The Run IN to the SEMIS

[PaarlBok]

This one now taking a bit of shape and myself will try and give you lot the Saffer look into this. Two SA teams going strong and this is the 1st place Sharks and third place Brutes. The other SA teams gone but still have a all important role to play to get us two teams in the semis. The one thing that will count heavy now is Springbok places for the tour of the UK Lions. That one will drive all our teams and important for the out of contention lot.

Being the most positive Saffer supporter on Planet Earth this is the way I see our run ins, so lets starter with the lower lot.

CHEETAHS:
Well one hell of a surprise from them on the weekend. In my books a much better team then the log shows and I am sure they'll work from this weekend to show they belong in S14 rugby. At home in Osfontein they play some big teams over the next few rounds starting this weekend with the Chiefs in Kimberley. Against a suppose to be top forward Shark pack they hit them the hardest just there. Thats the one place they have to hurt the Chiefs , in the forwards and let Brussouw, Juan Smith & Scholtz do some damage at the breakdowns. Then the have the Tahs, Saders & a dead rubber against the Stormers. Any overseas win may just crack another extra to the Sharks and Brutes.

LIONS:
They struggle as expected by myself against the Blues without Baywatch and Doppies. For some obscrene reason they left a highly talented 12 Walla Venter at home. If they dont get disrupted by more injuries expect them to beat more teams. No way the likes Jac Fourie, Petoors & Baywatch will stop play now. The last two games important, Saders & Clan at home.

STORMERS:
Sure they cant keep on losing by 7 like they do at the moment. Some Springbok Caps for Jantjes, Jean de Villiers , Januarie, Schalkie, Bekker (will be back this weekend fingers crossed) & Mujatsi. They have to turn the tide this weekend against the Canes. This is the one side they have a curse on and they will have no fear playing them in Wellington. Important for Schalk Burger to hit the form button. If he is on fire the Stormers usually follow suite. They have a very important role to play helping the Brutes and Sharks just have to play to their potential and knock over anyone of the Canes, Clan or Chiefs.

The two front runners

Sharks:
Logpoints 30
Games left Saders (H) 4, Highlanders (H) 5, Tahs (H) 4, Bulls (H) 4,
Total 47

The Sharks disappointed but myself think the lost have come just at the right time for them. The Saders may have McAwe back but the Sharks will have Pienaar, JP Pietersen & Deysel back. All three will play for a Bok jersey and will turn them around. They have a easy 4 home games left and should have a home semi and end in nr1.

Bulls
Logpoints 27
Brumbies (A) 4, Chiefs (H) 4, Force (H) 5, Cheetahs (H) 5, Sharks (A) 1,
Total 46

This weekend surprise. They will play this weekend without Matfield and Bakkies but myself is sure those to losses will be cancelled out with Stegman back, Pakslae and the talented Wilhelm Steenkamp in lock. Habana will go one better this time and sure they'll more then match the Brumbies with their defense and brutal play. I still predict a lose against the Sharks and believe if there is one team for the big ones , its this lot. No way they will throw it away from here and most definetly not in the Bull Ring.

 

[cyclopath]

As usual, your Saffer-centric optimism is heartening to see, but I reckon the Sharks might lose 1 more, but should still top it.
The Bulls / Brutes - without Matfield and Botha they lose a key weapon, despite what you say about their replacements, and the Brumbies will be hard to topple at Canberra, especially since they have a back who can kick properly (Gerrard). And I think they'd be more likely to get a BP against the Chiefs than the Force - Force defence is pretty tough to crack, whereas the Chiefs leak a bit more. Then again, they score more too!
All up though, PB, I will be very surprised if the Tjarks and the Brutes are not close to 1-2.

 

[steiner]

Can't see the Bulls beating the Brumbies, personally, and they'll be challenged strongly by the Chiefs and the Force even though they are at home. Sharks have got some big challenges ahead as well.

 

[PaarlBok]

Can't see the Bulls beating the Brumbies, personally.

Why do you think that?

The Ponies was piss poor this far and havent impressed me at all over the weekend, or the one before or the one before or the one before.

The Brutes sure show their value beating the Tahs and Canes at home on their tour.

 

[steiner]

A number of reasons I suppose. Matfield and Botha out a pretty big one. I think Gerrard will be good under pressure and defuse a lot of the rain-making bombs the Bulls put up. Brumbies tight five played well last match. I think The Brumbies can match it with the Bulls in tight, at home. The halves are on the continual improve. George Smith. Centres playing well. Alfi Mafi. Loosies Chapman and Salvi playing pretty well.

I always thought the Brumbies would finish the season strongly. Doubly so now they're playing for Mackay.

 

[fatprop]

Can't see the Bulls beating the Brumbies, personally.

Why do you think that?

The Ponies was piss poor this far and havent impressed me at all over the weekend, or the one before or the one before or the one before.

The Brutes sure show their value beating the Tahs and Canes at home on their tour.

The Bulls won last week because they won the field position contest with the Tahs, they won't against the Brumbies, Gerrard is better than SNK.

They also leveraged that with a dominant lineout that won turnovers, now they have no Matfield and Botha and the Brumbies have as good a lineout thrower as there is in the world. So I expect their strengths of last week to be negated.

 

[Grandmaster Flash]

Chapman's been excellent in the lineout in the two past games and they've got four decent options (five if you chuck Smith in the air) to throw to.

Lealifano has also improved a lot since his shockers early on in the comp, and his running game has really come on with a couple of great individual tries.

Think (and hope) the Brums will get up.

 

[Biffo]

Gerrard is out

 

[PaarlBok]

Gerrard is out

Thats then good news for the Brutes.

I have been watching the Brumbies closely the last couple of weeks. They seem to play good for just a time , make it 20 minutes per game but dont look like the side of a few years back. The Saffer sides and specially the Brutes defensive pattern is much better then a year back and this ping pong kicking play right into their hands. If they can keep the Brumbies out for a long time they will win this one easily. For the Brutes Fourie du Preez is the general and if they control things up front they wont be beaten. The games they lost was against the bigger packs like the Clan. Plus the days the Brutes travel bad is long gone. We'll see if I am wrong but that Brute team is full of confedense this year and in my eyes the favourate to make it 2 in 3 years.

I am suppose to hate them!. :lmao:

 

[PaarlBok]

Right so both Sharks and Brutes dropping me this weekend. The Sharks a big disappointment at the moment and they starting to lose the plot now completely. The log now pretty narrow and anyone calling the S14 boring sure needs a big kick up his arse. The Kiwi teams now start to show their real value and closing the gap in a matter of two rounds on our two teams. Flippen exciting if you ask me and please give ONeil a hint.


Sharks:
Logpoints 31
Games left Highlanders (H) 5, Tahs (H) 4, Bulls (H) 4,
Total 44

Cant afford anymore slip ups. Drop a game and they are in danger of winning like nothing.

Bulls
Logpoints 29
Chiefs (H) 4, Force (H) 5, Cheetahs (H) 5, Sharks (A) 1,
Total 44

Still give them one loose against the Sharks but if this two have to play this weekend I'll put my money on the Brutes. They'll be tough in the ring and the big one is this weekend. Double points on offer for them. If they can win the Chioefs and Sharks game they'll finish at the top and will be difficult to beat them.

At this stage I'll be honest and think any two of Hurricanes/Blues/Chiefs look like joining the Brutes and Sharks for semi spots. That is if the Sharks can get their mojo back.

 

[Spook]

I don't think the Brumbies will make it with Sheperdson, Gerrard, Lealiifano and Chisolm out - the opposition is also very tough. However, the starting tight 5 has come on a lot this year so I'm happy with that for 09. Holmes and Lealiifano have also improved out of site. Lealiifano could be a very good 12.

 

[PaarlBok]

This one now getting really tough. Some big games coming up in the last two rounds. Still think the Brutes and Sharks are favourates to get to the semis, problem is they have to play each other still but so have the Blues & Canes and the Chiefs and Canes. Force now hitting their strips, problem is they and the Tahs have to come to WC country and the Force will have the Brutes and Stormers and the Tahs the Lions & Sharks.

Now please write SANZAR a letter and tell them they making a lot of kak trying to change this thing called S14 rugby!

Great win by the Cheetahs, Reds & Stormers this weekend! They suppose to lose.

 

[louie]

Great win by the Cheetahs, Reds & Stormers this weekend! They suppose to lose.

really keeps the comp alive. Brumbies are on ninth and are only one win away

 

[Scarfman]

Last couple of weeks reults have made everyone's predictions look a bit silly. The pre-tournament favourites have miraculously stormed back into the lead. What if the Force actually make it? Some red faces on G&GR I would think.

1. Hurricanes 34
2. Bulls 33
3. Chiefs 32
4. Sharks 31
5. Blues 30
6. Force 28
7. Waratahs 28
8. Crusaders 27
9. Brumbies 27
10. Highlanders 23
11. Stormers 19
12. Lions 19
13. Reds 18
14. Cheetahs 11

The top 9 still with a chance with 3 games to go. I wonder how many points Hickey thinks the Waratahs will need to make the finals. :

 

[Scarfman]

The run home for the top 9:

Hurricanes - Blues (H) Chiefs (A) Reds (A)
Bulls - Force (H) Cheetahs (H) Shorks (A)
Chiefs - Stormers (A) Hurricanes (H) Brumbies (H)
Shorks - Highlanders (H) Waratahs (H) Bulls (H)
Blues - Hurricanes (A) Brumbies (A) Crusaders (H)
Force - Bulls (A) Stormers (A) Highlanders (H)
Waratahs - Cheetahs (A) Shorks (A) Lions (A)
Crusaders - Lions (A) Reds (H) Blues (A)
Brumbies - Reds (A) Blues (H) Chiefs (A)

I can see a lot of 2/3 wins in that lot. Pretty tough for 6-9 to break into the top 4. But who the fuck knows what's going to happen? Maybe the Canes will fall back to 3rd or 4th? I reckon the Bulls will go all the way. But there could be some very interesting travel plans in there.

 

[cyclopath]

I think BPs will be of crucial significance this year more than ever - especially for the Aus teams. Fact that the Brumbies and Tahs seem incapable of getting them would make them very long shots IMHO. Of course, it would help if the bloody Reds didn't give 'em away like candy to the Blues... :fishing You'd almost think they didn't want the Force to make it.

 

[formeropenside]

I think BPs will be of crucial significance this year more than ever - especially for the Aus teams. Fact that the Brumbies and Tahs seem incapable of getting them would make them very long shots IMHO. Of course, it would help if the bloody Reds didn't give 'em away like candy to the Blues... :fishing You'd almost think they didn't want the Force to make it.

almost

 

[PaarlBok]

The run home for the top 9:

Hurricanes - Blues (H) Chiefs (A) Reds (A)
Bulls - Force (H) Cheetahs (H) Shorks (A)
Chiefs - Stormers (A) Hurricanes (H) Brumbies (H)
Shorks - Highlanders (H) Waratahs (H) Bulls (H)
Blues - Hurricanes (A) Brumbies (A) Crusaders (H)
Force - Bulls (A) Stormers (A) Highlanders (H)
Waratahs - Cheetahs (A) Shorks (A) Lions (A)
Crusaders - Lions (A) Reds (H) Blues (A)
Brumbies - Reds (A) Blues (H) Chiefs (A)

Some hard classes and a week to week approch needed. Look at the moment the teams are so close, those out of contention play with a bit more freedom and get them at the right result.

If I had money I'll put it on the Brutes to go all the way. Not easy to beat them at the Ring and the Sharks class not something strange for them. They have the pedigree to get a home semi and if they end at the top of the log, sure they'll take it from there.

 

[chriscullen]

It looks like the top 4 at the moment will all make the semis but with results like last weekend then anyone can still win. It wouldnt suprise me if the blues after a terrible display , beat the canes this weekend. They will almost certainly score 4 tries and secure a bonus point. The tahs and brumbies have won one more game than the blues yet sit beneath them on the table.

 

[Scarfman]

I'm reviving this thread.

Here we are with 2 to go. I've kicked the Force and the Blues out of contention, leaving 7 teams and 4 spots. I've added points differential as it will probably be relevant.

1 Hurricanes 39 (+100)
2 Chiefs 37 (+91)
3 Bulls 37 (+57)
4 Sharks 35 (+48)
5 Waratahs 32 (+20)
6 Crusaders 32 (+11)
7 Brumbies 32 (-13)

The run home:

Hurricanes - Chiefs (A) Reds (A)
Chiefs - Hurricanes (H) Brumbies (H)
Bulls - Cheetahs (H) Shorks (A)
Shorks - Waratahs (H) Bulls (H)
Waratahs - Shorks (A) Lions (A)
Crusaders - Reds (H) Blues (A)
Brumbies - Blues (H) Chiefs (A)

Realistically, I think only the Shorks could miss the top 4. Brumby fans will hope that the Bulls beat them in Durban. The only way the Tahs will get there is if they beat them next week. The chances of the Tahs losing to the Shorks but making the finals anyway are miniscule.

Given that one of the Chiefs and Canes will lose next week, the Bulls could go to the top of the table by smashing the Cheetahs.

In my opinion:

Hurricanes W W 1st
Bulls W W 2nd
Chiefs L W 3rd
Crusaders W W 4th
Shorks W L 5th
Waratahs L W 6th
Brumbies W L 7th