would be to take other people's bets on Scotland. That's what I'm doing ;)
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A very good point, KOB.

It's interesting, those odds. Would Scotland win 1/7 of these? I don't think so. Although the game may be closer than some expect, I think these Wallabies (in form), vs. those Scots (hit by suspensions) should win every time. The ebb and flow of variables is too strongly in the Wallabies favour today.

That's no disrespect to the Scots, who win when that same ebb and flow of variables swings their way.

Of course, egg meet face if I'm wrong and we're ambushed by a rush defence, choke tackles, Scottish grits, and one of the Wobs' periodic brain farts.
 
terry j

terry j

Ron Walden (29)
KOB1987 said:
If you are supremely confident and you have a Betfair account a better strategy would be to take other people's bets on Scotland. That's what I'm doing ;)
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well, not having a betfair account so completely ignorant, just out of curiosity can you explain how this works and why it is a better strategy?

man, the things we resort to to waste the waiting time!
 
KOB1987

KOB1987

Rod McCall (65)
Betfair is an exchange (as opposed to a corporate bookie) and parties bet with each other. So essentially you can act as bookie. The reason it is a better strategy (if you are right!) is that you don't have to part with any money, you just take it off others. That said you need the capital to cover your arse in the event you are wrong! However they offer markets on all sorts of outcomes so you can hedge your bets by betting on various outcomes against Australia. If you are good at maths you can find some arbitrage opportunities.

Because it is people betting with each other, there is no margin so it is a true reflection of the market.
 
Highlander35

Highlander35

Andrew Slack (58)
Stylistically, we were the worst I've seen us play under Cotter against Samoa. With the outs we have, and the overall performance, we can't afford to do the same against you guys, and I don't think Cotter will.

Based on who's available, and the team selected, we'll be looking to disrupt as much ball as possible, then either score quickly, either penalties or broken play tries or send you guys back into your own half.

The pipe dream is any sort of win. The optimistic view is for it to be within a score. The balance of heart and head is competitive through, but ultimately down by 2 tries. The head says between 20-25 points is a good result. Pessimistic view? I really really hope we don't get a half century put on us, but can't help but feel if things go wrong, they'll go very very wrong.
 
oztimmay

oztimmay

Geoff Shaw (53)
Staff member
I've got a twp pint with a Scot that it will be more than 15 points. I like my chances of earning those pints. The changes are what I would expect; both bid dog and KB (Kurtley Beale) can step up to the mark and play their respective roles effectively. Cheika has trained without Poey and Izzy all week, so it's not a huge disruption to the team.

The think that I like at the moment is the Wallabie's head space; they are keeping their shit together remarkably well. Running the game their way, even in the face of adversity (Wales is a good example). Cool heads will win this world cup and I think we're still right in there.

Wallabies by 15+ (so I win my 2 Pints).
 
TahDan

TahDan

Cyril Towers (30)
Highlander35 said:
Stylistically, we were the worst I've seen us play under Cotter against Samoa. With the outs we have, and the overall performance, we can't afford to do the same against you guys, and I don't think Cotter will.

Based on who's available, and the team selected, we'll be looking to disrupt as much ball as possible, then either score quickly, either penalties or broken play tries or send you guys back into your own half.

The pipe dream is any sort of win. The optimistic view is for it to be within a score. The balance of heart and head is competitive through, but ultimately down by 2 tries. The head says between 20-25 points is a good result. Pessimistic view? I really really hope we don't get a half century put on us, but can't help but feel if things go wrong, they'll go very very wrong.
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I have to say I thought the Samoans were really hard done by to lose that game... if not for some overly ambitious play in their own 22, they'd have won it by 4 points as opposed to losing by 3. Your boys looked pretty good against Japan, but then Japan visibly looked like they were stuggling to get back together after their game against the boks only a few days earlier.

I don't mean it as any sort of offence, but to me Scotland are the only side that got to the quarters more on luck than on merit, and personally I don't see them as having made much progress since the 6 Nations.

I'm not sure what the issue is up there, but Rugby just isn't hitting the high notes obviously, as Scotland aren't where they probably should be when you look at how much Ireland have progressed in spite of their pretty complex sporting landscape.
 
barbarian

barbarian

Phil Kearns (64)
Staff member
Jeez come on guys, the Scots are a decent team, and got up over a red hot Samoan side in their last start. And it's a RWC Quarter- so a big margin is very unlikely.

If we stick to our game we win, but the Scots will scrap at the breakdown and rush at us in the backs. This game will still be alive with 20 to go, and if we have our noses in front I expect the bench will be able to get the job done.

Highlander- I'm onto you. You're savvy talking down of Scotland is not fooling me one bit!!

It's going to be tough, but Wallabies by 8.


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mark_s

mark_s

Chilla Wilson (44)
I reckon this is a banana skin for the wobbs. The scots know what to to do to disrupt us, and they'll take the points if Joubert gives them kick able penalties. I'm tipping wobbs by 6 but I reckon this will be close
 
TahDan

TahDan

Cyril Towers (30)
mark_s said:
I reckon this is a banana skin for the wobbs. The scots know what to to do to disrupt us, and they'll take the points if Joubert gives them kick able penalties. I'm tipping wobbs by 6 but I reckon this will be close
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This is my main concern. I don't honestly think they have our attacking weapons, but if they successfully emulate the Welsh approach they could milk a few kickable penalties, and so the Wallabies need to be prepared for all contingencies.

Scotland definitely are a decent side and they'll come out firing for sure, but I still think it's fair to say a lot more luck played into them making the 8 than it has for most other sides.


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waiopehu oldboy

waiopehu oldboy

Stirling Mortlock (74)
"LONDON, 16 Oct – Ross Ford and Jonny Gray (Scotland) have each today lodged an appeal against their respective three-week suspensions for dangerous tackles contrary to Law 10.4(j). The Notice of Appeal was received by Rugby World Cup from the Scottish Rugby Union at 11:55 today.

"The appeal is scheduled for 17 October at 10:00 in London at the offices of the RWC 2015 official law firm Clifford Chance in Canary Wharf. The appeal will be heard by an Appeal Committee chaired by Justice Lex Mpati (South Africa), sitting with Justice Graeme Mew (Canada) and Robbie Deans (New Zealand)."

http://www.rugbyworldcup.com/news/112959

10:00 London time is 20:00 Brisbane time so I guess there's an outside chance one or both could still play? Can't see it myself but one never knows............

And now we have an answer to the question "what's Robbie up to these days?" :)

EDIT: 2/3 of the panel fail the @PlasticPaddy neutrality test, SA & NZ both being potential opponents if Scotland manage to knock the Wobblies over (can't see that either, but one never knows in KO footy :))
 
BDA

BDA

Peter Johnson (47)
I reckon this one will go down to the wire, but im quietly confident we'll win.

IF the wallabies can manage to get a good lead going into the second half, I'd like to see Douglas and Fardy subbed off if possible. Those guys will both be needed for 80 minutes in the next two games, if we get that far.
 
I like to watch

I like to watch

David Codey (61)
barbarian said:
Jeez come on guys, the Scots are a decent team, and got up over a red hot Samoan side in their last start. And it's a RWC Quarter- so a big margin is very unlikely.

If we stick to our game we win, but the Scots will scrap at the breakdown and rush at us in the backs. This game will still be alive with 20 to go, and if we have our noses in front I expect the bench will be able to get the job done.

Highlander- I'm onto you. You're savvy talking down of Scotland is not fooling me one bit!!

It's going to be tough, but Wallabies by 8.


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I just don't see it.
Scotland were winless in 6Nations this year,were easily beaten by South Africa,and struggled against Samoa who are hardly the gold standard.

I think it will be reasonably close,because we will be satisfied with a risk free,no frills victory.
Which is more to do with our attitude,than our opposition.
 
Cardiffblue

Cardiffblue

Jim Lenehan (48)
If we beat SA
Argentina beat Ireland
Scotland beat Australia
and NZ lose by 15 points plus to France.

We would be number 1 ranked team in the world.

All to play for.
image.jpeg
 
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