Wallabies 2020

[Zero_Cool]

I think the way things stand we are a chance of beating the AB's and I think if we played/simulated 1000 games against the AB's O'Connor gives us the most wins out of those 1000 games. It's not like (or doesn't feel like) a few years ago where the only way we'd beat the AB's was by rolling the dice and hoping we'd roll a 12. Lolesio is a major unknown he could end up being a 6 but could also be a 2. O'Connor is probably a fairly safe 4 or 5. If we are using the dice analogy.

One thing I found quite interesting looking at the SRAU stats is Lolesio has a quite low usage rate compared to the others. O'Connor has the most with 35 Run/Pass's per game, while To'omua and Harrison have 23 each per game, but Lolesio has only 16 per game. Obviously the low sample size doesn't really help that, but it's quite interesting that perhaps there is something about how the Brumbies use him -- or perhaps those two regular season SRAu games happened to not give the Brumbies any ball.

 

[Derpus]

^^^
A major unknown? we have a whole year of form to go off. Many on here have been crying out for selections on form.

 

[Rebels3]

We could endlessly discuss the merits of who Wallabies best option at 10 is, but at the end of the day you want your best players on the park and O'Conner needs to be on the field in some form.

At the moment with not many standout fullback options in Australia, I think he could best suited at 15 for the Wallabies. I watched the Super Rugby AU final and the thing that impressed me most about JOC (James O'Connor) was his hands and courage under the high-ball under pressure. He took at least 5 snares that definitely weren't easy.

Our wing options are better than our fullback options, however one thing our wings are poor at is under the high ball. It’s almost certain to have Banks or DHP at back for this very reason. Otherwise you are asking for a kicking bombardment, which against the NZ wing options is bound to lose. I suspect they will play a similar style to the Reds with JOC (James O'Connor) spending a lot of time in the backfield and Banks/DHP covering a blind wing spot when teams are playing between the tram lines. Daugunu/Koroibete are quite good in the contact defensively so they will be happy to see them cover the width in a flatter capacity. The scrum half instead of sweeping deep will probably sit in the pocket behind the line in a shallow capacity to cover holes.

 

[Braveheart81]

One thing I found quite interesting looking at the SRAU stats is Lolesio has a quite low usage rate compared to the others. O'Connor has the most with 35 Run/Pass's per game, while To'omua and Harrison have 23 each per game, but Lolesio has only 16 per game. Obviously the low sample size doesn't really help that, but it's quite interesting that perhaps there is something about how the Brumbies use him -- or perhaps those two regular season SRAu games happened to not give the Brumbies any ball.

Lolesio came off injured after just over half an hour in one of those two games which across such a small sample size makes a big difference.

 

[Zero_Cool]

@Braveheart Yeah good point, I looked into it and in my data I found that his second game that he was injured in was the factor that dragged him down. While his usage (25) is still down against the very impressive 35 from O'Connor.

 

[Up the Guts]

Our wing options are better than our fullback options, however one thing our wings are poor at is under the high ball. It’s almost certain to have Banks or DHP at back for this very reason. Otherwise you are asking for a kicking bombardment, which against the NZ wing options is bound to lose. I suspect they will play a similar style to the Reds with JOC (James O'Connor) spending a lot of time in the backfield and Banks/DHP covering a blind wing spot when teams are playing between the tram lines. Daugunu/Koroibete are quite good in the contact defensively so they will be happy to see them cover the width in a flatter capacity. The scrum half instead of sweeping deep will probably sit in the pocket behind the line in a shallow capacity to cover holes.

Ramm is a dark horse if we expect a kicking bombardment. His boot is enormous and he offers more in attack than Hodge.

 

[Braveheart81]

While his usage (25) is still down against the very impressive 35 from O'Connor.

Is it impressive though?

In the Tahs vs Reds game where the Waratahs won 45-12, Harrison had 13 passes and 2 runs and O'Connor had 28 passes and 8 runs.

In the Reds vs Rebels game where the Reds won 19-3 but the Rebels had all the ball, Deegan had 44 passes and 10 runs (and was completely ineffectual).

I don't think it is a particularly meaningful stat. The only thing it perhaps indicates to me is that the Reds don't use anyone else at first receiver often in the backline and JOC (James O'Connor) likes carrying the ball more than most of our 10s.

 

[Rebels3]

Ramm is a dark horse if we expect a kicking bombardment. His boot is enormous and he offers more in attack than Hodge.

I think the issue for Rennie will be who can get up in the air and challenge the kiwi players in box kicks, etc. Koroibete for all he is great with the ball and in defense is horrible under a box kick.

 

[Zero_Cool]

Saw Koro and Dugunu playing AFL on SM... implications / speculations! Haha

Those cherry picked games are a bit dissentious. O'Connor against the Waratahs REALLY stood up and dragged the Reds back from the edge of the cliff. While the Rebs vs Reds wasn't down to Deegan. But over a number of games it'd be useful. Same as looking at penalty kicks from a single game where they kick 2 form 2 but both shots are right in front, isn't necessary useful but you look at a kicker over a season or a number of seasons. But I do agree on it's own it's pretty limited.

 

[Uh huh]

I think the issue for Rennie will be who can get up in the air and challenge the kiwi players in box kicks, etc. Koroibete for all he is great with the ball and in defense is horrible under a box kick.

He's absolutely prolific at chasing attacking kicks though and putting receivers under immense pressure. Swings and roundabouts?

 

[Rebels3]

He's absolutely prolific at chasing attacking kicks though and putting receivers under immense pressure. Swings and roundabouts?

The best in the game at it, Daugunu has great kick chase as well. They will compensate with a safe option at the back to defuse the kicks.

If JOC (James O'Connor) is going to be 10, kick chase will be a huge facet in the game as his kicking game is not the greatest. He’s not the worst kicker but it’s very much whack it down the field (asking for trouble against an AB counter attack) than hit the corners. Both Banks and DHP are solid kickers so another bow in their claim to be 15.

 

[wamberal]

DHP has to be 15. He is the safest option for the first game.

 

[Highkicks]

Agreed, while he might not be the most threatening he is very solid and the other options have been wildly inconsistent.

 

[wamberal]

He is proven at this level, not a star, but no slouch.

 

[Zero_Cool]

Daugunu and Koro would be a crazy pair of chasers! Even the most aimless of kicking would be great with those two chasing!

 

[rugboy]

DHP at the back with Koro and Wright/Ramm. Daugunu will be peppered under the high ball after his GF performance and both Ramm and Wright far more prolific kickers as well as passers. Then Daugunu Maddocks and Wright/Ramm later in RC against Argies or SA.

 

[TSR]

I get that he dropped a couple of balls in the final and that will make him a target - but to my memory he was good under the high ball for the rest of the season, wasn’t he? I don’t rememberer it being a problem through out the year and generally he seems to have great skills.

I like Wright, but personally I’d like to see Daugunu & Korioete get a crack.

 

[lpd]

We're talking about 3 tests in 2013 (and one forgotten one in 2011).

I'd suggest it's so long ago it's irrelevant.

As a side note, the Wallabies won two of those four games.

Tbf he was really good in the 2011 one!!!

 

[Zero_Cool]

Daugunu is very good under the high ball, I don't know where this crap about him being suspect under the high ball is coming from. He's a little bit short at 175 (5"9') but otherwise he's fine. But plenty of wingers aren't tall. Mind you, plenty of wingers aren't capable of having 3 pilfers in game either!

 

[Slim 293]

I wouldn't pair Koroibete and Daugunu on the wings, unless we're going to play run it back at all cost Cheika-ball, and we definitely should not.........