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NSW Election 2011

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The_Brown_Hornet

John Eales (66)
Yep, sure is. It probably seemed like a good idea back in FDR's time, but I believe that they have distorted the insurance market. Those big auto companies are basically big pension and health care funds that happen to occasionally make cars.

John Mackey of Whole Foods came up with some ideas to reform the system but was roundly booed by many people. I happen to think a lot of what he said made sense.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204251404574342170072865070.html
 

Rob42

John Solomon (38)
A lot of good points in that article TBH. You'd think deregulating and freeing up the market as he suggests would be just what Americans would love, but the political environment is so partisan and special interest lobbying so influential that all ideas get roundly booed, regardless of how sensible they might be.
 

Aussie D

Dick Tooth (41)
We're getting a bit off topic here guys it is the NSW election thread after all.. I am still not convinced that the Coalition will win as they need the biggest swing in NSW electoral history to do so. I am in a Labour seat and the local mayor assures me that it will fall to the Libs but after meeting their candidate and knowing the ferals that live around here I am in no way convinced. The next 2 and a half months will be very interesting.
 

kambah mick

Chris McKivat (8)
They're gone, ferals or no ferals. When a big swing to one side or the other is on many of the core supporters of the side the swing is against become more comitted supporters than usual and thus tend to drown out the noise of the swing to some extent, but when the election is held the swing takes place and to some extent surprises everyone with its size. The most famous example is probably the 1975 "dismissal" election where ALP diehards were very vocal and many were adamant that their side would prevail. Many conservatives were worried but when the results were in, it was a real landslide.
I think that Keneally has done a very good job since she took over as premier, but it is all too late. She should have taken over from Carr, but before he had been in too long. He seems to be escaping most of the blame for the situation the ALP is in but in my opinion he is probably more culpable than his sucessors as leader.
 

Aussie D

Dick Tooth (41)
Saw my first Labour campaign poster today and had to laugh. It was plain yellow, no photo and simply had the words "Keep David He get's things done" (our local member is David Harris) with a website down the bottom. No mention of Labour whatsoever.
 
C

chief

Guest
We're getting a bit off topic here guys it is the NSW election thread after all.. I am still not convinced that the Coalition will win as they need the biggest swing in NSW electoral history to do so. I am in a Labour seat and the local mayor assures me that it will fall to the Libs but after meeting their candidate and knowing the ferals that live around here I am in no way convinced. The next 2 and a half months will be very interesting.

It's pretty clear Labor will be annihilated. Labor will probably only grab around 20-30 seats. It's going to be embarrassing.

Is Keneally going to stay the Opposition leader? Or will Robertson take over?
 

Elfster

Dave Cowper (27)
Saw my first Labour campaign poster today and had to laugh. It was plain yellow, no photo and simply had the words "Keep David He get's things done" (our local member is David Harris) with a website down the bottom. No mention of Labour whatsoever.

It could be a strange election where the ALP does not appear to be running. Where their candidates try not to mention that they belong to the current government. Though there will probably be quite a lot of support from them via Union advertising/ campaigning and Get-Up will probably get in the act and start bagging the coalition.

I was thinking earlier that it may be a presidential style election, where the ALP pushes the leadership of the two leaders. Most probably KK holds an advantage there - though the whole electricity sell-off debacle has damaged her there.

I think it will be quite a nasty election never-the-less.
 

The_Brown_Hornet

John Eales (66)
I think the ALP brand is so damaged (as an outsider looking in) that its probably a survival tactic for each local ALP member. Hard to blame them for that.
 

Lindommer

Steve Williams (59)
Staff member
It's pretty clear Labor will be annihilated. Labor will probably only grab around 20-30 seats.

NSW Labor will be very, very lucky to get 20 seats in the March election. It's going to be a slaughter, and rightly so. The carpetbaggers of the NSW Right have performed disgracefully the last 30 or so years. Their selfish and greedy actions have left NSW in a bloody mess.
 

Aussie D

Dick Tooth (41)
This election campaign has been so underwhelming it is frightening. The media seem to be ignoring Barry O and following KK around. Is it just me or is she doing things differently than a male leader running for office? The images I have seen of her she is serving food at bbq's or doing the rounds with her colleagues chasing votes in safe seats (I know male leaders do that as well but with her it seems to be more of a photo op than anything else) not forgeting the Labour Party's TV ad of her sitting in the living room, not to mention the 'puff' piece in last week's Daily Tele. The Red Terror hasn't done her any favours by dropping the Carbon Tax onto the people of this country in the middle of this campaign either. The most interest seems to revolve around two inner Sydney seats where the Greens are trying to oust two sitting Labour members. I guess I would just like to see some investigation into policy and plans of the 3 major parties more than anything else. Oh, the other biggish news is that Pauline Hanson has come out of retirement and is running for the Legislative Council on an Upper Hunter ticket. Some people never learn.
 
C

chief

Guest
This is going to be so brutal for the ALP. I feel so sorry for Kristina Keneally, a good politician until she lacked judgement and made the electricity sell off more so the parliamentary inquiry.

Not even I can defend them here. They deserve to lose, and lose big.

But one person who I cannot but wonder who will benefit from this is John Robertson. Under Robertson's leadership he opposed the privitisation which lead this government to shambles. Right now Morris Iemma could very well still be Premier, leading Labor to modest election loss had that Union hack not done what he did.

Personally Robertson should bow his head in shame, and I really hope Robertson doesn't win Blacktown. Because he doesn't deserve it.

I give credit to KK waking up every morning to the last few days of her Premiership and leading the party to it's inevitable defeat, one must wonder whether the ALP would have done better with the advertising campaign of "We know we've lost it big, but don't make the Coalition unaccountable."

Will be interesting to see O'Farrell's first few years in parliament, he doesn't need to worry about re-election until 2019 at least so he can pretty much do what he wants to do. We will definitely see Public Service cuts, one must wonder how many he will cut. With Max Moore-Wilton lurching about people are hinting at 30,000 but that's just speculation (no truth to it).

Will be a very interesting year. Mike Baird also looks pretty classy (surprised he isn't Federal)
 

Lindommer

Steve Williams (59)
Staff member
Delightful article in The Australian today:

Who's in bed with Kristina Keneally?

TWO female advisers walk into a bar. One's working on her first state election campaign. The other is an experienced hand, who does all the talking and most of the drinking.

"This place opened a few weeks ago. I think it used to be a bike shop. Let's drink to Clover. That barman reminds me of Michael Coutts-Trotter, the director-general of education. He worked for Michael Egan, who was treasurer when Bob Carr was premier. I remember Michael from uni when he was a mature-age student at UTS. Totally hot, just like the tutors. Turned his life around. He's married to Tanya Plibersek, federal Minister for Human Services and Social Inclusion, who did journalism at UTS like me and half the hacks in the gallery. They've got three kids. Gorgeous. Tanya should be in cabinet. You should be taking notes.

Keep the history alive because there won't be many in our show after Fatty's big day out. Have you heard O'Barrell speak? Kristina's smashed him in every forum. Anyway, Tanya was close to Anthony Albanese, the federal minister for trucks and hard hats. Albo's married to Carmel Tebbutt. Can you believe the Deputy Premier is about to be ditched in the People's Republic of Marrickville? She's down to earth and has worked her guts out in health. Carmel followed John Della Bosca in that hospital-pass portfolio. He came after Reba Meagher, who was once Joe Tripodi's fiancee. They were in Young Labor when I was still at school. I wonder what Joe's going to do next. He's only 43. Reba's a single mum now. She was married to Tim Gleason, who did media for Bob Carr, Nathan Rees and Kevin Rudd. He deserves an AO.

Guess what? Carmel went to the same De La Salle School in Cronulla as Della, the alma mater of Michael Lee, NSW ALP president who was a minister when Paul Keating was PM. Anyway, his brother John Lee, the key man at the Tourism and Transport Forum, was director-general of the premier's department when Rees became premier in 2008. They were bloody hard days. I should write a book about it. Confessions of a Party Girl! DLS Cronulla is a Labor factory, even though it's in The Shire. Tony Sheldon, national secretary of the Transport Workers Union (who's married to NSW ALP vice-president Sarah Kaine), went there, as did Steve Hutchins, who didn't get up from the No.3 Senate spot last August. Gone. He was once married to Diane Beamer, the retiring member for Mulgoa, but Hutch is now hitched to Natalie Sykes, who won the Victorian seat of Keilor last year. Another Cronulla old boy is Michael Forshaw, who is retiring in June after he got demoted on the Senate ticket to make way in Canberra for former NSW party boss Matt Thistlethwaite. Matt's successor is Sam Dastyari, the guy running the campaign, not much older than you, actually. KK called him a fool after he said Bazza O'Fazza was going to win this thing big. Hello. Read the memo. Like backroom Sam's ever going to speak without getting the green light? He's married to Helen, the daughter of Peter Barron, who worked for Bob Hawke when he was PM and he is a close mate of Graham Richardson. You know Richo, from Sky? Everyone knows Richo. He took Della under his wing at Sussex Street. Della is married to Belinda Neal, who lost preselection for Robertson after that meltdown at Iguanas night spot a few years ago. Then Kevin747, of all people, made her take anger-management lessons. I love those ironies, it keeps me centred.

When Della left the upper house, his spot was taken by Sophie Cotsis, who used to work for Michael Costa. Did you see that piece he wrote in the Oz last year? What a rat. Are you following all this? Stop me if I ramble. Costa used to write some out-there stuff when he was at the Labor Council with Mark Duffy, who also worked for Egan. Bonsai economy. The HR Nicholls crowd loved it. We used to denounce them at Young Labor, pass all these motions of condemnation. Duffy married Seija Wolk, who worked for Costa, and is now deputy DG of minerals and energy. Pretty much a pointy-head bureaucrat these days. Costa is just mad. I reckon by Monday Costa and Morris Iemma will be taking the nuclear option. Cassandra Wilkinson also worked for Costa and is one of Kristina's senior advisers. You know Paul McLeay who resigned from the ministry last year after an audit found he'd been visiting porn sites on his work computer, that's Cassandra's husband. Paul's father was the federal speaker in the house of reps, they used to call him "Leaping Leo".

Costa's office, like Egan's in his day, was like a transit lounge for all sorts of people. I was only a junior staffer when he was transport minister. Later on Kelli Field, married to Mark Arbib, was Costa's chief of staff when he was treasurer. So was John Whelan, who also worked for Carr and Kim Beazley and ended up as a policy guru for both the Ruddster and Julia Gillard. There's another John Whelan as well, the two are cousins. I pashed one once but can't remember which one. That stays in the cone of gossip, okay? The second one worked for Egan and Grant McBride and is the son of the former police minister Paul Whelan. He was also a bureaucrat in the office of booze, pokies and punts and is now the guy in charge of responsible gambling at the Australian Hotels Association.

Speaking of gambling, have you seen the latest odds? I'm with Richo. I'll bet you a bottle of Veuve we get fewer than 15 seats. If he wants it, John Robertson will be opposition leader. I saw Robbo in his cossies at the pool once. A sparky. Looks and sounds like a Labor man from the 60s. A lot of people can't stand him, especially after he killed off the power sale that ended the careers of Iemma and Costa. Robbo might not even win Blacktown. Paul Gibson, the guy they shafted in that seat, says it's going to be a bloodbath on Saturday. Gibbo used to be on with Katherine Specking, who was married to Phil Koperberg, who is retiring as well. Bad blood there.
Gibbo's former partner was Sandra Nori and she used to be married to John Faulkner. Ever heard Captain Specs sing? Great voice, nice man. When Robbo entered parly, Keating sent him a letter saying he was ashamed to share membership of the same party. Those old blokes hate with a passion that's missing these days. I reckon Twitter, Facebook and blogs take the heat out. You know the lobbyist Katherine Keating, PJK's daughter, she used to work for Craig Knowles when he was planning minister and Tony Burke, who was with the Shoppies when I first met him, appointed Knowles to be the new chair of the Murray Darling Basin Authority. Here's a tip, stay away from water. It always ends in tears.

Shhould we get another bottle? How about a Clare Shiraz? You know Jason Clare? Coming man as the great E.G. Whitlam used to say. He's got Keating's old seat of Blaxland and is now the Minister for Defence Materiel. Big dollars. His ex-partner is Davina Langton. I think she's worked for every premier since Carr, been around even longer than I have. She worked for Joel Fitzgibbon in Canberra. Joel's a laugh. My brother once had a job with him. Davina's dad is Brian Langton, the chair of Sydney Ferries. He was the transport minister who resigned after the Independent Commission Against Corruption found he had rorted charter flight expenses. He went to Marist Brothers Kogarah, another hatchery for Labor. Gaming Minister Kevin Greene went there and so did Richo. One day, I reckon Loreto or Santa girls will rule this town. We live in hope.

How about Karl Bitar? Gone-ski. But Karl and Arbib got Iemma home in 2007 and everyone said then they were geniuses. Karl's wife is Joanna Woods. She's worked for the party for years and was number four on the Senate ticket in 2004. Her father Harry Woods was a federal MP (Moana Pasifika) and a minister in the Carr government.

So you said you were related to the Fergusons. Who isn't? Andrew could be a real star in the upper house but No.6 on the ticket is wicked. Paul Lynch is probably going to have four or five portfolios in opposition. Lynda Voltz has to be in the mix for the ministry. What do you call Martin and Laurie, uncle or comrade?

I haven't got anything lined up in Canberra, but I know lots of people there. Maybe park myself at Hawker Britton. When Kevin07 was elected, he treated NSW staffers like we had the plague. But he burned advisers out and so many people have moved on after the election. Unlike Kevin! Lots of Victorians are going federal now. This didn't come from me, but I reckon this is a good election for us to lose. I need a rest. I've worked for four different ministers and I'll get a six-figure redundancy when the Bazookas take over. Might even run in 2015 for my dad's old seat, which the Libs will probably win because of the bloody independent. But never again, girlfriend.

So many women are leaving at this election. You know Tripodi's sister-in-law Angela D'Amore in Drummoyne? Lost a lot of weight. She was disendorsed after the ICAC finding. And Tanya Gadiel in Parramatta is stepping down for family reasons. She used to be married to Michael Gadiel from Unions NSW, brother of Aaron who runs the Urban Taskforce lobby for developers. Did I mention Beamer? Okay, Marie Andrews, Lylea McMahon and Alison Megarrity are stepping down as well. Tourism Minister Jodi McKay, best shoes in parly, looks gone for all money in Newcastle and Cherie Burton is fighting for her life in Kogarah.

Richo says we have to get used to losing and that the rot set in from week one of this term. The big losses will be Carmel and Verity Firth. She's full of beans and good for morale, like her aunty Meredith Burgmann, who used to be president of the upper house. She's the one who gives out the "Ernie" awards for atrocities against the sisterhood. Most of them from our side! Verity has had a hard run. First, all that school building crap and then her husband Matthew Chesher, who worked for the Roads Minister David Borger, got arrested buying "e" in Glebe. Talk about a bitch of a year. These jobs are like dog years. I feel 60. But, she said, taking another gulp, we make our own choishes love.

Speaking of ageing and volunteering, you know Peter Primrose's press sec Patrick Keneally? His brother Ben was Iemma's deputy chief of staff. They're nephews of Thomas Keneally. He wrote Schindler's Ark. Or was it Schindler's List? I can never remember whish one. Major Labor famiglia. And guess who Ben's sleeping with, my sister from another mister? KK, our fearless leader, the premier. Go girlfriend!

I need a ciggie. So are you seeing anyone?"

If it wasn't so funny it'd be tragic. I was laughing/crying so much I should've said: "If it wasn't so tragic it'd be funny." AND IT'S ALL TRUE! The author even managed to miss the pere et fils chapters of the Fitzgibbons and McClellands. The incest and nepotism of the Labor Party in New South Wales has been utterly, utterly disgraceful. Which is a damned shame for our society as we need healthy political institutions. 20 years isn't going to be enough to rebuild Labor into a credible force in this state, every official who's got their spot due to some sort of political patronage has to be ditched to enable the party to rebuild. And how they're going to do that with the dead hand of the union movement resting on their shoulder I don't know.
 

matty_k

Peter Johnson (47)
Staff member
I just have this feeling that we'll get at least one more term from Labor. It will be close but the swing just wont be big enough.
 

cyclopath

George Smith (75)
Staff member
I just have this feeling that we'll get at least one more term from Labor. It will be close but the swing just wont be big enough.

If the people of NSW re-elect the NSW Labor Party then sanity has left for good. Blandy O'Farrell does not inspire much, but there is just no way we can have this cruel joke that is NSW Labor for another day, let alone a term. They stink.
 

Lindommer

Steve Williams (59)
Staff member
matty, matty, you'd better have a Bex and a good lie down. Make that a bucket of Bex.

I live in the Penrith electorate, which was won by the Libs in a by-election last year with a swing of 26.5% OK, the sitting Labor member was proved to be a crook but there are legions of incompetent Labor members across New South Wales who've deserted their sinking ship and left their successors to cop swings something like the outgoing Labor member in Penrith.

I've revised my prediction and now reckon Labor will be lucky to get 15 seats.
 
C

chief

Guest
It is seriously impossible that NSW Labor will be reelected. From what I've heard there seemed to have been a handful of quality ministers (that police minister, Verity Firth, and Carmel Tebutt) and it's a shame because the three people that probably deserve to be reelected will lose their seats, Tebutt and Firth to the Greens and Daley (I think) to the Liberals.
 

The_Brown_Hornet

John Eales (66)
Surely nobody in NSW would reelect the current government, with the truly staggering amounts of scandal that have played out in the last few years.
 

bryce

Darby Loudon (17)
Whenever there is a state election I often have two somewhat contradictory thoughts. The first is to abolish the states, and divide the states' powers between local and federal government. The second is, if we are to keep the states, make Sydney and the rest of NSW separate states. NSW politics is usually about Sydney and nothing else.

I think there is a case for abolishing the states. For a country of our size we do seem to have plenty of government. And I don't mean that in the 'anti-government conservative' sense. I just question whether we need this many levels of government to administer a country with a population of 20 million.

On the other topic, NSW state politics (when there isn't some scandal going on where an MP (Moana Pasifika) is forced to quit or go to jail) seems to be about who has a better idea for the next tunnel or expressway in Sydney, who is going to make Sydney trains run on time, or who is going to keep George Street safe on a Saturday night. I don't get the impression that they think too much about regional NSW. Let Sydney run Sydney, and let the rest of NSW look after itself.

Just thought I'd throw it out there. Any thoughts?
 
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