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2020 crowds and ratings

Joe King

Dave Cowper (27)
Does anybody know when crowd numbers started to decline for Super Rugby games in Australia? Like, were they pretty stable up to the end of Super 12 in 2005?
 

kiap

Steve Williams (59)
<edit> Apparently so; and with good upticks. From the 2005 ARU annual report:

• Average crowds for Super 12 up more than 1,000, to 26,000. This is the sixth successive rise in average crowds. (on page 44)​

This is despite the previous year's report saying the average was 25,981, essentially 26k anyway, and a possible drop for 2003 (?). Might be missing/withheld data. Hmmmm. Still, it's 2.5 times better than now.

96 to 04 cummulative S12 Aus crowds.png

In saying that, I don't believe reverting to the S12 format will reinvent such crowds. Yesterday is another country.

I don't know about the Super 12 years, but haven't looked hard for the data.

From 2006 onward the trend is clearly the other way (even without attempting to compensate for withheld data shenanigans for several years, both recently and even in the middle).

Super Rugby crowds.png
 

Joe King

Dave Cowper (27)
<edit> Apparently so; and with good upticks. From the 2005 ARU annual report:

• Average crowds for Super 12 up more than 1,000, to 26,000. This is the sixth successive rise in average crowds. (on page 44)​

This is despite the previous year's report saying the average was 25,981, essentially 26k anyway, and a possible drop for 2003 (?). Might be missing/withheld data. Hmmmm. Still, it's 2.5 times better than now.


In saying that, I don't believe reverting to the S12 format will reinvent such crowds. Yesterday is another country.

I don't know about the Super 12 years, but haven't looked hard for the data.

From 2006 onward the trend is clearly the other way (even without attempting to compensate for withheld data shenanigans for several years, both recently and even in the middle).

View attachment 11396


Wow! That's super helpful kiap. Thanks so much!
 

Joe King

Dave Cowper (27)
In saying that, I don't believe reverting to the S12 format will reinvent such crowds. Yesterday is another country.

I'm really interested in your reasoning here, kiap.

I don't really know, so I'm just throwing this out there. But if we had of stuck with the Super 12 structure, would we still have good crowds, and a stronger Wallabies?

One of the reasons I was originally so excited to expand the number of Australian Super Rugby teams was because I saw it as a way to grow the game in Australia. I thought we could grow the game through Super Rugby and not just through the Wallabies.

But now in hindsight, I'm just wondering, was the Super 12 structure as good as it could get for rugby in Australia (with maybe the only missing piece being the ARC/NRC)? Maybe the only real chance we had of growing the game was through a strong Wallabies. And maybe having only 3 Super Rugby teams was better for that.

Thoughts?
 

kiap

Steve Williams (59)
Wow! That's super helpful kiap. Thanks so much!
All good, happy to be of service.

My assessment of oz rugby's future direction might not be as popular - but I do think it HAS a future and it could even be a good one. :)

I'll just put another graph in here to refer to in a tick below.

Kodak film sales.png


The Super 12 success wasn't due to its structure of twelve teams, or round-robin, etc. The late 90s and early noughties was a different era - a simpler time where kids had fewer options. Those S12 players are now in their forties/pushing fifty and likewise many of their fans.

Rugby had a bigger window back then. Supe was popular, with the clear cut best players and Australia was #1 or close to it internationally. But Super's inbuilt flaws of colossal distances, timezones and expense were always there. The paper covering the cracks has long since come away. Conferences were merely a by-product of those fissures opening; a brave attempt to stem the rupture. Having being locked away behind a paywall for a quarter of a century, with ever diminishing viewers, it is at a point where nobody gives a fvck anymore.
 

kiap

Steve Williams (59)
OK, the above graph? Might be for Supe Rugby crowds but, no. It's for sales of Kodak film since the late 90s (x 10 million units), with the red dot being when the company declared bankruptcy.

Kodak even manufactured in Australia - what say we re-open those closed-down plants and party like it's 1999!

Yeah, history moves fast in this century. Kodak didn't change so it changed for them.

As a full-season round-the-world comp format, Soup is dead. It's time to restructure and innovate.
 

Mr Wobbly

Alan Cameron (40)
OK, the above graph? Might be for Supe Rugby crowds but, no. It's for sales of Kodak film since the late 90s (x 10 million units), with the red dot being when the company declared bankruptcy.

Kodak even manufactured in Australia - what say we re-open those closed-down plants and party like it's 1999!

Yeah, history moves fast in this century. Kodak didn't change so it changed for them.

As a full-season round-the-world comp format, Soup is dead. It's time to restucture and innovate.

Yeah, but.....

Like vinyl records, since 2016 film sales are on the way back up.

About a billion rolls were sold in 2002, by 2016 that was down to around 20,000,000. No one expects sales to get back to anything like 2002 levels but they have been improving by around 5-10% pa over the last four years. Kodak have even started re-introducing some new versions of old emulsions, as have other manufacturers.

No reason why rugby couldn't make a comeback either, providing the product is engaging and the distribution model works.

Signed

Mr Wobbly
Film photographer and lover of vinyl records
 

kiap

Steve Williams (59)
All power to you, there'll always be this niche

DJ hipster.jpg


It's fun to stretch the metaphor as a diversion through our indoor zeitgeist. :)

Vinyl, vitually non-existent in sales for 20 years, is subsuming the old CD space - but physical formats continue to be swallowed up:

Recorded music format since 1985.png
 

The Honey Badger

Jim Lenehan (48)
Yeah, but...

Like vinyl records, since 2016 film sales are on the way back up.

About a billion rolls were sold in 2002, by 2016 that was down to around 20,000,000. No one expects sales to get back to anything like 2002 levels but they have been improving by around 5-10% pa over the last four years. Kodak have even started re-introducing some new versions of old emulsions, as have other manufacturers.

No reason why rugby couldn't make a comeback either, providing the product is engaging and the distribution model works.

Signed

Mr Wobbly
Film photographer and lover of vinyl records

I agree with what you say. But the Kodak comparison is not a good one. Yes the decline curve is the same, but its a pretty common curve for lots of graphs. AUS coronavirus curve is supposed to be similar as well, at least lets hope.

Kodak did not adapt to digital technology. Clear and simple a new technology turned up and took the whole market away. Same happened to the sulky manufacturers at the turn of the last century. The motor car was way more sexy and took the market.

There is no such new technology or NEW Competitor that stole our market.

We took the product for granted and started delivering a product that the audience no longer wanted. We crapped our own product.

Clear and simple, the products the people want are available to watch live on FTA, are regular fixtures in the same timezone. Do have teams that people relate to in the competition.

Get FTA to get more eyeballs, get rid of SA, they just dont work for us. Build a new time zone friendly comp with or without NZ. Pretty simple.
 

Mr Wobbly

Alan Cameron (40)
I agree with what you say. But the Kodak comparison is not a good one. Yes the decline curve is the same, but its a pretty common curve for lots of graphs. AUS coronavirus curve is supposed to be similar as well, at least lets hope.

Kodak did not adapt to digital technology. Clear and simple a new technology turned up and took the whole market away. Same happened to the sulky manufacturers at the turn of the last century. The motor car was way more sexy and took the market.

There is no such new technology or NEW Competitor that stole our market.

We took the product for granted and started delivering a product that the audience no longer wanted. We crapped our own product.

Clear and simple, the products the people want are available to watch live on FTA, are regular fixtures in the same timezone. Do have teams that people relate to in the competition.

Get FTA to get more eyeballs, get rid of SA, they just dont work for us. Build a new time zone friendly comp with or without NZ. Pretty simple.

Kodak invented digital photography, they produced the first digital camera way back in the mid '70s.

My first digital was a Kodak (mid-late '90s). It was the size of a football and could take 8 x 1.4mp photos with its internal memory. They even produced the first wi-fi capable camera. Kodak were right at the pointy end of the technology.

Their problem was that many in the company wanted to return to their core business as they were failing to compete with all the shiny new things coming out all around them. As a half-arsed compromise they sunk their efforts into printing photos and making digital photo frames. Spectacular failures. Once people could take photos on their phones they were pretty much done..... crapped their own product, to use your words.

I think there are more than a few parallels to Rugby in Australia ;)
 

The Honey Badger

Jim Lenehan (48)
Kodak invented digital photography, they produced the first digital camera way back in the mid '70s.

My first digital was a Kodak (mid-late '90s). It was the size of a football and could take 8 x 1.4mp photos with its internal memory. They even produced the first wi-fi capable camera. Kodak were right at the pointy end of the technology.

Their problem was that many in the company wanted to return to their core business as they were failing to compete with all the shiny new things coming out all around them. As a half-arsed compromise they sunk their efforts into printing photos and making digital photo frames. Spectacular failures. Once people could take photos on their phones they were pretty much done... crapped their own product, to use your words.

I think there are more than a few parallels to Rugby in Australia ;)

I am enlightened now.

Yep they crapped it.
 

Joe King

Dave Cowper (27)
All good, happy to be of service.

My assessment of oz rugby's future direction might not be as popular - but I do think it HAS a future and it could even be a good one. :)



Sounds positive! I'd love to hear more of your thoughts. Are you able to give a bit of a sketch of where you think we should go from here?

Without Super Rugby, what does the year look like? I presume the Tests are still in the same spot, with the June internationals moving to July. But where do all the other levels fit within Australia?
 

Crashy

Nev Cottrell (35)
Highlanders Chiefs - Sat on Fox sports drew 42,000 and ranking was 18th. The top was the NRL Knights vs Storm with 283k.
Blues Canes on Sunday drew 41k and ranking was 12th. The top was the AFL swans vs Essendon with 255k

shows how far we have to go but the Aus games might mean the 2 games each day may generate a bit more exposure for both games.
 

Crashy

Nev Cottrell (35)
Highlanders Chiefs - Sat on Fox sports drew 42,000 and ranking was 18th. The top was the NRL Knights vs Storm with 283k.
Blues Canes on Sunday drew 41k and ranking was 12th. The top was the AFL swans vs Essendon with 255k

shows how far we have to go but the Aus games might mean the 2 games each day may generate a bit more exposure for both games.

crowds also 22 and 41k respectively
 

waiopehu oldboy

Stirling Mortlock (74)
They haven't released any detail as to how each match rated or how many watched it live on pay-tv, streamed it live or delayed, or delayed on FTA but sky claim 750K watched the two SRA matches & the Warriors (who kicked off after 9pm Friday). Given they now have only 585K subscribers they're pretty happy with those numbers.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby...-kiwis-watched-super-rugby-and-warriors-games

Crowd-wise for this week sales for Hamilton on Saturday night are already over 15K (ground holds 25K). Wellington are talking up their potential number but have to contend with a wet & windy forecast for Sunday.
 

Brumby Runner

David Wilson (68)
Highlanders Chiefs - Sat on Fox sports drew 42,000 and ranking was 18th. The top was the NRL Knights vs Storm with 283k.
Blues Canes on Sunday drew 41k and ranking was 12th. The top was the AFL swans vs Essendon with 255k

shows how far we have to go but the Aus games might mean the 2 games each day may generate a bit more exposure for both games.

As I understand the respective competitions, Crashy, the Aus games will be on Friday and Saturday while the NZ games are on Saturday and Sunday. Am I wrong?
 

waiopehu oldboy

Stirling Mortlock (74)
I haven't seen an actual number quoted but multiple outlets are reporting that the crowd for Tribe v Loss Bleus was the biggest for a regular season match at FMG. Sky stadium are claiming 20K+ today, again without stating an exact number.
 
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