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Highlanders V Rebels - Sat 20th @2:35

qwerty51

qwerty51

Stirling Mortlock (74)
You don’t have a strong maul, can someone please teach expected value/points to rugby players. It’s literally grade 3 math.
 
Highlander35

Highlander35

Steve Williams (59)
Dctarget said:
How’d Philip go?

from the snippets I saw Hardwick looked immense.
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Tried hard. Very much a "first game back" style performance, sloppy in handling and discipline despite high involvement. Lineout was all over the place as well, whether that comes down to Mafi's throwing, Phillip consistently calling for the ball to 4-5-6, the Highlanders good defence or a combination thereof you'll have to ask someone whose lineout experience is composed of something other than lifting at 1.
 
Doritos Day

Doritos Day

Johnnie Wallace (23)
qwerty51 said:
You don’t have a strong maul, can someone please teach expected value/points to rugby players. It’s literally grade 3 math.
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There are so many inefficiencies and so much opportunity for game theory etc. in rugby it's insane how bad most teams are at it.

I get there isn't enough money to have the extra staff with phd's like the nfl but decisions to kick into the wind, throwing to back of lineouts in the wet, walking to scrums up a yellow card as well as the lack of understanding in scoring are infuriating.
 
qwerty51

qwerty51

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Doritos Day said:
There are so many inefficiencies and so much opportunity for game theory etc. in rugby it's insane how bad most teams are at it.

I get there isn't enough money to have the extra staff with phd's like the nfl but decisions to kick into the wind, throwing to back of lineouts in the wet, walking to scrums up a yellow card as well as the lack of understanding in scoring are infuriating.
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Don't even need a PHD for this stuff.

It's just 3 x 0.99 against 6 x 0.40

(penalty in front with 99% chance of likelihood v likelihood of scoring a maul try out wide with 50% conversion probability)

2.97 > 2.40 and I think I'm being very generous with the maul %
 
Doritos Day

Doritos Day

Johnnie Wallace (23)
qwerty51 said:
Don't even need a PHD for this stuff.

It's just 3 x 0.99 against 6 x 0.40

(penalty in front with 99% chance of likelihood v likelihood of scoring a maul try out wide with 50% conversion probability)

2.97 > 2.40 and I think I'm being very generous with the maul %
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lol yeah was just referencing the behavioural economists etc. teams like the Ravens think they need

I'm convinced especially Australian teams get into their heads about what other ppl think about them so feel the need to turn down penalties so they don't look weak or something. It's so bad.
 
Rebel man

Rebel man

John Thornett (49)
Wallaby Man said:
Unfortunately this game is another example of one of rugbys big issues. The perceived superior team doesn’t have to work as hard to win as the team perceived to be weaker. It’s definitely not a NZ v Aus thing as we see the same within games against Aus teams. Now obviously the perceived team has earned the right through sustained success over time but you don’t just have to be the equal of your opposition, you have to be so much more because the rub of the green will go to the team the ref isn’t expecting the indiscretions to come from and are allowed to build momentum through looser lenses because the ref isn’t as diligently watching, whereas the lesser team is forensically officiated and has to be considerably more accurate.

Kudos to the Highlanders for the win in an ugly game.
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Same as all sports
 
molman

molman

Jim Lenehan (48)
I don't know if it was William's below average refereeing performance, the quality commentary (talk about phoning it in) or just two teams who didn't seem to be able to string anything together, but I really found that game a hard watch. Players would have some really nice patches of play (and there were some genuinely nice moments) and then they'd do something daft. Sloppy passes, passes to players in a worst position, poor lineouts, cleanouts.. etc all killing any sustained pressure.

I'm also struggling to fathom the kicking game of some teams. If your going to be kicking up and unders, contestable kicks and then have no one genuinely contesting, what is the point. So many times there was barely a chaser and the Highlanders regathered with ease.

Also, why Hodge didn't line things up for a drop goal in that last 2-3mins instead of getting himself caught up in the line I really don't know.
 
SteveWA

SteveWA

Charlie Fox (21)
Both teams had plenty of opportunity to lose that game, the Rebels just took their chances. That being said, I really object to the game being decided in the manner it was.
 
Wallaby Man

Wallaby Man

Nev Cottrell (35)
Rebel man said:
Look yes and no. The ref has a far bigger impact in rugby than say footy. But say pre DRS cricket a cricket umpire would have more influence
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Unless you are out of referrals or don’t refer you will get a result based on technology which is extremely accurate. There is almost no 50/50s in cricket now and klangers are almost eliminated. Referrals have put the power in the players hands and not the umpire.

Umpires interpretation is almost none existent now. Obviously rugby can’t be this, which is why the ref has such a huge influence.
 
KevinO

KevinO

Geoff Shaw (53)
Wallaby Man said:
Unless you are out of referrals or don’t refer you will get a result based on technology which is extremely accurate. There is almost no 50/50s in cricket now and klangers are almost eliminated. Referrals have put the power in the players hands and not the umpire.

Umpires interpretation is almost none existent now. Obviously rugby can’t be this, which is why the ref has such a huge influence.
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I don't know why rugby can't have captains challenge, works in other sports
 
S

Stockade1988

Stan Wickham (3)
Highlander35 said:
Tried hard. Very much a "first game back" style performance, sloppy in handling and discipline despite high involvement. Lineout was all over the place as well, whether that comes down to Mafi's throwing, Phillip consistently calling for the ball to 4-5-6, the Highlanders good defence or a combination thereof you'll have to ask someone whose lineout experience is composed of something other than lifting at 1.
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Just dumb mistakes
 
KevinO

KevinO

Geoff Shaw (53)
International hockey has the perfect challenge system for rugby, at the next stoppage the captain uses the challenge, can go back as far as you want in that passage of play but the TMO is only allowed to look for the challenged decision. Anything else that happened is not considered. So say you challenge for a forward pass and it's knocked on in the scoring motion, the TMO is only looking at the forward pass.
 
Wallaby Man

Wallaby Man

Nev Cottrell (35)
The chance of that happening was butchered with some very unintelligent use during SRAo. NRL has a system that’s fairly settled now
 
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