NSW Election 2011

Though it is generally thought as a done deal, and Labor will be "swept" from office next March and almost be turned into the 3rd party in NSW, I am beginnng to have doubts.

It may be something totally wrong, but I don't think a Labour victory (or a small loss.which will be written and seen as the same by some commentators) is totally implausible.

My reasons:

a) The NSW Libs have taken a very quiet approach.assuming that the victory is theirs. They seem a little too smug and lazy.

b) Labor through various sympathetic acolytes in the media are presenting the Liberals as a policy free zone and full of rightwing religious nutters.

c) The NSW Liberal party administration seems to be lazy, inept or totally distracted.

d) The finances of Labor (due in part to the recent political donation legislation) have far more money and willhave the Unions and Get-Up campaigning for them.

e) I don't think some of the Federal Liberals are that popular in NSW. However they won't see that and the antics of Abbot and Co in parliament are a little too negative.

f) The NSW Labor party will probably get good press from the traditional Sydney silly season and people will forget what they are really like.

g) Voter imbalance in NSW.there is a natural Labor gerrymander in NSW.

h) Support from the Federal government to retain the jewel in the crown of state governments.

i) The recent resignations in Labor wil be portrayed as a rejuvenation and the Labor will be presented as a new party in these elections.

My thoughts, but I just fear that come next year the required clean-out in NSW may not happen. Not that the Liberals will be overwhelmingly better, but something needs to be done in NSW.

Elfster I have been saying the same thing for months. Labour should have been gone at least 2 elections ago but have continually hung on. In the middle of the last election campaign a train broke down on the middle of the harbour bridge for four (?) hours and they still one. The NSW Liberal party heirarchy is pathetic when it comes to running an election campaign (just look at their effort in the recent Federal election).

One thin I will say though regarding the Libs failure to release any policies is that they would be worried that Labour steal them or run a fear campaign against them. I think last time Labour claimed the libs were going to cut frontline staff in hospitals when I think it was bureaucracy that was in line for getting staff cuts.

The Liberal Party in NSW is swimming in money, big business has got behind them in a big way. Labor are going to get massacred next year, the voters are biding their time with baseball bats. The leadership of the Liberal Party are keeping quiet and letting Labor continue to put their feet in their mouth. The sight of long-standing Labor parliamentarians deserting a sinking ship mustn't fill voters with much confidence.

I still think it will be a bloodbath. The amount of people leaving Labor will hurt them (although, the loss of Tripodi will be a huge gain, as will be the loss of Obeid if he is pushed as well).

Liberals, though, will probably play it badly as Elfster and Aussie D says. Some of the policies they are already coming out with aren't very good - in fact, they plan on repealing some of the few good things done by Labor (and there's not many of them!). Some stupidity from the Liberals - trying to block the banning of donations from big tobacco, trying to buy the Hotels Association by repealing the name & shame lists and other punishments for violent venues. Don't forget: the Liberals have prior form on losing unlosable elections - the nutjob Liberal far right stabbed the moderate Brogden in the back (by reporting Brogden's extremely inappropriate comments at a private party function to the press and then forcing his resignation), and then sticking in a far right puppet Debnam. Not only that, they ran one of the worst campaigns in history, losing to an incompetent Labor government who basically said "we fucked up, but we're starting to turn it around and we'll do better next time", which people knew to be rubbish.

I still think it'll be a Liberal win and a bloodbath, but just not as big a bloodbath as it should be.

BTW, anyone else here that can't stand Keneally's voice?

Here's a brief list of Labor's woes, in roughly chronological order from 2008:
Around 14 Labor MPs resigned or resigning next election in the past year
Twice changing of premier (Iemma -> Rees, Rees -> Keneally) by Labor numbers men
Wollongong corruption scandal, referred to ICAC
Orkopoulos convicted of paedophilia, with the whistle blowing staffer sacked
McGurk tape claiming to have evidence of corrupt Labor politicians
Ian West charged for assaulting a property developer
Karyn Paluzzano scandal - lying to ICAC, falsifying pay forms
Ian "Sir Lunchalot" Macdonald multiple scandals, including taxpayer funded trip to Dubai, free updrades not declared, making favourable decisions to friends
Joe Tripodi referred to ICAC, multiple times, including favours for friends claims
Paul McLeay caught surfing the web for porn (resigned from cabinet)
David Campbell caught in sauna, resigns (although this shouldn't have been an issue, but the guy was incompetent and should've been sacked for his multiple past failings)
Angela D'Amore investigated by ICAC

I like it better than Gillards. I mean how can a Welsh born, Adelaide raised person speak like such a bogan. It is beyond all logic.

And on topic, if Labor don't get smashed in NSW (like it should have happened the previous election), then I think we can assume that New South Welshman are without doubt the stupidest in the country. Even if the Liberals don't put up a credible alternative, you can't possibly imagine people voting for Labor just based on the amount of corruption and dodgy behaviour that takes place in their ranks.

Sounds like an ordinary day on Macquarie St.

And there you have it.

I believe Labor are gonna run with the slogan "come on, just one more time, i promise we'll be good"

I believe the Liberals are running with "well, we aren't Labor and we haven't done anything bad..yet"

Both parties right now should be focused on smart urban planning and infrastructure development, not really a need for a focus on much else, especially considering health and education are basically going to the federal government. If we' where to have a a proper and correctly run train network (see below) based around common sense, the christie report, various metros proposed and the herald public inquiry, be developed in the next ten years, with proper foresight for the future (see lines to the southwest and northwest), that government would be classed in the same vein as a lesser macquarie. Its What NSW needs. of course in order to reduce on going costs they should also develop a CBD MagLev.

Moses; yeah, I'm sure that I missed quite a bit. The Lane Cove tunnel and Cross City tunnels were debacles. You'd think all the Liberals would need to do is run an ad with all the crap Labor have screwed up running down the screen, Star Wars style.

The complete shelving of the Christie plan is one of the all time great NSW fuckups.

Not sure what you mean, stoff, but in my experience people raised in Adelaide have the most 'proper' accent of any Australians.

Probably depends on who you were talking to. I know some that I met on school sporting exchanges have been shockers. Admittedly others did have almost a british quality to their accents.

all the south australians ive heard have had refined australian accents, i put it mostly down to the german community.

Depends on where you go in Adelaide. Places like Norwood and Glenelg all have posh accents but Elizebeth and Norlunga have some of the roughest in Australia.

If you want a shocking voice from SA, look no further than Christopher Pyne. Half posh and the other half like his balls haven't yet dropped. Alexander Downer is not far behind him though.

Perhaps the most corrupt government outside of Africa. It wouldn't surprise me if they win - NSW voters are cretins. If Labor don't get kicked out, I'm going postal.

Probably a lot more to do with their voices than their accents though.