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Fantasy Super rugby 2013

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dudebudstud

dudebudstud

Ward Prentice (10)
Here's my team for round 5. I used my wildcard. It may bite me in the ass, but I had to use it because i had 6 players ether not starting or who's teams were in a bye. And if you fall behind one week you are basically out of the comp.

5.JPG
 
suckerforred

suckerforred

Chilla Wilson (44)
The Red Baron said:
Ok, I have just uploaded a spreadsheet of centres for this weekend based on their cumulative scores so far this season. .....
Click to expand...

Looking good Baron. Is there a reason you don't have JOC (James O'Connor) in the data? I know he has been playing fullback but he is listed in fantasy as a centre.
 
The Red Baron

The Red Baron

Chilla Wilson (44)
I'll have him in the mix next week, along with Saili. My sample only included the guys listed as playing this week. :)

I'll try and get the data updated and out earlier next week too. I am currently working on outside backs, and there is no way I will have it done by the deadline today!
 
Braveheart81

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
I ended up taking a punt and picking Robbie Fruen to replace JOC (James O'Connor) this week. This game is a must win for the Crusaders and hopefully he is less crap than he has been recently.
 
chrish

chrish

Frank Row (1)
Had the same idea as The Red Baron and have been working on a prediction system since before the start of the comp. Still a WIP but here are some preliminary figures which may be helpful.

Takes into account 2012 data as well and shows
  • Points (a prediction based on a number of data points such as the players form, home or away, ref, weather and some other minors things not in the document etc)
  • Base Points - a kind of average that gives a higher weight to more recent games and partially removes try points (not all are removed as some players do score more tries on average)
  • Adjustment numbers for various things such weather (by position, the season period (e.g. some players score better at the start of a season), against team (this is also by position), ref (formally the "is Bryce Lawrence the ref" test) These adjusments take into account both the player and overall data.
Ignore players with a position of ? (except Force who havent been named) as they won't be playing.
 

Attachments

  • FR-Round5.xlsx
    59.2 KB · Views: 258
hench

hench

Johnnie Wallace (23)
Went a bit crazy with the Wildcard this week.

Afeaki, Slipper (Nyakane)
Moore (Maku)
Simmons, Whitelock (Luatua)
Gill, Coetzee, Smith (Labuschagne)
Kerr-Barlow (Groom)
Anscombe (Carter)
Tapuai, Fainga'a (Fruean)
Smith, Masaga, Nanai-Williams (Dagg)
 
Bairdy

Bairdy

Peter Fenwicke (45)
Whoever made Poki their captain looks like they have made a grave mistake. Very tight game and he has not been as involved as Smith and Gear thus far!
 
H

HSM

Allen Oxlade (6)
Good lord this is going badly... Was thinking of swapping out Nanai-Williams for Masaga but didn't. Was choosing between Savea and Gear for Dagg - not only chose Savea but made him captain. Benched Cane because he wasn't in the XV but of course he comes on after half an hour and has already scored a try. At least I had Sarel in the team. My commiserations to those of you who are also struggling.
 
Nusadan

Nusadan

Chilla Wilson (44)
Don't feel so bad fellas, I was going to make the transfers 13 hours before the first match, and then wife called me out for an errand, and forgot afterwards...bugger!
 
Hawko

Hawko

Tony Shaw (54)
Ash said:
So who is using their wildcard this week?

I have to admit it is tempting, but there's not a lot of changes I'd actually make due to this week's byes and next week's bye. I'd rather have it in hand for the Lions series, I think.
Click to expand...

Me. I've had at least half a team of passengers and got desperate. Note: One of those passengers was Gear and this week he scored 72!!!
 
Hawko

Hawko

Tony Shaw (54)
The Red Baron said:
I'll have him in the mix next week, along with Saili. My sample only included the guys listed as playing this week. :)

I'll try and get the data updated and out earlier next week too. I am currently working on outside backs, and there is no way I will have it done by the deadline today!
Click to expand...

Love your efforts and no doubt you're having a better year than me but...

I still think my paranoia theory is a better fit with smaller confidence intervals. Look at the evidence:
  1. Picked Ben Alexander from the start based on his performance last year. This year he's 23rd on a points per game basis with 16.7 ppg at a cost of $317K.
  2. TPN is not top ten this year. Dropped him for Moore, now watch Moore go down this week.
  3. Liam Messam is 17th, most years he is top three. Vito, Hooper, Spies all below him and I've had two of those three guys this year.
  4. Dropped McKibben as soon as Barnes was back because surely Barnes would kick. Barnes didn't.
  5. Picked Anscombe for the first time as Chiefs were playing Kings and made him captain. So far he's scored 8, maybe get a couple of tackles to make double figures.
  6. Picked Goosen from the start after last year's stellar performances - so far he's 17th in a 15 team competition. Then picked Sopoaga and he scored -4.
  7. Had Harris for his dead-eye kicking till Link dropped him (deservedly from a fantasy viewpoint).
  8. Had Tom Carter as he averaged 28 ppg over last two years - this year averaging 10 ppg.
  9. Had Gear till round 4, when he scored an 8! Dropped him and he immediately scores a 72. Also had Taylor based on spectacular form last year - currently averaging 5 ppg.
  10. Picked Savea for the first time this week, he scores 4. He was averaging 36.5 ppg till this week.
Paranoia theory? If I pick them they will go sh*t, if I drop 'em they'll be stellar.
 
jay-c

jay-c

Ron Walden (29)
well im gunna plummet down the ladder over the next few weeks cause if im honest its been more good luck than good management>>> but at this moment im number one<> hell thats not even gunna last until the first points from this game come out haha
 
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