TSR
Mark Ella (57)
Win to the Maroons by default then?
Round 2: Reds v Canes. Sunday.
- Thread starter TSR
- Start date
Wilson
David Codey (61)
Hopefully we can downgrade them to a tropical low on Sunday
emuarse
Desmond Connor (43)
Or maybe a tempest, just above a full fart
upthereds#!
Ken Catchpole (46)
I will point out that I said 'wallaby talks' - not starters but let's give it a go (note that its off wiki, so potentially not up to date)
This is just the starting 15s fyi
BACKS
Test Players: Hurricanes 3 v Reds 5
Test Caps: Hurricanes 1,2,51 = 54 v Reds 1,4,21,29, 31 = 86
FORWARDS
Test Players: Hurricanes 2 v Reds 7
Test Caps: Hurricanes 6,32 = 38 v Reds 4, 4, 5, 5, 12, 17, 37 =84
Adam84
Nick Farr-Jones (63)
Yeah bit hard to track or quantify ‘all blacks talks’ though if we’re making a comparison between those two?
Are you counting Ravai, Hodgman and Toomaga-Allen in these test figures?
I know I didn’t specify ‘Australia test players’, but I thought the theme of your comments was Wallabies in Reds vs All Blacks in Hurricanes and the gulf between them? in which case, total Wallaby caps in Reds are pretty similar to All Blacks caps in Hurricanes.
upthereds#!
Ken Catchpole (46)
Yeh 100% - forwards get closer when you take out ravai and hodgman (didnt included JTA), but that still reinforces the gulf - bringing in test caps foreigners and still struggling to beat newly promoted NPC players.
The gulf is only partly International Rugby:
Hurricanes have 5 capped players, 4 of which will be in the All black squad, with a TOTAL of maybe 6 players in the 23 even being mentioned in the all black conversation.
Reds have 12 capped players, 7 of which likely in the wallaby squad (+1 for fiji) with a total of maybe 10 in the conversation.
I haven't done this, because when I tried the Wiki data was well behind, but fairly certain the gulf is significantly greater when you look at Super Rugby caps.
Wilson
David Codey (61)
A first pass of experience per player in each of the match day 23's:
All caps taken from https://all.rugby/ I find they're a pretty good source though they lack Japan league one and only go back to about 2013. Super caps I've listed should be one less than what all.rugby shows, that's because they include this weekend's team list. Only exception is Jordie Barret who they have listed at 99 even though this is definitely his 100th. I've included Peni Ravai's top 14 games as Super Rugby caps, no other players had top flight club caps listed in a competition other than super. Other Caps are any nation other than where the team is based (All Blacks for the Canes, Wallabies for the Reds) and Barbarians caps, which there were a handful of. Biggest gap otherwise is probably in the 2nd XV caps - I'm pretty sure there were some Australia A caps missing (those against Japan probably) and there were no Maori All blacks caps which would likely shift the data significantly. Highlighting scale is based on the combined range for each column.
Overall it looks like the Reds have the edge of experience at super and test level, but it's not a huge difference. Ravai's Fiji caps definitely shift the combined total in the Reds favour though, not too surprising given he's the 2nd most capped player across the 23's. I didn't break the super caps up base on the team played for but from a cohesion perspective my feel looking through them was the majority of both teams played their super games for their current team, but with Hodgman and Ravai bringing in around 150 caps from elsewhere the Cane's probably have the edge there.
The clearest difference in experience is those professional games played at NPC level with the Canes blowing the Reds out of the water there. Only 3 players with less than 10 games NPC in the 23 and 2 of those are the most experienced All Blacks in the squad - Lomax and Barrett. I didn't have NRC data, but it wouldn't move the needle very far - Tate has about 20 caps, Wilson and McReight are similar but most of the current Reds will be in the 0-5 range. This isn't new information but seeing that extra 500+ professional games for an otherwise slightly less experienced 23 is stark. We really fucking need that 3rd tier going, otherwise we may as well just say fuck it and start flooding the NRC with our young fringe talent in the off season.
I had planned on doing a more complete version of this for the Australian squads (at least) before the season started but I didn't get the chance.
And the data in a table if anyone wants to play around with it, unfortunately the copy paste doesn't come with my nice formatting:
All caps taken from https://all.rugby/ I find they're a pretty good source though they lack Japan league one and only go back to about 2013. Super caps I've listed should be one less than what all.rugby shows, that's because they include this weekend's team list. Only exception is Jordie Barret who they have listed at 99 even though this is definitely his 100th. I've included Peni Ravai's top 14 games as Super Rugby caps, no other players had top flight club caps listed in a competition other than super. Other Caps are any nation other than where the team is based (All Blacks for the Canes, Wallabies for the Reds) and Barbarians caps, which there were a handful of. Biggest gap otherwise is probably in the 2nd XV caps - I'm pretty sure there were some Australia A caps missing (those against Japan probably) and there were no Maori All blacks caps which would likely shift the data significantly. Highlighting scale is based on the combined range for each column.
Overall it looks like the Reds have the edge of experience at super and test level, but it's not a huge difference. Ravai's Fiji caps definitely shift the combined total in the Reds favour though, not too surprising given he's the 2nd most capped player across the 23's. I didn't break the super caps up base on the team played for but from a cohesion perspective my feel looking through them was the majority of both teams played their super games for their current team, but with Hodgman and Ravai bringing in around 150 caps from elsewhere the Cane's probably have the edge there.
The clearest difference in experience is those professional games played at NPC level with the Canes blowing the Reds out of the water there. Only 3 players with less than 10 games NPC in the 23 and 2 of those are the most experienced All Blacks in the squad - Lomax and Barrett. I didn't have NRC data, but it wouldn't move the needle very far - Tate has about 20 caps, Wilson and McReight are similar but most of the current Reds will be in the 0-5 range. This isn't new information but seeing that extra 500+ professional games for an otherwise slightly less experienced 23 is stark. We really fucking need that 3rd tier going, otherwise we may as well just say fuck it and start flooding the NRC with our young fringe talent in the off season.
I had planned on doing a more complete version of this for the Australian squads (at least) before the season started but I didn't get the chance.
And the data in a table if anyone wants to play around with it, unfortunately the copy paste doesn't come with my nice formatting:
upthereds#!
Ken Catchpole (46)
NPC is the big one! Takes ALOT more to become a NZ Super player - not many teenagers in their squads!
Adam84
Nick Farr-Jones (63)
Ironically the one exception to that in the Hurricanes squad is Tyrell Lomax, and he came through the Australian system
Wilson
David Codey (61)
Oh, as an addendum to the above it's probably also worth noting that the Hurricanes have a huge amount of experience on the sideline:
- Kirifi (66 super 1 ABs XV)
- Flanders (41 Super)
- Shields (74 Super, 81 English Prem, 14 Top 14, 8 English tests)
- Perenara (122 super, 83 All Blacks).
Perenara alone could close the gap in test matches and half the difference in super. Him and Shields would be 1 and 2 for top flight club caps if they were fit and included.
Given the weight of back row talent missing and our strength there we really should be taking the game to them. Early days under a new coach buys a bit of lee way, but I don't know we could've asked for a better opportunity to get over the Cane's.
- Kirifi (66 super 1 ABs XV)
- Flanders (41 Super)
- Shields (74 Super, 81 English Prem, 14 Top 14, 8 English tests)
- Perenara (122 super, 83 All Blacks).
Perenara alone could close the gap in test matches and half the difference in super. Him and Shields would be 1 and 2 for top flight club caps if they were fit and included.
Given the weight of back row talent missing and our strength there we really should be taking the game to them. Early days under a new coach buys a bit of lee way, but I don't know we could've asked for a better opportunity to get over the Cane's.
molman
Peter Johnson (47)
Be pretty easy for them to crunch the historic numbers of average kickable penalties & kick conversion rates vs. conversion of attacking opportunities (5m lineouts etc) against NZ teams to have a fair idea of the risk reward of the various approaches... plus a raft of other insights based on points differentials, time within a match etc..etc.
But more broadly do you feel that Brad didn't have variances to the game plan against different teams over the last couple of years? I can't imagine any of these coaches aren't making necessary tweaks to the game plan depending on who they're coming up against? I feel like there are a number of games where the Reds appeared to adopt different approaches - things like their kicking game. More often it was a question of if they were able to implement the game plans effectively/consistently or not.
I tend to agree with @TSR that at this point I'd like to see them just do everything they were doing, just a bit better. Get the foundations right, breakdown/collision and set piece and they'll be in with a chance to challenge most teams I suspect.
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molman
Peter Johnson (47)
Agree. I think the Reds have every opportunity to get one over the Canes at this oddly neutral location, even if the bookies disagree.
Wilson
David Codey (61)
Bets placed always have an impact on the bookies price and the narrative of Australian vs New Zealand teams recently is likely going to see money laid on the kiwi sides tilting the odds a bit more in favour of the kiwi sides.
That's not to say we should be the favourites necessarily, but it's a golden opportunity to lay a marker for the season ahead and a loss will be a bit disappointing. It is still a new season under a new coach with new systems and there are going to be some pains as we adjust, but we have all the tools we need to win this.
Gillys_ghost
Dave Cowper (27)
Pretty unfortunate scheduling for the reds with the Broncos game in vegas kicking off at the same time
Filipo Daugunu
Peter Burge (5)
Reds>Broncos
Gillys_ghost
Dave Cowper (27)
Maybe not for casual fans of both is my point.
