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NSW Election 2011

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Elfster, Nov 23, 2010.

  1. Elfster Bob Loudon (25)

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    Though it is generally thought as a done deal, and Labor will be "swept" from office next March and almost be turned into the 3rd party in NSW, I am beginnng to have doubts.

    It may be something totally wrong, but I don't think a Labour victory (or a small loss.which will be written and seen as the same by some commentators) is totally implausible.

    My reasons:

    a) The NSW Libs have taken a very quiet approach.assuming that the victory is theirs. They seem a little too smug and lazy.

    b) Labor through various sympathetic acolytes in the media are presenting the Liberals as a policy free zone and full of rightwing religious nutters.

    c) The NSW Liberal party administration seems to be lazy, inept or totally distracted.

    d) The finances of Labor (due in part to the recent political donation legislation) have far more money and willhave the Unions and Get-Up campaigning for them.

    e) I don't think some of the Federal Liberals are that popular in NSW. However they won't see that and the antics of Abbot and Co in parliament are a little too negative.

    f) The NSW Labor party will probably get good press from the traditional Sydney silly season and people will forget what they are really like.

    g) Voter imbalance in NSW.there is a natural Labor gerrymander in NSW.

    h) Support from the Federal government to retain the jewel in the crown of state governments.

    i) The recent resignations in Labor wil be portrayed as a rejuvenation and the Labor will be presented as a new party in these elections.

    My thoughts, but I just fear that come next year the required clean-out in NSW may not happen. Not that the Liberals will be overwhelmingly better, but something needs to be done in NSW.
  2. Aussie D Arch Winning (36)

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    Elfster I have been saying the same thing for months. Labour should have been gone at least 2 elections ago but have continually hung on. In the middle of the last election campaign a train broke down on the middle of the harbour bridge for four (?) hours and they still one. The NSW Liberal party heirarchy is pathetic when it comes to running an election campaign (just look at their effort in the recent Federal election).

    One thin I will say though regarding the Libs failure to release any policies is that they would be worried that Labour steal them or run a fear campaign against them. I think last time Labour claimed the libs were going to cut frontline staff in hospitals when I think it was bureaucracy that was in line for getting staff cuts.
  3. Lindommer Peter Sullivan (51)

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    The Liberal Party in NSW is swimming in money, big business has got behind them in a big way. Labor are going to get massacred next year, the voters are biding their time with baseball bats. The leadership of the Liberal Party are keeping quiet and letting Labor continue to put their feet in their mouth. The sight of long-standing Labor parliamentarians deserting a sinking ship mustn't fill voters with much confidence.
  4. Ash Mark Ella (57)

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    I still think it will be a bloodbath. The amount of people leaving Labor will hurt them (although, the loss of Tripodi will be a huge gain, as will be the loss of Obeid if he is pushed as well).

    Liberals, though, will probably play it badly as Elfster and Aussie D says. Some of the policies they are already coming out with aren't very good - in fact, they plan on repealing some of the few good things done by Labor (and there's not many of them!). Some stupidity from the Liberals - trying to block the banning of donations from big tobacco, trying to buy the Hotels Association by repealing the name & shame lists and other punishments for violent venues. Don't forget: the Liberals have prior form on losing unlosable elections - the nutjob Liberal far right stabbed the moderate Brogden in the back (by reporting Brogden's extremely inappropriate comments at a private party function to the press and then forcing his resignation), and then sticking in a far right puppet Debnam. Not only that, they ran one of the worst campaigns in history, losing to an incompetent Labor government who basically said "we fucked up, but we're starting to turn it around and we'll do better next time", which people knew to be rubbish.

    I still think it'll be a Liberal win and a bloodbath, but just not as big a bloodbath as it should be.

    BTW, anyone else here that can't stand Keneally's voice?

    Here's a brief list of Labor's woes, in roughly chronological order from 2008:
    Around 14 Labor MPs resigned or resigning next election in the past year
    Twice changing of premier (Iemma -> Rees, Rees -> Keneally) by Labor numbers men
    Wollongong corruption scandal, referred to ICAC
    Orkopoulos convicted of paedophilia, with the whistle blowing staffer sacked
    McGurk tape claiming to have evidence of corrupt Labor politicians
    Ian West charged for assaulting a property developer
    Karyn Paluzzano scandal - lying to ICAC, falsifying pay forms
    Ian "Sir Lunchalot" Macdonald multiple scandals, including taxpayer funded trip to Dubai, free updrades not declared, making favourable decisions to friends
    Joe Tripodi referred to ICAC, multiple times, including favours for friends claims
    Paul McLeay caught surfing the web for porn (resigned from cabinet)
    David Campbell caught in sauna, resigns (although this shouldn't have been an issue, but the guy was incompetent and should've been sacked for his multiple past failings)
    Angela D'Amore investigated by ICAC
  5. Scotty Simon Poidevin (60)

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    I like it better than Gillards. I mean how can a Welsh born, Adelaide raised person speak like such a bogan. It is beyond all logic.
  6. Scotty Simon Poidevin (60)

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    And on topic, if Labor don't get smashed in NSW (like it should have happened the previous election), then I think we can assume that New South Welshman are without doubt the stupidest in the country. Even if the Liberals don't put up a credible alternative, you can't possibly imagine people voting for Labor just based on the amount of corruption and dodgy behaviour that takes place in their ranks.
    naza likes this.
  7. barbarian Mark Ella (57)

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    I think the Liberals will win, but I agree with Elfster that it will be a little bit closer than expected. Not much closer, but a bit.

    I love what NSW Labor are doing at the moment, its the equivalent of taking the sledgehammer to your own instruments just as the Germans are about to board your ship- if you are going to lose, you may as well limit the enemy's gains as much as you can. Campaign donation reform, changing the rules of engagement on the floor of Parliament. Its genius because if the Liberals stop these reforms when they get into power then its a really bad look and Labor will eat them alive. But if they don't it will advantage Labor in both campaigning and day to day debate.

    Also booting out all the old dead wood is a great idea. Basically they can stand at the next election as 'New Labor', a young and vibrant party unburdened by 15 years of failure. Don't blame them for the bungles of the previous government- they weren't there!

    But I think the media will firmly side with the Liberals, and that will see them win in a canter. I think the Daily Telegraph is going to be louder than ever before, and with Ray Hadley and Alan Jones stoking the fire all Barry O'Farrell will have to do to win is show up and not say anything racist or expose his genitals. You would think he should manage it, but in NSW State Politics though I never rule anything out.
  8. Jnor Peter Fenwicke (45)

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    Sounds like an ordinary day on Macquarie St.
  9. stoff Bill Watson (15)

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    And there you have it.
  10. Moses Simon Poidevin (60)

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  11. RugbyFuture Lord Logo

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    I believe Labor are gonna run with the slogan "come on, just one more time, i promise we'll be good"

    I believe the Liberals are running with "well, we aren't Labor and we haven't done anything bad..yet"

    Both parties right now should be focused on smart urban planning and infrastructure development, not really a need for a focus on much else, especially considering health and education are basically going to the federal government. If we' where to have a a proper and correctly run train network (see below) based around common sense, the christie report, various metros proposed and the herald public inquiry, be developed in the next ten years, with proper foresight for the future (see lines to the southwest and northwest), that government would be classed in the same vein as a lesser macquarie. Its What NSW needs. of course in order to reduce on going costs they should also develop a CBD MagLev.

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  12. Ash Mark Ella (57)

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    Moses; yeah, I'm sure that I missed quite a bit. The Lane Cove tunnel and Cross City tunnels were debacles. You'd think all the Liberals would need to do is run an ad with all the crap Labor have screwed up running down the screen, Star Wars style.
    Moses likes this.
  13. Ash Mark Ella (57)

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    The complete shelving of the Christie plan is one of the all time great NSW fuckups.
    RugbyFuture likes this.
  14. Moses Simon Poidevin (60)

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    I suggested to Barry O'Farrell on twitter they run a mashup of all Labor leaders and politicians resigning in disgrace to the tune of Queen's another one bites the dust, then finish with Rees scathing farewell about the token puppet. Doubt the song would be long enough though..
  15. Scotty Simon Poidevin (60)

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    Not sure what you mean, stoff, but in my experience people raised in Adelaide have the most 'proper' accent of any Australians.
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  16. stoff Bill Watson (15)

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    Probably depends on who you were talking to. I know some that I met on school sporting exchanges have been shockers. Admittedly others did have almost a british quality to their accents.
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  17. RugbyFuture Lord Logo

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    all the south australians ive heard have had refined australian accents, i put it mostly down to the german community.
  18. Ruggo Mark Loane (55)

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    Depends on where you go in Adelaide. Places like Norwood and Glenelg all have posh accents but Elizebeth and Norlunga have some of the roughest in Australia.

    If you want a shocking voice from SA, look no further than Christopher Pyne. Half posh and the other half like his balls haven't yet dropped. Alexander Downer is not far behind him though.
  19. naza Alan Cameron (40)

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    Perhaps the most corrupt government outside of Africa. It wouldn't surprise me if they win - NSW voters are cretins. If Labor don't get kicked out, I'm going postal.
  20. Scotty Simon Poidevin (60)

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    Probably a lot more to do with their voices than their accents though.

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