The vaccine is no given, it may happen, it may not. If the virus mutates, like the flu, it will only protect against the pre-mutation strains. As to herd immunity, at this point there is no evidence it can actually be achieved and if it can, how long it will last. Personally I think the most likely outcome will be effective treatment, which I think is a far higher probability then the other two.
As to the suggestion that we are going to have the same outcomes as the US etc as things get back to normal, I guess that's possible but at this point I would regard it as mere alarmist speculation, just like the eminent epidemiologists who were saying we would have 500,000 death two months ago.
I don't intend to get into the arguments about wages, again it belongs in a politics discussion where you guys can battle it out with Boyo.