The road home - Super rugby 2014

[Pfitzy]

Well, it could be Tahs 1st, Brumbies 6th, and besides the Sharks, any Kiwis in between...

 

[Forcefield]

So the ideal scenario from here for Australia is:

Crusaders win their final 2 (likely since they are both home games)
Chiefs beat the Canes (home) and lose to the Blues (away) also likely.
Highlanders lose to the Tahs along with their loss to the Crusaders.

That would leave the Highlanders on 42, Hurricanes on 41, and Blues and Chiefs on 40. Plus any bonus points they pick up. The Brumbies could then technically qualify off 1 or 2 bonus points and the Force off 5 or 6.

Yeah I know. Clutching at straws.

 

[Pfitzy]

Mathematically its possible for three Aussie teams to finish in the top 6. Unlikely though. I would love the Sharks to finish third and lose in the first week, and the Tahs and Clan fight it out for the Final.

Tahs
Clan
Sharks
Crusaders
Brumbies
Force

Aussie teams win away in the first week just to remind everyone how awesome we are

 

[Forcefield]

The Sharks are probably not a team the Force want to play. They have the same forward power that the Blues tore us to pieces with.

It will be interesting to see who is back in the final round for the Brumbies.

 

[Pfitzy]

Here's the reality of it in my mind, for the games that matter to the final positions:

Round 18
Chiefs v Canes - Hurricanes win after a big one last week over the Saders
Crusaders v Blues - tough to pick. Crusaders will be formidable at home and take it
Force v Reds - Reds outplayed the Rebels, but the Force will be stinging and pull out a close win
Cheetahs v Sharks - Sharks will be simply too clinical with Jakeball
Waratahs v Highlanders - win in Sydney would be a big ask even for the scintillating clan.

Round 19
Blues v Chiefs - at home the Blues are solids to win
Brumbies v Force - Ponies should do this at home.
Crusaders v Highlanders - At home again, the Saders will find form with Carter back at 10. Probably in bad weather.
Reds v Waratahs - the Reds fans will enjoy rubbing my face in it if they win*
Stormers v Sharks - at home the Stormers are a very different prospect to earlier in the season

Just counting basic 4 = win, 0 = loss, the points come out to:

56 Tahs (12 wins)
50 Crusaders (11 wins)
49 Sharks (11 wins)
45 Canes (9 wins)
44 Brumbies (10 wins - tsk tsk for the lack of bonus points)
42 Highlanders (8 wins)

40 Force (9 wins)
40 Blues (8 wins)
36 Stormers (8 wins)
36 Chiefs (6 wins)
32 Bulls (7 wins)
28 Reds (5 wins)
26 Lions (6 wins)
24 Cheetahs (4 wins)
21 Rebels (4 wins)

So there might be a few bonus points in there to spice things up. From there you'd be hard pressed to go past a Tahs v Crusaders final based on home side advantage. And with Carter back to run things, any fucking thing could happen. Particularly as the two sides didn't meet in regular season.

All speccy right now of course. Still got to wait for the rugby gods to cast their dice...


* Despite the complete arsehat their season has turned into. Just like the good old days. They should get a good crowd too.

 

[Hawko]

Here's the reality of it in my mind, for the games that matter to the final positions:

Round 18
Chiefs v Canes - Hurricanes win after a big one last week over the Saders
Crusaders v Blues - tough to pick. Crusaders will be formidable at home and take it
Force v Reds - Reds outplayed the Rebels, but the Force will be stinging and pull out a close win
Cheetahs v Sharks - Sharks will be simply too clinical with Jakeball
Waratahs v Highlanders - win in Sydney would be a big ask even for the scintillating clan.

Round 19
Blues v Chiefs - at home the Blues are solids to win
Brumbies v Force - Ponies should do this at home.
Crusaders v Highlanders - At home again, the Saders will find form with Carter back at 10. Probably in bad weather.
Reds v Waratahs - the Reds fans will enjoy rubbing my face in it if they win*
Stormers v Sharks - at home the Stormers are a very different prospect to earlier in the season

Just counting basic 4 = win, 0 = loss, the points come out to:

56 Tahs (12 wins)
50 Crusaders (11 wins)
49 Sharks (11 wins)
45 Canes (9 wins)
44 Brumbies (10 wins - tsk tsk for the lack of bonus points)
42 Highlanders (8 wins)

40 Force (9 wins)
40 Blues (8 wins)
So there might be a few bonus points in there to spice things up.

All speccy right now of course. Still got to wait for the rugby gods to cast their dice.

Good analysis Pfitzy, I agree with almost all of it.

The game everyone will be watching in trepidation is the Crusaders vs Blues. The Crusaders this year lack a backline to go with the Whitelock forward power. The Blues have a very good squad but have been rubbish for most of the season. If the sleeping giant of NZ rugby wakes up, lookout everyone.

If the Blues win and the Saders lose, that puts the Sharks in place for a home game quarter and semi final and just one trip to Sydney for the final. Not a great prospect with their forward pack. I would prefer they played a quarter final at home and then lost the semi away to the Crusaders (or had a physically draining win).

If the Sharks have to win away to the Stormers to get a home semi I think they'll manage it, but I hope not. So the easiest path for us is the Crusaders getting up over the Blues. Even so, the Blues could make sixth on bonus points, but they would play every finals game away. I can't see them beating the Sharks in Durban as flakey as the Blues are.

That still leaves us playing the Crusaders or Sharks in the final. I have indelible memories of the two finals against the Crusaders, so I would like it to be someone else, though those Crusader teams were virtual NZ test teams and this one certainly is not. But the Sharks forward pack plus Lambie are formidable too and I fear them if they get 2nd.

We are so close I can almost taste it, but I'm as nervous as hell! Those rugby gods can't kill us thrice can they?

 

[Lindommer]

The best scenario for the Tahs would be for the Sharks to finish second. Then our opponent in the final (presuming everything else goes to plan) would've travelled across the Indian Ocean to meet us. The very best would be if it was a Kiwi side who'd just beaten the Sharks, surely two trips across the Indian Ocean'd be too much to overcome.

The Tahs' destiny is now completely in their hands. Play well and the only travel for the rest of the comp is a short stroll up to Brisbane. No other team can look forward to such an easy end to this year's comp as the Tahs.

 

[Biffo]

i think Mr Lindommer has it right. the Tahs' best way to the championship is to win their next four games, regardless of what the other contenders do. as he notes, it might help if the other contender in a final in Sydney had to fly, preferably twice, across the puddle to Australia's west in the week before such a very hypothetical game. however, beating the Highlanders on Sunday would help far more. a week later, beating the gentlemen in red from across our northern border would help even more.

 

[Pfitzy]

If the Sharks could lose this week, that'd be marvy for my blood pressure.

 

[Biffo]

Mr Pfitzy, may i suggest that the Tahs' current position is that where the common dictum "take it one game at a time" really is apt, for once? my BP was 130-90 yesterday; i have no reading for pre-game on the prior day. trust in The Great Cheik, the tight five, KB (Kurtley Beale) and Izzy and relax.

 

[qwerty51]

This is what I've come up with

Waratahs 57
Sharks 54
Crusaders 48
Brumbies 45 (10 wins)
Hurricanes 45 (9 wins +80)
Blues 45 (9 wins +65)

Highlanders 43
Force 41

 

[Braveheart81]

This is what I've come up with

Waratahs 57
Sharks 54
Crusaders 51
Brumbies 45 (10 wins)
Hurricanes 45 (9 wins +80)
Blues 45 (9 wins +65)

Highlanders 43
Force 41

That doesn't quite work.

The Crusaders and Blues play each other this week. They can't both win their last two games.

 

[qwerty51]

Oops meant to be Crusaders 48, got them losing to the Blues next week.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Oops meant to be Crusaders 48, got them losing to the Blues next week.

Would rather see the finishing order as :
Tahs
Crusaders
Shorks
Hurricanes
Brumbies
Highlanders or Force.

Think it could happen, and the Highlanders, if they make it, would be a good chance against the Sharks in the first of the finals. Brumbies at full strength would also be a chance against the Canes. Beat them up in a Canes home game early in the season.

 

[D-Box]

So the best option for Australian teams is Blues over Chiefs and both the Force and Brumbies to get a point out of their game

 

[Forcefield]

Pretty much. We need the Stormers to beat the Bulls tonight though.

 

[Tomikin]

Brumbies to do it the hard way knocking the sharks out in SA then coming back to knock the Tahs off in the final.. easy

 

[qwerty51]

Brumbies and Force will surely organise a draw

Rare occasion that is actually benefits both sides!

 

[ChargerWA]

But then if the Chiefs win they leapfrog us both.

 

[Forcefield]

Only with a bonus point win and assuming that neither the Force or Brumbies get the 4 try bonus point win.

I'm pretty confident the Blues will beat the Chiefs.