COVID-19 Stuff Here

[fatprop]

I'm not sure how you are figuring this. If the number of cases is kept low the chances of infection remain very low. It is quite likely that Australia's caseload will remain in a similar position for the foreseeable future.

We have hopefully got the caseload low enough that people can largely resume normal activities without the numbers exploding.

I don't really see any likelihood that current COVID-19 hotspots are going to become completely safe for the people living there or for other people to travel to.

So do we stick everyone in quarantine for two weeks before they can enjoy a visit or return?

How do we have touring rugby sides?

How do we have a tourist industry?


I just don't see us locking ourselves away from the world, it isn't viable or acceptable

But I do see it as a good motivator for those at risk to sort themselves out as much as they can and become less easy to kill.

 

[Up the Guts]

I'm not sure how you are figuring this. If the number of cases is kept low the chances of infection remain very low. It is quite likely that Australia's caseload will remain in a similar position for the foreseeable future.

We have hopefully got the caseload low enough that people can largely resume normal activities without the numbers exploding.

I don't really see any likelihood that current COVID-19 hotspots are going to become completely safe for the people living there or for other people to travel to.

I'm not referring to the speed of the spread. If we have infections spreading slowly relative to other countries, in the limit we still get the same % infected, this was the whole logic of flattening the curve. If you achieve local elimination and there is no treatment/vaccine forthcoming then there is going to be some politician in the very unenviable position of having to pull the pin on closed borders and letting the virus in.

 

[fatprop]

Probably because all the vulnerable people living there are already dead.

Nah, plenty more vulnerable out there

 

[Braveheart81]

So do we stick everyone in quarantine for two weeks before they can enjoy a visit or return?

How do we have touring rugby sides?

How do we have a tourist industry?


I just don't see us locking ourselves away from the world, it isn't viable or acceptable

But I do see it as a good motivator for those at risk to sort themselves out as much as they can and less easy to kill.

None of these things are going to happen for some time.

Largely they are going to be driven by the case rates in various countries and people's comfort level with the risks.

I think there is going to be negligible international tourism anywhere for the remainder of 2020.

I think Australia/NZ and the Pacific are likely to be among the first regions to open up tourism between each other later this year.

 

[Up the Guts]

I think Australia/NZ and the Pacific are likely to be among the first regions to open up tourism between each other later this year.

I say this with full knowledge that your reply will be "do you really think people will go there," but Italy is open to the EU in early June.

 

[Braveheart81]

I'm not referring to the speed of the spread. If we have infections spreading slowly relative to other countries, in the limit we still get the same % infected, this was the whole logic of flattening the curve. If you achieve local elimination and there is no treatment/vaccine forthcoming then there is going to be some politician in the very unenviable position of having to pull the pin on closed borders and letting the virus in.

I think we are effectively going to achieve local elimination. There will continue being cases but they are at low enough levels that we can keep R<1 and effectively contact trace and quarantine people.

I think international travel is going to look very different for a substantial amount of time to come. I don't think countries where there have been major outbreaks are suddenly going to become desirable tourism destinations just because they are allowing international travel without quarantine on arrival.

I don't think anyone really knows when and how this will all change but I don't think countries that have had major outbreaks are going to be at any advantage whatsoever.

 

[Aurelius]

Wage growth should be driven by productivity, not taxpayer-funded PS salaries. The latter just leads to a giant Ponzi bubble ready to burst.
That may happen soon, with 72% of Australian workers being paid by the private sector. Federal, state and local government employees plus current JobKeeper and JobSeeker numbers rely on 28% of the workforce plus other taxes. It's too big to sustain.
Rising Public Sector salaries are counter productive.

The tradeoff for the public sector was supposed to be that public servants would have perks like job security, wage rise guarantees and generous super arrangements which just aren't as widespread in the private sector. Our senior public servants are getting those perks and the big salaries. I guess they have a really great union.

That's not to say that they don't have complicated jobs, but I'd say they're getting paid well above what their equivalents are in similar countries.

And there's no way that being head of a government department or a senior advisor is as complicated as being head of a whole government.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Business have been offshoring to India and the Philippines in particular for years. Someone making that decision now really just means they were slow on the uptake. It's not some new phenomenon from working from home.

And while it might be quicker right now, the risk of some future disruption to the supply chain must be higher.

 

[Derpus]

The tradeoff for the public sector was supposed to be that public servants would have perks like job security, wage rise guarantees and generous super arrangements which just aren't as widespread in the private sector. Our senior public servants are getting those perks and the big salaries. I guess they have a really great union.

That's not to say that they don't have complicated jobs, but I'd say they're getting paid well above what their equivalents are in similar countries.

And there's no way that being head of a government department or a senior advisor is as complicated as being head of a I whole government.

I don't think this is a useful comparison. I personally don't care how any other country is run because i don't live there. The comparison should be made with what salaries talent can earn in the private sector here.

If we aren't attracting sufficient talent to run an effective government then salaries (or perks) should be increased to do so. Obviously, if we are paying over the odds then salaries should be reduced.

 

[Brumby Runner]

They have too many ventilators and are now giving away

Would those be the ventilators provided to the US by China?

 

[Brumby Runner]

None of these things are going to happen for some time.

Largely they are going to be driven by the case rates in various countries and people's comfort level with the risks.

I think there is going to be negligible international tourism anywhere for the remainder of 2020.

I think Australia/NZ and the Pacific are likely to be among the first regions to open up tourism between each other later this year.

Even then, I've seen a suggestion that travelers between NZ and Aus will need to go into quarantine for 14 days. Thjink it was in the SMH this morning.

 

[fatprop]

Would those be the ventilators provided to the US by China?

china doesn't "provide" anything (except infections) they sell stuff

 

[Up the Guts]

Interesting stuff here from a forthcoming article on the effectiveness of lockdowns:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1

In sum, no impact on the trajectory of the virus found in the countries analysed.

 

[Derpus]

Hasn't been peer-reviewed yet.

Regardless, it would have interesting implications for our understanding of virus transmission (or apparent lack of). And the obvious economic implications.

 

[fatprop]

Hasn't been peer-reviewed yet.

It also describes itself has phenomenal..

Regardless, it would have interesting implications for our understanding of virus transmission (or apparent lack of). And the obvious economic implications.

The US will be an interesting test case for multiple approaches. New York was a cluster f*ck, but when other states said well we ain't New York, there was lots suggesting gloom and doom that never happened

I think the lesson will be "it depends and it is complicated" and there isn't a universal model that should be implemented

 

[Derpus]

1.58 million cases is pretty gloomy, even as a percentage.

 

[Braveheart81]

Interesting stuff here from a forthcoming article on the effectiveness of lockdowns:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1

In sum, no impact on the trajectory of the virus found in the countries analysed.

Importantly, it's about the effectiveness of a lockdown after the pandemic has already got out of control.

"The work suggests that social distancing may be just as effective as home containment."

Of course it doesn't look at whether social distancing is achieved to anywhere near the same degree without actively enforcing it.

 

[Ignoto]

Interesting stuff here from a forthcoming article on the effectiveness of lockdowns:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1

In sum, no impact on the trajectory of the virus found in the countries analysed.

Why is a bloke who studies the oceans writing studies on infectious diseases?

Thomas A. J. Meunier - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Anyway, there's some good discussion about the merits of this under review paper on the COVID subreddit - https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/gbjghb/full_lockdown_policies_in_western_europe/

 

[fatprop]

1.58 million cases is pretty gloomy, even as a percentage.

We are all likely going to get this unless we stay locked down forever, which isn't a realistic option; so stay healthy, lose that weight if you have to, get fit and get some sun & fresh air

 

[formerflanker]

We have gone from "flatten the curve" to “One case can cause an enormous setback to our plan to open up our communities.” (Dr Young, Queensland Chief Health Officer).
She wants to see up to a month of no additional cases in the southern states before restrictions are lifted.

Can you imagine, 12 months ago, that Queensland's economy would be shut down until zero cases of flu were recorded?
This massive over-reach by the cabal of unelected bureaucrats and power crazy politicians has to stop.