First of the remaining two big mountain stages tonight, and it looks a cracker. Here's the profile:
Unfortunately the Col d'Aubisque is too close to the start for much too happen, but it will get some climbing into the legs. Here's the profile, but it's a little wasted.
A tough climb that really gets going after the 6km mark.
The first important climb will be the Col du Tourmalet:
Note that even before the above profile there is a nice 14km ride up what looks to be more than a false flat, where the Col du Tourmalet climb actually starts.
Col du Tourmalet is one of those mystical climbs for me, and one of my favourites to watch. I have vivid memories of previous years ascents as they go up, until the hit the small ski centre at the top.
I would love to see someone go on the attack there, but they will be over 70 kms out from the end of stage and it's probably a bit too far. Although the rest of the stage is mostly climbing and descending, the first 8 km of the next climb are not too much more than a false flat.
If Team Sky are still on the front with Cav, Eisel or Knees setting a nice easy pace up the Tourmalet, then I think BMC, Lotto and Leakygas have gone wrong. They need to make Froome and Wiggins feel the pain of multiple climbs, instead of being soft pedalled by their team the entire stage. If I was the Sky DS, my wet dream would Rogers and Porte leading the peloton up the final climb of the day after having kept an easy tempo for the rest of the day. Remember, Wiggins looked in a spot of trouble on the last climb of the day in the last big mountain stage, and Nibbles and Evans have just two days to take 4 mins+ out of him.
After the Tourmalet comes the Col d'Aspin:
The first 8 km or so are a nice easy gradient, after which it kicks up to the top.
Around the 8km to 9km mark is where I think Evans and Nibali and co need to start thinking about going and getting a gap over the descent. It's hard to go earlier and get a good gap in the less steep sections, where Sky can ride a hard tempo from Rogers and Porte.
The plan should be the same as before, Evans goes with TJVG and meets up with one or two BMC riders who hopefully made the break. Looking for 30 sec+ before the descent should be enough to hammer the descent and have, hopefully, well over a minute at the bottom.
Finally, they hit the final climb of the day, the Col de Peyresourde:
A shorter climb than the previous one, but more irregular gradients with some nasty ramps. Another chance to attack team Sky if they contenders haven't already done so, but if they haven't isolated Froom and Wiggins by now, then it may be all too hard and too late.
Hopefully we'll see Evans go on the attack early and hopefully he has ridden into some form. I am hoping he goes on the attack early and takes a few minutes. Anything is possible these days in the Tour, as Andy Schleck showed last year in the stage to the Galibier.
A comment on the stage design:
Ideally, this stage would have been reversed, and we'd have the two Cat 1 climbs followed by the tougher HC climbs and finish after the descent. Having the stage with the Cat 1 climbs first makes it a little bit easier, as the HC climbs at the start will not be ridden as hard. In fact, we may not even get to see the first climb up the Col d'Aubisque as they may not start TV coverage until after it is over.
However, if it was the other way around, we could have ended up with this (disappointing) stage from a few years ago:
With the last climb finishing 60km before the end of the stage, the stage becomes effectively neutralised and it's a gift to the breakaway, as the GC contenders (apart from Alberto!) will all be too hesitant to attack with 45km+ of flat-ish terrain to be caught on.