Sorry about that
@The_Brown_Hornet we tried really hard but, y'know...
Aus will surely beat Afghanistan by enough to finish with a positive NRR* & 7 points. NZ
should beat Ireland to also finish with 7 & a NRR in the +2 to +3 range.
So you're now relying on SL to punt the Poms which isn't out of the question but SL are a bit hit & miss these days so who knows.
* Edit: from a NZ pov this doesn't matter: Aus likely aren't going from -0.3 to +3.5 or better so for us it's all about SL NOT beating England: per my earlier post we don't want to be playing Aus in a Final in Aus. Eng, Ind or SA we can beat on our day (not so sure about two of them back to back, but).