Rio Olympics

[D-Box]

Qualification for Rio starts in October. Briefly Brazil gets in as hosts, then the top 4 from the next 7s would series automatically qualify, then one place each for Oceania (Probably a tournament but in reality will be Aus v Samoa), Africa, Asia, Europe, North America and South America. The last place would come from a repechage tournament consisting of 4 teams from Europe, 3 from Africa, 3 from Asia, 2 from Oceania, 2 from North America and 2 from South America. One interesting side not is that England, Scotland and Wales will compete at the Olympics as Great Brittain, provided any one individual team qualifies. This will very much open up the repechage tournament. (Details Here)

Based on this year’s standings, and the qualification tournament held in Hong Kong, the teams you would expect in the repechage would be

Europe - Portugal, Spain, Russia, Italy
Africa - Zimbabwe, Tunisia, ???
Asia - Sri Lanka, Hong Kong (not sure if they can compete at the Olympics), ???
North America - USA, Barbados/Trinidad Tobago
South America - Uruguay, Chile
Oceania - Aus/Samoa, Tonga

Funnier things have happened, but you would thing Australia should be able to win the repechage as a worst case scenarioif they haven't qualified automatically or as Oceania. Assuming Oceania doesn't get three teams in the top four of the 2014/2015 World series you would think the 12 teams at the Olympics would be:


Brazil
New Zealand
Fiji
Australia
Samoa
Great Britain
France
South Africa
Kenya
Canada/USA
Japan
Argentina

Edited for clarity

 

[D-Box]

The Women's qualification places and pathways are exactly the same as the Men's. Based on the current world standings with one place to go the Olympic tournament might look something like this

Brazil (Hosts)
New Zealand (7s World Series)
Australia (7s World Series)
Canada (7s World Series)
Great Britain (7s World Series)
Russia (Europe)
USA (North America)
Fiji (Oceania)
Japan (Asia)
Argentina(South America)
Tunisia (Africa)
Spain (Repechage)

I think the Women's is a bit harder to pick as not everyone competes all the time and there are less teams in the competition. Those teams are based on those who have received points in the current world series, but you could see some other teams compete more regularly next year.

 

[D-Box]

Running Qualification

Host - Brazil

1st WS Fiji
2nd WS Samoa
3rd WS Great Britain
4th WS South Africa

Regional Qualifiers (Next lot are tournaments to be held 2nd half 2015 qualifiers but I will assume the they will go the way of the IRB rankings)

Africa Kenya
Asia Japan
Europe France
North America USA
Oceania New Zealand
South America Argentina

Final Qualification tournament (assume the next best team gets this)

Lucky bastards Australia (Final v Portugal/Canada)

It will be interesting to see how this changes across the tournament and I will update after each tournament

 

[Omar Comin']

I think China are more likely to qualify in the women's then Japan. They've been the top women's team in Asia for the past couple of years. Plus, they will be competing in the IRB series as a core team this year after qualifying alongside Fiji, France and South Africa.

If the evidence of the Gold Coast is anything to go by it's going to be very tough to make the top 4 in the series this year. Best case scenario for us, if we don't come top 4, would be for NZ, Fiji and Samoa to be in it as that would all but ensure qualification. Going to the repechage would be nerve wracking. Definitely possible to lose a one off match to a team like USA or Canada. Not qualifying would be a disaster.

 

[D-Box]

My women's predictions are from the end of last year's series. Will update the girls when the series kicks off again

 

[D-Box]

Mens Running Qualification

Host - Brazil

1st WS Fiji
2nd WS South Africa
3rd WS Australia
4th WS New Zealand

Regional Qualifiers (Tournaments to be held 2nd half 2015 but I will assume the they will go the way of the World Rugby Series rankings)

Africa Kenya
Asia Japan
Europe Great Britain
North America USA
Oceania Samoa
South America Argentina

Final Qualification tournament (assume the next best team gets this)

Lucky bastards France (Final v Portugal)

 

[D-Box]

Woman's Running Qualification after Round 1

Host - Brazil

1st WS - New Zealand
2nd WS - Australia
3rd WS - Canada
4th WS - France

Regional Qualifiers (Tournaments to be held 2nd half of 2015 qualifiers but I will assume the they will go the way of the World Rugby Series rankings)

Africa - South Africa
Asia - China
Europe - Great Britain
North America - USA
Oceania - Fiji
South America ???????? (only South American team that played was Brazil who are already qualified)

Final Qualification tournament (assume the next best team gets this)

Lucky Bastards - Russia

 

[D-Box]

Men's Running Qualification (Round 3)

Host - Brazil

1st WS South Africa (59 points)
2nd WS Fiji (51 points)
3rd WS New Zealand (47 points)
4th WS Australia (46 points)

(Next two teams are Argentina (40 points) and England (37 points)

Regional Qualifiers (Tournaments to be held 2nd half 2015 but I will assume the they will go the way of the World Rugby Series rankings)

Africa Kenya
Asia Japan
Europe Great Britain
North America USA
Oceania Samoa
South America Argentina

Final Qualification tournament (assume the next best team gets this)

Lucky bastards France (Final v Portugal/Canada)

Regular Tournament Series Points are

22 Cup champs
19 2nd
17 3rd
15 4th
13 Plate Champs
12 Plate RU
10 7th & 8th
8 Bowl Champs
7 Bowl RU
5 11th & 12th
3 13th
2 14th
1 15th & 16th

 

[D-Box]

As an aside World Rugby and the IOC must be a little bit worried about the performance of Argentina. As Brazil qualify as hosts, if Argentina makes it into the top four, which looks quit possible based on the last two tournaments, that would mean there would be another South American team featuring in the tournament. That has the potential to mean one of Aus, Samoa, Fiji or New Zealand could miss out if they are pushed to the final qualification tournament and don't preform, as well as missing competitive teams who feature regularly like France, Canada and Portugal. It could also mean that there is only one team from Europe if England can't push up into the top 4. All of these teams are currently sitting higher than Kenya and Japan who look like shoe ins as Africa and Asia respectively.

As it is a 12 team tournament it could make it very interesting who falls in what pool for qualification as 1-4 in the QF with one pool probably two strong and two week teams

 

[Omar Comin']

Have WR (World Rugby) said what format will be used at the olympics? 3 pools of 4 or 2 pools of 6?

Uruguay and Chile must be a bit excited. Neither are close to top 12 sevens nations but as you say, they have a shot with Argentina performing so well in the series. I guess if 3 South American nations did end up making it to the Olympics it wouldn't be the end of the world, and might help sell more tickets and create more atmosphere in Rio.

But I'd still be surprised if that happens. When push comes to shove Argentina have less on the line than the likes of Australia and England/GB. If Argentina miss out on the top 4 they'll still almost certainly qualify for the Olympics, while the other contenders have much trickier opponents in regional qualifying. I think that should provide extra motivation.

Have they said where the final qualifying tournament will be held?

 

[D-Box]

I can't find anything about the qualification tournaments other than that they will be between July and December 2015 with dates confirmed by 31 December 2014.

Haven't seen anything about the tournament structure yet.

 

[D-Box]

Men's Running Qualification (Round 4 - Wellington)

Host - Brazil

1st WS South Africa (76 points)
2nd WS New Zealand (69 points)
3rd WS Fiji (64 points)
4th WS Australia (58 points)

(Next two teams are England (56 points) and Argentina (47 points))

Regional Qualifiers (Tournaments to be held 2nd half 2015 but I will assume the they will go the way of the World Rugby Series rankings)

Africa Kenya
Asia Japan
Europe Great Britain
North America USA
Oceania Samoa
South America Argentina

Final Qualification tournament (assume the next best team gets this)

Lucky bastards France (Final v Portugal/Canada)

Regular Tournament Series Points are

22 Cup champs
19 2nd
17 3rd
15 4th
13 Plate Champs
12 Plate RU
10 7th & 8th
8 Bowl Champs
7 Bowl RU
5 11th & 12th
3 13th
2 14th
1 15th & 16th

 

[D-Box]

So looking at the standings if Australia wants to garunetee their place they need to keep beating England, Argentina and the sleeping giant of the USA - got two of these this round

 

[D-Box]

Woman's Running Qualification after Round 2 (Brazil)

Host - Brazil

1st WS - New Zealand (40)
2nd WS - Australia (36)
3rd WS - Canada (32)
4th WS - France (28)

Next two teams are England (24) and USA (18)

Regional Qualifiers (Tournaments to be held 2nd half of 2015 but I will assume the they will go the way of the World Rugby Series rankings)

Africa - South Africa
Asia - China
Europe - Great Britain
North America - USA
Oceania - Fiji
South America ???????? (only South American team to have played Brazil who are already qualified)

Final Qualification tournament (assume the next best team gets this)

Lucky Bastards - Russia

Tournament Points

20 - Cup Champs
18 - Runners Up
16 - Third Place
14 - Fourth Place
12 - Plate Champs
10 - Plate Runners Up
8 - 7th
6 - 6th
4 - Bowl Champs
3 - Bowl Runners Up
2 - 11th
1 - 12th

 

[D-Box]

Men's Running Qualification (Round 5 - USA 51)

Host - Brazil

1st WS South Africa (93 points)
2nd WS New Zealand (88 points)
3rd WS Fiji (86 points)
4th WS Australia (71 points)

(Next three teams are England (68 points), Argentina (54 points) and the USA)

Regional Qualifiers (Tournaments to be held 2nd half 2015 but I will assume the they will go the way of the World Rugby Series rankings)

Africa Kenya
Asia Japan
Europe Great Britain
North America USA
Oceania Samoa
South America Argentina

Final Qualification tournament (assume the next best team gets this)

Lucky bastards France (Final v Portugal/Canada)

Regular Tournament Series Points are

22 Cup champs
19 2nd
17 3rd
15 4th
13 Plate Champs
12 Plate RU
10 7th & 8th
8 Bowl Champs
7 Bowl RU
5 11th & 12th
3 13th
2 14th
1 15th & 16th

 

[WorkingClassRugger]

Men's Running Qualification (Round 5 - USA 51)

Host - Brazil

1st WS South Africa (93 points)
2nd WS New Zealand (88 points)
3rd WS Fiji (86 points)
4th WS Australia (71 points)

(Next three teams are England (68 points), Argentina (54 points) and the USA)

Regional Qualifiers (Tournaments to be held 2nd half 2015 but I will assume the they will go the way of the World Rugby Series rankings)

Africa Kenya
Asia Japan
Europe Great Britain
North America USA
Oceania Samoa
South America Argentina

Final Qualification tournament (assume the next best team gets this)

Lucky bastards France (Final v Portugal/Canada)

Regular Tournament Series Points are

22 Cup champs
19 2nd
17 3rd
15 4th
13 Plate Champs
12 Plate RU
10 7th & 8th
8 Bowl Champs
7 Bowl RU
5 11th & 12th
3 13th
2 14th
1 15th & 16th

So who is our main threat?Wouldn't England be excluded from contention as they don't actually compete in the Olympics or have they decided that the highest ranked team from the UK would assume the GB? Otherwise, we do have a handy gap on both Argentina and the USA.

 

[qwerty51]

England are qualifying as GB.

 

[D-Box]

So who is our main threat?Wouldn't England be excluded from contention as they don't actually compete in the Olympics or have they decided that the highest ranked team from the UK would assume the GB? Otherwise, we do have a handy gap on both Argentina and the USA.

No as qwerty said - England in the top four equals a GB team in the Olympics.

As to a separate issue I just found this info on Wikipedia but surprise, surprise found it impossible to confirm anywhere else. If anyone can do it that would be awesome.

Dates and venues for regional qualification tournaments

2015 CONSUR 7's Olympic Qualifying Tournament 8 June 2015 TBA
2015 NACRA 7's Olympic Qualifying Tournament 14 June 2015 Cary, United States
2015 Rugby Europe 7's Olympic Qualifying Tournament 12 July 2015 Various
2015 ARFU 7's Olympic Qualifying Tournament 8 November 2015 Hong Kong
2015 CAR 7's Olympic Qualifying Tournament 8 November 2015 Kenya
2015 FORU 7's Olympic Qualifying Tournament 15 November 2015 Auckland, New Zealand

 

[D-Box]

Woman's Running Qualification after Round 3 (Atlanta)

Host - Brazil

1st WS - New Zealand (60)
2nd WS - Australia (48)
3rd WS - Canada (48)
4th WS - France (38

Next two teams are USA (36) and England (32)

Regional Qualifiers (Tournaments to be held 2nd half of 2015 but I will assume the they will go the way of the World Rugby Series rankings)

Africa - South Africa
Asia - China
Europe - Great Britain (Russia only 4 points behind)
North America - USA
Oceania - Fiji
South America ???????? (only South American team to have played Brazil who are already qualified)

Final Qualification tournament (assume the next best team gets this)

Lucky Bastards - Russia

Tournament Points

20 - Cup Champs
18 - Runners Up
16 - Third Place
14 - Fourth Place
12 - Plate Champs
10 - Plate Runners Up
8 - 7th
6 - 6th
4 - Bowl Champs
3 - Bowl Runners Up
2 - 11th
1 - 12th

 

[Omar Comin']

The women's series is becoming more competitive very quickly. New Zealand haven't lost yet this season, but Australia and Canada have run them close a few times in big matches. And then beneath those 3 the likes of France, England, USA and Russia have become competitive, if a little inconsistent. The USA and Russia both finished ahead of Australia in the most recent event in Atlanta so we're no certainty to medal when the Olympics come around.

And then beneath them teams like Fiji, China and Brazil are improving pretty quickly. Probably not quickly enough to be genuine medal contenders in Rio, but I wouldn't say it's impossible.