Waratahs 2011 post mortem

[Groucho]

I fully expected the appologists to trot out the injuries excuse. The facts are that apart from three games this year, Rebels, Reds (Wk2) and Chiefs the Tahs were sadly lacking in skills execution. They played the risk averse game throughout which would have been fine if they displayed the defensive intensity they displayed in those three games I nominated. The big issue is that when the chips were down this year as in last year when the Tahs were required to play a more expansive attacking game they were unable to do so with any accuracy. It happened again last night, the forwards got parity and better than parity for long periods last night but there was no structure in attack. Nobody knew what to do with the ball in attack or counter except give it to KB (Kurtley Beale). When KB (Kurtley Beale) got smashed a few times or had a lack of support he reverted to the kick and hope (hope because the chase was average). The Tahs pigs were (apart from the Cheetahs) the best in the competition IMO, they provided consistant ball and dominated their opponents in many games and achieved parity where they did not. I said pre-season with the pending retirements and tranfers this was the Tahs best chance of a title, but I doubted with Hickey's coaching and game plan if they would do any better than last year. It seems to me to be a carbon copy.

To those who blame injury, just look at the Crusaders and Blues games early in the season, before the injuries they played abysmally and were never in those games until the last 20 of the Blues fixture. The medicrity of the result lies at the feet of the coaching staff and their inability to do more than just "meet" their KPIs.

Talking about injuries as a part of the analysis isn't being an apologist, gnostic. They aren't some kind of shibboleth that can't be mentioned.

 

[qwerty51]

How can injuries not be taken into account? You really think other teams would've done as well if they lost the same kind of players Gnostic? Rubbish. Take out the Reds equivalent and see what team they'd put on the park:

Saia Fainga'a, James Hanson, James Slipper, Greg Holmes, Scott Higginbotham, Radike Samo, Will Genia, Quade Cooper, Digby Ioane, Anthony Fainga'a, Mike Harris all gone.

 

[Swarley]

So what happened?
Were the injuries just plain bad luck? In some cases I'd say yes, but in others I am not so sure.

Was the squad just not good enough? I think the squad was remarkably good. Quite a number of 2nd and 3rd choice players showed themselves to be up to the task, and the first choice team could beat anyone.

Skills? Execution? Mental preparation? Game plans? Coaching? recruitment?

From my count, the Waratahs squad had 13 Wallabies. Not just Mark Bartholemuez type Wallabies, but recently capped internationals. These players were also in key positions:
#1 Robinson
#2 TPN
#3 Kepu
#5 Mumm
#7 Waugh
#8 Palu
#9 Burgess
#10 Barnes
#11 Mitchell
#12 Horne
#13 Cross
#14 Turner
#17 Baxter

There were also plenty of players who'd been on tour with the Wallabies or other international sides, had played Aus 7's, Australia 'A'/Australian Barbarians, or even U20's (formerly U21's/U19's):
#5 Dennis (Wallabies Spring Tour)
#6 McCutcheon (Aus 7's)
#16 Ulugia (Aus 'A')/Fitzpatrick (Aus U20's)
#18 O'Connor (Aus 7's, Spring Tour sqaud)/Douglas (Aus Barbarians)
#19 Mowen (Aus U19's)
#21 Kingston (Aus U20's)
#22 Anesi (All Blacks, 1 Test vs. Fiji 2005)/Pakalani (Tonga U20's) /Karauria-Henry (Wallabies Spring Tour training sqaud)

This doesn't even include players like Halangahu and Carter. So there's no problem with the squad. A mixture of experience and maturity as well as explosive, youthful players. Also, the majority of these players had been at the Waratahs set-up for a while, so they had a pretty good idea of how things worked in NSW. The skills were there. Barnes, Beale, Mitchell, Turner, Horne, Burgess make up the core of a world-class backline, complete with multiple kicking options, passing/ catching under the high ball, speed, finishing ability, tackling and defensive positioning. The only big change from last season was Cross, who had played at an international level with Barnes, Burgess, Turner and Mitchell before anyway. In the forwards, they had arguably the best front row in SupeRugby. Robinson, TPN and Kepu are almost flawless scrummaging, who all complete a lot of work around the park whilst maintaining strong set-pieces. Mumm and Dennis form a more-than-competent jumping duo, whilst adding extra impact as players with backrow experience. Palu, Waugh and McCutcheon complete a brutal, strong, fearless forward pack with impact in regards to playing ability and the all-important factor of Waugh's leadership.

So, no problem with the squad, recruitment or skills, so for me the problem lies in the coaching, mental preparation and game plans. Although I'm confident that Waugh and the other senior would have relentlessly instilled the importance of winning on the boys, I think he went around it the wrong way. Waugh's 'win ugly' mentality has proved costly for the 'Tahs not only in regards to crowd numbers, but also to results. Before his injury, Mitchell was regarded by many as the best finisher in world Rugby. Beale was nominated as one of the top 5 players in the world in 2010, and Turner was crowned 'Australia's fastest athlete'. Why then, is it that the ability of these players wasn't utilised to maximum capacity? Why is it that Waugh persisted with attrition-based tactics against the Reds for half an hour, coming away with a penalty and ultimately losing the game? I'm not surprised the 'Tahs suffered so many injuries. The forwards were used as battering rams, all game every game. Why then didn't Hickey step in? Anybody could realise that the backs had more than enough skill to deliver the killing blow to many sides.

Which finally leads me to my last point, squad rotation. Link had this one in the bag in QLD. Yes, people point out that it cost the Reds the Hurricanes game, and I agree. I knew before the game that the Reds would struggle with so many front line players on the bench. However, aside from one blunder squad rotation has been fine. Giving the subs like Robinson, Samo, Harris and Wallace-Harrison decent game time from the bench worked a treat, so much so that the former three earned a starting spot. For example, occasionally swapping Hanson and Fainga'a paid off really well. Giving players like Liam Gill, Greg Holmes, Jake Schatz and Ben Lucas game time in case of injury also paid off, providing them valuable elite experience, preparing for the unfortunate circumstance in which we had to start one of them in a semi-final having played minimal Rugby all year.

All in all, 'Tah fans should feel very disappointed, as this squad had an abundance of potential that was ultimately left unharnessed.

 

[Slim 293]

You can't just discount their injury problems though...

How many of those players have taken to the field regularly this year?

Or how many of those players were out at the same time?

 

[Swarley]

You can't just discount their injury problems though...

How many of those players have taken to the field regularly this year?

Or how many of those players were out at the same time?

I'm not discounting them, in fact I think the 'Tahs were the unluckiest team in terms of injury toll. But as I said before, I think the combination of extremely forward-dominated game structure and Hickey's reluctance to substitute players like Palu, TPN, Robinson and Kepu led to their some of their injuries. TPN's most recent one, however, was just an unlucky accident.

That being said, they also had tremendous depth in the squad- nobody can deny that. If Hickey had have exposed some of the fringe players a bit more, I'd imagine the situation would be less one of 'who do we pick?' and more like QLD's 'who do we leave out?'

 

[Hawko]

How can injuries not be taken into account? You really think other teams would've done as well if they lost the same kind of players Gnostic? Rubbish. Take out the Reds equivalent and see what team they'd put on the park:

Saia Fainga'a, James Hanson, James Slipper, Greg Holmes, Scott Higginbotham, Radike Samo, Will Genia, Quade Cooper, Digby Ioane, Anthony Fainga'a, Mike Harris all gone.

With the same level of injuries the Reds would likely not have coped nearly as well, as would not most of the Super squads. The Waratahs and Crusaders squads were probably the deepest squads in the comp. But luck played a real part too. Take the Sharks - they were missing just one first choice player for the finals. Stormers aren't missing many either and along with the Saders and Tahs have the most depth in their franchise. But criticism of the Tah squad that there are too many "journeyman" players is seriously misguided as Swarley's list points out unless you seriously believe that the Australian test squads of the past few years are filled with journeymen.

Criticism of Tahs squad depth is misguided. The season is marked by three effects:

1. How much the squad was disrupted by injury.
2. How much (or little) squad rotation impacted on the squad fitness.
3. What gameplans were adopted and maintained over the season.

The Tahs could have done seriously better this year if Hickey had really adopted a squad rotation policy this year and not played lip-service to it. At the end of last season he said he had learned this lesson, but that was just blowing smoke. One example of this is that the two back-up halfbacks had had so little playing time that when injury struck Burgo he didn't know who was better and ended up choosing the wrong one. In an eighteen game comp every back-up player should have started two games by round 12. In Cross's case it happened through injury in round 3, but other back-ups had to wait till a season-ending injury to get a start.

The other problem was Hickey's determination to use a conservative game plan. It meant that the required skills for an open running game were just not there when we found we had to do it. This could easily be the Stormers undoing next week when they play the Crusaders. If the Saders get some early tries the Stormers will not know how to open up and run it, because they have kept it conservative all year. I criticise the Tahs for being conservative, but they scored a hell of a lot more tries than the Stormers ever did.

Post mortem: Three things did us in - injuries, lack of squad rotation and conservative gameplan. One of those was due to bad luck, which we had in ridiculous proportions. The other two were bad coaching.

 

[DPK]

I think the gameplan issues were partly caused by the injuries to some extent too, Hawko. Other than that I agree with your post.

 

[light]

This post mortem is more detailed than Michael Jackson's, good to see that so many south of the boarder know where the Waratah's went wrong.

 

[louie]

Anyone remember a game this year (think it was the cheetahs) when Palu was coming back from injury? Instead of starting with lots of injury history from the bench he was in the run on side. I tihnk he might have been taken off after 20-30min. Sums up it all up for me.

Rotation is very important. This is something the Aussie teams haven't done enough of in my opinion. It doesn't just help injuries but also build depth.

 

[cyclopath]

This post mortem is more detailed than Michael Jackson's, good to see that so many south of the boarder know where the Waratah's went wrong.

I might be south of the Tweed, but never underneath a paying lodger, thanks, Light.

 

[cyclopath]

In all seriousness, it is all very well to opine that injuries happen to all teams, and squad rotation will largely get around that issue, but that really depends upon when the key injuries occur. People can like it or not, but each team only has so many "key" players, below whom the drop in ability of their replacement is too hard to replace.
So, if you lose very few really good players before you play, for example, the Rebels, or the Lions, or whoever you might get away with a nice little rotation. But what if you lose a few before you play the Crusaders, Reds, Stormers et al, and a few others you would prefer to rest are carrying a niggle or two, but you can't afford to play the "B" team, is that bad management, or bad timing?
The Waratah's key drop-off players would seem to be at 2, 8, 10, 11, 13 and 15.
For an example, and this is no invitation for further Reds /Tahs drivel, I would say the Reds key points of difference would be 5, 9, 10 and to a lesser degree 11.
Some losses are easier to "manage" than others.
But obviously, the reasons for the Tahs final placing are complex, and more than just injuries.

 

[Red Rooster]

I think squad rotation is bullshit to a large extent. If hickey had tried and the team lost he would have been drawn and quartered. Ewen did it in wellengton and it backfired but no one remembers that.

The injurys were luck, last week, Baxter got a concussion and TPN picked up a brand new injury by getting caught under a falling player, ad to this burgess breaking his hand at training and three players of experience are gone from the semi. It's hardly a planning issue is it? Drew mitchel broken ankle due to a freak accident caused by a grub, it's nit planning it's luck, it's a contact sport and injuries happen.

Ad on top barnes concussions and all of a sudden the tahs have had to use three different fly halfs and combinations suffer. Again, it's hardly a planning issue, it's the reality of contact sport.

The reds go into next week as favorites with there two best players at 9 and 10 barely missing a minute of match time, no surprise the reds have great combinations.

Ewen did it v the Stormers and it worked. if you look at the dubious decisions i the Canes game (fwd pass try, wrong TMO call and the no penalty at the end) then it could easily have been a win and it destroys your dismissive argument about rotation

 

[Red Rooster]

How can injuries not be taken into account? You really think other teams would've done as well if they lost the same kind of players Gnostic? Rubbish. Take out the Reds equivalent and see what team they'd put on the park:

Saia Fainga'a, James Hanson, James Slipper, Greg Holmes, Scott Higginbotham, Radike Samo, Will Genia, Quade Cooper, Digby Ioane, Anthony Fainga'a, Mike Harris all gone.

Well of the bunch you have named Slipper has missed 3 games and most of the Chiefs, Samo missed the first 4 weeks of the comp, Digby has missed 4 games, Anthony has missed 3 games, Harris has missed 6 games. Hynes has been unavailable since round 2, Tomiki the same. Rocket has missed 5 games, Lucas 6 games, Saia and Hanson have been rotated all season playing half games so their workload has been lessened. That leaves Genia and Cooper - testament to their staying power - they did the same last year and that was without Horwill and they also played the entire season last year without McClinden and Fetoa who both retired in the pre-season through injury - You can come up with all the spurious excuses but its what you do about it that counts - The Tahs talk about their injuries all the time, the Reds don't. You need to consider that the constant playing of obviously injured player like Tatafu, Waugh, Barnes etc does not develop your depth and increases you total injury count and perception of a injury problem when in fact they have never recovered properly - The real inquiry should be whether the decision to play this season bigger and heavier was a cause of some of the problems. you cant tell me if you carry around and extra 10kg when your body has not time to adjust that there wont be a problem along the way

 

[Red Rooster]

I thought it very odd that when Burgess was ruled out they then went and picked Holmes despite playing McKibbon on the bench throughout the season - if you want to see confusion amongst the playing group try explaining the logic of that for selection consistency

 

[Slim 293]

Ewen did it v the Stormers and it worked. if you look at the dubious decisions i the Canes game (fwd pass try, wrong TMO call and the no penalty at the end) then it could easily have been a win and it destroys your dismissive argument about rotation

But they lost the game... And there was nothing dubious about the penalty...

Cooper helped lose the game with his brainfart at the end...

 

[drewprint]

But they lost the game... And there was nothing dubious about the penalty...

Cooper helped lose the game with his brainfart at the end...

True, but to be fair I think our player rotation policy worked a lot better than your coach rotation policy.

 

[Gnostic]

My reference to appologists was not to discount injuries, but to highlight the fact that this factor will be used to disguise the failure of the management of what was the best squad in the Australian Conference. There can be no doubt that the Tahs have suffered a shcking run of injury. But as many others have said where was the management of those injured players, such as TPN and Barnes to ensure that their back-ups and the third stringers got some game time. For instance if Barnes had been rested when it was apparent to most that his issues were significant and Foley given some time of the bench then. McKibben had very little game time throughout th season as 2nd half back and Holmes zero only for the latter to be selected as run on in a final? Finally on the injury front The Crusaders have suffered the loss of most of their backline and their two best players AND haven't played a home game all year and still managed to stick to their patterns and the usual results flowed.

As Hawko said and I mentioned after the game against the Bulls, Hickey pushes conservative risk averse tactics all year until there is no choice but to play a more running game. The problem is that the players are not used to playing this and their skills have been show time and time again not to be up to it. This is a coaching failure.

The only thing I will say in defence of the Tahs is that no team in the history of Super Rugby has won the competition without a World Class 10. Even in the amateur era this was the case. The only World Class 10 in Oz is Cooper. I am not convinced of Beale at 10. He has played there on numerous occassions and against decent opposition have yet to see him control a team and set up his backline, as much as it chokes me to say it I think Giteau is a better 10 at this stage (and I hope, as I have for years, never to see him in 10 again).

 

[Gnostic]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...th-in-raw-talent/story-e6frg7o6-1226081606405

by Mark Ella:-

There is no doubt that moving forward the Waratahs have to eliminate this insipid and rather nasty culture but until the board of Waratahs Inc make some tough decisions nothing much will change in Australia's strongest rugby state, on paper anyway.

Holy shit, didn't somebody on GAGR suggest a major cultural shift and management change was required somewhere about week4?

 

[lincoln]

How about the fact that we played 3 non- Aussie finalists away?

 

[Slim 293]

True, but to be fair I think our player rotation policy worked a lot better than your coach rotation policy.

I don't know where the Brumbies' coaching staff fit into the discussion?

I'm certain this equates to trolling...