COVID-19 Stuff Here

[Derpus]

We have gone from "flatten the curve" to “One case can cause an enormous setback to our plan to open up our communities.” (Dr Young, Queensland Chief Health Officer).
She wants to see up to a month of no additional cases in the southern states before restrictions are lifted.

Can you imagine, 12 months ago, that Queensland's economy would be shut down until zero cases of flu were recorded?
This massive over-reach by the cabal of unelected bureaucrats and power crazy politicians has to stop.

You really need to read a thing on separation of powers and the Westminster system of governance.

That said i actually agree with you. Eradication was never the aim.

 

[fatprop]

We have gone from "flatten the curve" to “One case can cause an enormous setback to our plan to open up our communities.” (Dr Young, Queensland Chief Health Officer).
She wants to see up to a month of no additional cases in the southern states before restrictions are lifted.

Can you imagine, 12 months ago, that Queensland's economy would be shut down until zero cases of flu were recorded?
This massive over-reach by the cabal of unelected bureaucrats and power crazy politicians has to stop.

And if the rest of the states move to the more reasonable flatten the curve and manage infection rate model, do they plan to stay closed forever?

 

[Ignoto]

We have gone from "flatten the curve" to “One case can cause an enormous setback to our plan to open up our communities.” (Dr Young, Queensland Chief Health Officer).
She wants to see up to a month of no additional cases in the southern states before restrictions are lifted.

Can you imagine, 12 months ago, that Queensland's economy would be shut down until zero cases of flu were recorded?
This massive over-reach by the cabal of unelected bureaucrats and power crazy politicians has to stop.

Well, considering that there's something like 385 active cases still in NSW, to our 12/13, why should we open ourselves up to you lot?

 

[formerflanker]

Well, considering that there's something like 385 active cases still in NSW, to our 12/13, why should we open ourselves up to you lot?

Because "we all in this together" .

 

[Ignoto]

Because "we all in this together" .

You're going to have to explain it to the rest of us, why it's necessary for us to have open borders a couple weeks earlier than you want. Is it a tourism thing?

 

[Up the Guts]

Well, considering that there's something like 385 active cases still in NSW, to our 12/13, why should we open ourselves up to you lot?

I imagine advice from the DCMO that there is no medical reason not to open the borders is based on factors such as active cases being imported and not from community transmission.

I guess the other question is, if we have a similar case load in NSW as we currently have in September are the borders still shut?

 

[Up the Guts]

Importantly, it's about the effectiveness of a lockdown after the pandemic has already got out of control.

"The work suggests that social distancing may be just as effective as home containment."

Of course it doesn't look at whether social distancing is achieved to anywhere near the same degree without actively enforcing it.

It discusses how the case rates are coming down prior to lockdowns (i.e. social distancing policies are working before active enforcement).

 

[Derpus]

You're going to have to explain it to the rest of us, why it's necessary for us to have open borders a couple weeks earlier than you want. Is it a tourism thing?

Economic reasons i guess.

 

[Derpus]

It discusses how the case rates are coming down prior to lockdowns (i.e. social distancing policies are working before active enforcement).

Some of the comments on the article seem to suggest that that was an incorrect assumption? anyway - peer review should tell us whether it's up to scratch.

 

[Ignoto]

I guess the other question is, if we have a similar case load in NSW as we currently have in September are the borders still shut?

Palaszczuk said guidelines are being reviewed and revised each month. Young said we could be open by July but its possible that we could be closed by September in a worst case scenario.

People wanting hard and fast deadlines in this are delusional and are much better off adopting the saying "Its better to under promise and over deliver than to over promise and under deliver".

 

[Ignoto]

Economic reasons i guess.

Freight is still coming in, FIFO to the mines are still going on, intrastate travel for tourism will be allowed soon, pubs and restaurants will be allowed to have more people at their venues gradually.

Sure we could have some extra tourists coming from interstate up here, but you lot would be better off supporting your local guys as most of us aren't traveling down south.

 

[Derpus]

Freight is still coming in, FIFO to the mines are still going on, intrastate travel for tourism will be allowed soon, pubs and restaurants will be allowed to have more people at their venues gradually.

Sure we could have some extra tourists coming from interstate up here, but you lot would be better off supporting your local guys as most of us aren't traveling down south.

Are you allowed to cross boarders to see family?

 

[Braveheart81]

It discusses how the case rates are coming down prior to lockdowns (i.e. social distancing policies are working before active enforcement).

It says the rate of growth was coming down, not that the number of new cases was decreasing.

Regardless, people are picking up so many obvious errors in the guy's paper that I'm not really sure it is worth discussing in any great detail.

 

[Ignoto]

Are you allowed to cross boarders to see family?

Yeap. Queenslanders have been allowed to travel interstate to see family but must self quarantine upon getting home. There also exemptions for those living and working between the QLD/NSW border.

 

[Up the Guts]

People wanting hard and fast deadlines in this are delusional and are much better off adopting the saying "Its better to under promise and over deliver than to over promise and under deliver".

The criticism isn't being levelled because of a lack of deadlines, it's being levelled for setting unrealistic thresholds that need to be met to justify border reopenings.

 

[fatprop]

Interesting interview
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/coronavirus-crisis-ron-desantis-florida-covid-19-strategy/

DeSantis and his team have followed the science closely from the beginning, which is why they forged a nuanced approach, but one that focused like a laser on the most vulnerable population, those in nursing homes.

....................... The media didn’t exactly have their eyes on the ball. “The day that the media had their first big freakout about Florida was March 15th,” DeSantis recalls, “which was, there were people on Clearwater Beach, and it was this big deal. That same day is when we signed the executive order to, one, ban visitation in the nursing homes, and two, ban the reintroduction of a COVID-positive patient back into a nursing home.”

DeSantis is bemused by the obsession with Florida’s beaches. When they opened in Jacksonville, it was a big national story, usually relayed with a dire tone. “Jacksonville has almost no COVID activity outside of a nursing-home context,” he says. “Their hospitalizations are down, ICU down since the beaches opened a month ago. And yet, nobody talks about it. It’s just like, ‘Okay, we just move on to the next target.

........................... His focus has been on “clinically significant cases,” or serious cases that might require hospitalizations, and that pointed to the nursing homes.


First, Protect the Nursing Homes

Here, Florida is indeed quite vulnerable. The state has roughly 350,000 residents and staff at more than 4,000 long-term-care facilities.
The state took precautions with its seniors generally. “We advised, before there was even mitigation,” DeSantis points out, “if you’re 65 and older, stay home as much as possible and avoid crowds. And that was just something that made sense.” The state talked to senior communities like The Villages about what they were doing to mitigate risk, and they took common-sense measures, such as stopping big indoor gatherings.
..................... Florida fortified the hospitals with PPE, too, but DeSantis realized that it wouldn’t do the hospitals any good if infection in the nursing homes ran out of control : “If I can send PPE to the nursing homes, and they can prevent an outbreak there, that’s going to do more to lower the burden on hospitals than me just sending them another 500,000 N95 masks.”

.................Most facilities haven’t had confirmed cases. “But the ones that have,” he says, “the majority of them have had between one and five infections. So the infections are identified, but then, you’re isolating either the individual or the small cluster before you have an outbreak.”
The state has just deployed a mobile testing lab in an RV that has a rapid test with results in an hour or two. It goes to a community and the staff goes to different long-term-care facilities. “If you’re talking about an asymptomatic carrier, if you can identify that person instead of waiting 48 hours for lab results to come back, I mean, that could be the difference between saving a lot of infections,” according to DeSantis.
................. Finally, it has established several COVID-19-only nursing homes, with a couple more in the pipeline. The idea, again, is to get COVID-19-positive residents out of the regular nursing homes to the maximum extent possible.

 

[Up the Guts]

Regardless, people are picking up so many obvious errors in the guy's paper that I'm not really sure it is worth discussing in any great detail.

Bit like Ferguson's bug ridden code. Anyway, it's a preprint, a lot of those errors will be netted out.

 

[Kenny Powers]

We have gone from "flatten the curve" to “One case can cause an enormous setback to our plan to open up our communities.” (Dr Young, Queensland Chief Health Officer).
She wants to see up to a month of no additional cases in the southern states before restrictions are lifted.

Can you imagine, 12 months ago, that Queensland's economy would be shut down until zero cases of flu were recorded?
This massive over-reach by the cabal of unelected bureaucrats and power crazy politicians has to stop.

FF (Folau Fainga'a) don’t try and understand Queenslanders or Queensland politics. All the crazies we have seen in Australia politics have come from Queensland when you think about it.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

FF (Folau Fainga'a) don’t try and understand Queenslanders or Queensland politics. All the crazies we have seen in Australia politics have come from Queensland when you think about it.

Haha, true!

More seriously, we appear to have a bit of a divide opening up between the different states. Based on the commentary above it appears here in WA we've gone hardest on the border closure issue and there is now a minor spat between the WA premier and NSW over reopening. We've also got virtual internal borders that I personally think can be pulled down. I also reckon that we should start looking at reopening the SA border and probably the NT as well.

There was this great big love in between the different levels of government at the start of the crisis and all the grand talk about a new cooperative governance paradigm. I think we're seeing that wear off a fair bit now! Can't say that I'm disappointed by that, because this idea of a super cabinet running the country and doing an end run around separation of powers doesn't sit well with me under normal circumstances.

 

[formerflanker]

You're going to have to explain it to the rest of us, why it's necessary for us to have open borders a couple weeks earlier than you want. Is it a tourism thing?

Two things.
The ongoing destruction of Queensland's economy in order to prevent the future loss of such a minimal number of lives is an over-reaction. We have come through the worst of the pandemic and it's time to relax all restrictions nationally.
Having all Australians pay for Qld economic recovery through Federal funding despite Qld shutting out all other Australians is not equitable. Federal bailouts (JobKeeper, JobSeeker) should be based on a national windback of lockouts, restrictions, border closures etc.