Never have I been less certain of who is in the A-team
That's a good thing. It shows we have depth.
From Cheika:
Because we have been changing players around, there is a bit of a thought that we don't know who should be in the team.
But I can assure you that we have been working off a plan that we have had since we came back from the Spring tour and I'm sticking to that plan.
It's been something that is working for us. We have improved in our depth and in a lot of the areas that we needed to improve on.
We have still got improvement to make and we have still got time to make that improvement.
My prediction, based on selections thus far, and the things Cheika has said:
Sio
Moore
Kepu
Simmons
Douglas
Fardy
Hooper
Pocock
Phipps
Foley
Any one of Speight / Tomane / Horne / Mitchell
To'omua / Giteau
Kuridrani
AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
Folau
Slipper
Nau
Holmes
Skelton
McCalman / Palu
Genia
Giteau / To'omua
Beale
I have a feeling that Cheika intends to select Horne for defensive reasons. The Wobs are going to play Cheika's defensive system, in which the halfback sweeps and the 10/12 drops back as an extra fullback. Horne is perfect in that system because he's an excellent defender, both on the wing and in the line.
[It's been done to death whether this is hiding players or a deliberate system, with most of the arguments delivered in some kind of emotional baggage, but my money's on it being a deliberate system. I'm not saying that because I like Foley. My first choice flyhalf is an in-form Cooper, playing outside an in-form Genia.]
Personally I'd play Speight on one wing, because I like what he can do with ball in hand, but what do I know? It's a game theory question: can Speight score more tries by his better attack than Horne can prevent by his better defense? Thankfully neither Speight's defense nor Horne's attack are sub-standard, so it's not the Devil's dilemma. In fact Horne has matured into an excellent finishing winger, if not one with the outright gas of Speight or Tomane.
Why will Cheika pick Phipps? For the same reason he didn't pick White. Phipps is fast to the breakdown and passes directly out of the ruck when he has to. This undoubtedly results in errors, but also in an extremely fast-paced game that puts the opposition under extreme pressure. I have no doubt that's the game we intend to play over there.
It's certainly not The-Game-That-Wins-World-Cups.™ We appear to be adopting a high-risk strategy in several domains. This is partially because we suck at The-Game-That-Wins-World-Cups.™ To be blunt, neither are we The-Best-Team-In-The-Tournament™. Far from it. New Zealand is, by far, the best team. If we try to play England or New Zealand at The-Game-That-Wins-World-Cups.™ then we'll certainly lose. Therefore we
have to take risks. This is the best risk to take, because it's a calculated one that plays to our strengths.
I'd personally start To'omua, but Cheika may actually mean what he says about finishers, and want to up the tempo in the final 30 minutes of games, and To'omua has done very well in that role when he's come on, either at 10 or 12. So rather than being relegated to the bench, he'll be promoted to it as a key element in that strategy.
I doubt the Giteau backup 9 ploy will see the light of day in a world cup match.
While I'm chancing my arm with predictions, I predict we'll see this team against Fiji, as the final hit-up against England, and the B-team against Uruguay (including the A-team finishers starting). The only reason anyone will start against both Uruguay and England is if injuries force it to happen. England have an advantage with their perfectly spaced schedule. This strategy nullifies that.
My money's on Cheika, Grey, Larkham and Ledesma having thought this though in detail. We all love to hate coaches, but in terms of rugby smarts that's a fairly impressive group of tactical thinkers.
And for once, no one can accuse us of being soft.
Go Wallabies.
