Wallabies Watch

[Dave Beat]

Exactly how I am feeling. Deans had a unique opportunity here:
- multiple super teams playing good rugby
- multiple form players that are exciting to watch
- likely the most watched test series in a decade in this country
- many fans from outside of rugby turning on the tv to have a gander
This is a critical series in terms of the overall state of the game in this country. We have the opportunity to play both attractive and winning rugby, yet all indications are that deans will be looking for boring and not losing by much rugby. If this occurs it will be a massive opportunity lost IMO.

Scotty, the thoughts / suggestions are along the lines of "Deans probably will" - people wondering what the team would look like - speculation based on Dean's past performance.
Right you are with those 4 points - we could have a very solid side if the Super standings are anything to go by.

Where are these indications?
As far as I can see this all speculation as to the way he's thinking.
The one player that should, on form/experience, have been in the mix trashed his relationship with Deans.
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IS - Ah yes speculation at this stage, I hope we pick a team to win, rather than look at their team and wonder how we need to defend.
Yes the player who trashed his relationship with Deans V's the general (not all) rugby public who try to understand Dean's approach to the game, to winning, to a game plan. Well I can't work it out any way.

 

[Braveheart81]

So the 25 man squad is announced on Sunday as we all know. I'm guessing there are still a bunch of spots up in the air.

My thoughts are that the following players are pretty much guaranteed to be in the 25 man squad:

Alexander, Robinson, Slipper
Moore, TPN
Horwill, Douglas
Higginbotham
Hooper (no idea if Smith is going to get selected and if he does, Gill may miss out. I'm pretty sure Hooper will be there based on how well he performed last year)
Palu
Genia, White
JOC (James O'Connor)
AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
Ioane, Folau

So that is 16 people that should be locked in.

Aside from them I think we will see a prop, a lock, a 6, an 8, a 7, 2x 12s, a wing, a 10/15.

I'm guessing that last group will be one of each of the following players:

Kepu, Ryan, Sio, Palmer
Simmons or Timani
2 out of Dennis, Mowen, Auelua
Smith or Gill
2 out of Lealiifano, Tapuai, Horne, McCabe
Tomane, Cummins, Mitchell (really I expect Tomane to be in there for sure. Maybe should put him up in the definites)
Mogg or Cooper

I think Barnes and MMM will both have spots in the final 6 pencilled in for them if they return well in the next couple of weeks.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Yeah but he hadn't played 0 tests at 15 leading into a BIL tour with a coach who seemingly doesn't want him in the 15 to begin with!

MInor details

 

[USARugger]

An average Wales side? You mean the Wales side that came within a bees dick of beating France and playing in the RWC final? The Wales side that then went on to win the six nations?
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The Welsh side we played in the down under series was a shadow of the Welsh RWC side and this Six Nations was pretty abysmal all around.

 

[Braveheart81]

The Welsh side we played in the down under series was a shadow of the Welsh RWC side and this Six Nations was pretty abysmal all around.

The fact remains that they were a very good team before that series and they were the best team in Europe after that series.

Maybe everyone sucks except New Zealand?

 

[Scotty]

I still wouldn't start Folau, and I don't think Deans will either. Bench for me and not even there if he hasn't signed

With Beale gone I wouldn't be surprised to see Barnes slotted in at 15. He did very well for Deans and the Wobs there last season, he is safe and proven.

I don't expect to see any debutantes starting the first test, there maybe a few on the bench though

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He did well from a defensive point of view, but his propensity to kick away good counter attacking ball is appalling.

 

[barbarian]

The negativity here is getting to me. Ultimately everyone is debating two, maybe three positions.

1. Fly Half. People want Cooper, and seem to think JOC (James O'Connor) (the likely candidate it seems) and Barnes are abhorrent, disgusting options. But I must remind you of a few things. Firstly, even if Deans DID pick Cooper (which he probably won't, but you never know) this doesn't turn us into a razzle-dazzle Harlem Globetrotter team. Cooper was 10 at the RWC. Cooper was 10 in tests last year where we struggled to score tries. He isn't the silver bullet here.

The converse is also true. JOC (James O'Connor) and Barnes aren't going to turn us into a stodgy, negative mess. With JOC (James O'Connor) at 10 the Rebels have scored about 12 tries in their last 3 games. Barnes has only played 10 at the Tahs for 10 minutes but set up a try in that time. The Reds with Cooper at 10 have been OK, but apart from the first half against the Sharks they haven't been scoring tries. I am not convinced the difference between Cooper, JOC (James O'Connor) and Barnes is that huge at 10.

I'd suggest it is more likely we see Barnes at fullback than at 10. And he is a pretty good fullback, certainly the best games at 15 last year came from him. His stability under the high ball will be a valuable asset.

2. Inside Centre. People are desperate for Lealiifano, and I'd think he would certainly be in the squad. If Deans picks Pat McCabe then it will be controversial, but what if he picks Rob Horne? Could many people argue with that selection? Both McCabe and Horne have proven chops at the international level, and Horne is just hitting form at the right time- he was huge in test match conditions on Saturday.

And again people assume that our whole style hinges on playing two playmakers, and if we don't we will be a negative mess. Again two things contradict that assertion- our worst game last year came with two playmakers (vs NZ away) and the most attacking Aussie side this season (the Tahs) don't play two playmakers. The Reds chalked up a great win with a basher at IC.

3. Fullback. I suppose this is related to fly half, so I will refer to what I said up there.

But if you step back and look at the big picture, everyone is more or less on the same page. The forward pack looks pretty good, with multiple options in each spot. And ultimately that is where this series will be won and lost. If they get go forward ball then JOC (James O'Connor), Barnes and Horne/McCabe are more than equipped to make things happen.

So in conclusion I am not as worried as the rest of you. Lighten up and crack a smile. Life is OK, and I expect the rugby in June to be OK as well.
.

 

[USARugger]

In 2011 everyone but Wales and NZ more or less did.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

People seem to think that these tests will be just like s 15 games and that, accordingly, we should be picking players who have performed well in s 15 but have yet to play a test.
I think it is inevitable that if you pick debutants, at least in 1st test, they will not all come up to the mark and it is something of a lottery as to which will fail and which will succeed.
Who is to know how Lilo will go in test rugby?
McCabe is a known quantity and he suits test match style rugby.
Folau is a special case because he has played at that level in another code.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Scotty, the thoughts / suggestions are along the lines of "Deans probably will" - people wondering what the team would look like - speculation based on Dean's past performance.
Right you are with those 4 points - we could have a very solid side if the Super standings are anything to go by.





IS - Ah yes speculation at this stage, I hope we pick a team to win, rather than look at their team and wonder how we need to defend.
Yes the player who trashed his relationship with Deans V's the general (not all) rugby public who try to understand Dean's approach to the game, to winning, to a game plan. Well I can't work it out any way.

Not sure i can either - but thats why he gets the big bucks and we get the shits

 

[barbarian]

The Welsh side we played in the down under series was a shadow of the Welsh RWC side and this Six Nations was pretty abysmal all around.

Classic Wallaby fan negativity- talk down our achievements and opponents, talk up our failures. Eg. 'Sure, we beat Wales 3-0 and haven't lost to them in 8 starts, but they are a shadow of the team they once were', and 'yeah we beat the Springboks, but remember the loss to Scotland? Gah!'.
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[jay-c]

The Welsh side we played in the down under series was a shadow of the Welsh RWC side and this Six Nations was pretty abysmal all around.

that abysmal welsh side was the best welsh side to tour in 30 years
we made them look pedestrian, we dictated the tempo and despite a huge injury toll we sent them home 3-0
it wasnt running rugby, but give credit where its due... plus the arrogance the welsh approach our games with has been given a reality check considering the dominance weve had over them since robbie took charge

 

[Scotty]

The fact remains that they were a very good team before that series and they were the best team in Europe after that series.

Maybe everyone sucks except New Zealand?

The fact also remains that they were only average to good in that series and that we should have beaten them by more.

 

[Scotty]

People seem to think that these tests will be just like s 15 games and that, accordingly, we should be picking players who have performed well in s 15 but have yet to play a test.
I think it is inevitable that if you pick debutants, at least in 1st test, they will not all come up to the mark and it is something of a lottery as to which will fail and which will succeed.
Who is to know how Lilo will go in test rugby?
McCabe is a known quantity and he suits test match style rugby.
Folau is a special case because he has played at that level in another code.

What is test match style rugby?

 

[Inside Shoulder]

The negativity here is getting to me. Ultimately everyone is debating two, maybe three positions.

1. Fly Half. People want Cooper, and seem to think JOC (James O'Connor) (the likely candidate it seems) and Barnes are abhorrent, disgusting options. But I must remind you of a few things. Firstly, even if Deans DID pick Cooper (which he probably won't, but you never know) this doesn't turn us into a razzle-dazzle Harlem Globetrotter team. Cooper was 10 at the RWC. Cooper was 10 in tests last year where we struggled to score tries. He isn't the silver bullet here.

The converse is also true. JOC (James O'Connor) and Barnes aren't going to turn us into a stodgy, negative mess. With JOC (James O'Connor) at 10 the Rebels have scored about 12 tries in their last 3 games. Barnes has only played 10 at the Tahs for 10 minutes but set up a try in that time. The Reds with Cooper at 10 have been OK, but apart from the first half against the Sharks they haven't been scoring tries. I am not convinced the difference between Cooper, JOC (James O'Connor) and Barnes is that huge at 10.

I'd suggest it is more likely we see Barnes at fullback than at 10. And he is a pretty good fullback, certainly the best games at 15 last year came from him. His stability under the high ball will be a valuable asset.

2. Inside Centre. People are desperate for Lealiifano, and I'd think he would certainly be in the squad. If Deans picks Pat McCabe then it will be controversial, but what if he picks Rob Horne? Could many people argue with that selection? Both McCabe and Horne have proven chops at the international level, and Horne is just hitting form at the right time- he was huge in test match conditions on Saturday.

And again people assume that our whole style hinges on playing two playmakers, and if we don't we will be a negative mess. Again two things contradict that assertion- our worst game last year came with two playmakers (vs NZ away) and the most attacking Aussie side this season (the Tahs) don't play two playmakers. The Reds chalked up a great win with a basher at IC.

3. Fullback. I suppose this is related to fly half, so I will refer to what I said up there.

But if you step back and look at the big picture, everyone is more or less on the same page. The forward pack looks pretty good, with multiple options in each spot. And ultimately that is where this series will be won and lost. If they get go forward ball then JOC (James O'Connor), Barnes and Horne/McCabe are more than equipped to make things happen.

So in conclusion I am not as worried as the rest of you. Lighten up and crack a smile. Life is OK, and I expect the rugby in June to be OK as well.
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There is detail I would argue with but that's not the point: I think overall the position is neatly summed up in this post.

 

[fatprop]

He did well from a defensive point of view, but his propensity to kick away good counter attacking ball is appalling.

I see us kicking away a lot of "good counter attacking ball" throughout this series, we are going to play it tight and conservative.

I have seen no evidence since the RWC of anything else. We just don't counter from our own half. The other likely option is Mogg who will also kick shit out of it 99% of the time, just like he does each week.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

What is test match style rugby?

Its a style of rugby where the weak links have been eliminated or at least made less weak; where blokes generally have the fundamentals.
Ever wondered why, in the past, the Tahs had a pack that were dominant in the scrums but the Wobbs had a pack that was often decimated? Its because all the weak links in the NZ (SA) packs are removed when the Ab's/Boks are picked and the sum of their parts is greater than the sum of ours because their weak links have been removed.
Compare any test to Blues v Rebels from last weekend, in particular.
Tries are hard to come by.
Backline penetration the exception rather than the norm.
There's always one more bloke to beat after a break than there is in s 15 because, hell, the opponents are test players not a mixture of test players and blokes who will never play a test.
And the BIL are a combination of test players where, theoretically, the weaker players at test level have been weeded out.

 

[Jets]

1. Fly Half. People want Cooper, and seem to think JOC (James O'Connor) (the likely candidate it seems) and Barnes are abhorrent, disgusting options. But I must remind you of a few things. Firstly, even if Deans DID pick Cooper (which he probably won't, but you never know) this doesn't turn us into a razzle-dazzle Harlem Globetrotter team. Cooper was 10 at the RWC. Cooper was 10 in tests last year where we struggled to score tries. He isn't the silver bullet here.

The converse is also true. JOC (James O'Connor) and Barnes aren't going to turn us into a stodgy, negative mess. With JOC (James O'Connor) at 10 the Rebels have scored about 12 tries in their last 3 games. Barnes has only played 10 at the Tahs for 10 minutes but set up a try in that time. The Reds with Cooper at 10 have been OK, but apart from the first half against the Sharks they haven't been scoring tries. I am not convinced the difference between Cooper, JOC (James O'Connor) and Barnes is that huge at 10.

I'd suggest it is more likely we see Barnes at fullback than at 10. And he is a pretty good fullback, certainly the best games at 15 last year came from him. His stability under the high ball will be a valuable asset.

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I though it was made clear that this was a result of the "toxic environment".

 

[USARugger]

Classic Wallaby fan negativity- talk down our achievements and opponents, talk up our failures. Eg. 'Sure, we beat Wales 3-0 and haven't lost to them in 8 starts, but they are a shadow of the team they once were', and 'yeah we beat the Springboks, but remember the loss to Scotland? Gah!'.
.

Calling that Welsh team average isn't being negative, it's being true to reality. They were nowhere near as good as they were in the RWC and won the 6 Nations this year in what was effectivey a two-horse race. To top it off they played themselves out of the Australian series. Two of the games were lost by Wales and one was 'won' by Australia. Even just replace Priestland with literally anyone else with two legs and two arms and the Welsh win the series 2-1.

They were the 'best' Welsh side to tour because for a long while up until the past 7-8 years Wales were pretty horrible.

 

[Braveheart81]

Calling that Welsh team average isn't being negative, it's being true to reality. They were nowhere near as good as they were in the RWC and won the 6 Nations this year in what was effectivey a two-horse race. To top it off they played themselves out of the Australian series. Two of the games were lost by Wales and one was 'won' by Australia. Even just replace Priestland with literally anyone else with two legs and two arms and the Welsh win the series 2-1.

How good were they at the RWC though?

They played well against South Africa and lost narrowly. They beat Samoa in a close game on penalty goals.

They were really good against Ireland in the quarter final but Ireland didn't get up for that game like they did against the Wallabies.

They played well in the semi-final but ultimately killed the game for themselves by Warburton getting sent off.

We then beat them in the 3rd place playoff.

Again the rating system seems to favour losses against teams other than Australia. They were excellent at the RWC when they lost narrowly to South Africa, France and Australia but rubbish when they lost 3-0 in Australia.