Elfster
Dave Cowper (27)
Though it is generally thought as a done deal, and Labor will be "swept" from office next March and almost be turned into the 3rd party in NSW, I am beginnng to have doubts.
It may be something totally wrong, but I don't think a Labour victory (or a small loss...which will be written and seen as the same by some commentators) is totally implausible.
My reasons:
a) The NSW Libs have taken a very quiet approach...assuming that the victory is theirs. They seem a little too smug and lazy.
b) Labor through various sympathetic acolytes in the media are presenting the Liberals as a policy free zone and full of rightwing religious nutters.
c) The NSW Liberal party administration seems to be lazy, inept or totally distracted.
d) The finances of Labor (due in part to the recent political donation legislation) have far more money and willhave the Unions and Get-Up campaigning for them.
e) I don't think some of the Federal Liberals are that popular in NSW. However they won't see that and the antics of Abbot and Co in parliament are a little too negative.
f) The NSW Labor party will probably get good press from the traditional Sydney silly season and people will forget what they are really like.
g) Voter imbalance in NSW...there is a natural Labor gerrymander in NSW.
h) Support from the Federal government to retain the jewel in the crown of state governments.
i) The recent resignations in Labor wil be portrayed as a rejuvenation and the Labor will be presented as a new party in these elections.
My thoughts, but I just fear that come next year the required clean-out in NSW may not happen. Not that the Liberals will be overwhelmingly better, but something needs to be done in NSW.
It may be something totally wrong, but I don't think a Labour victory (or a small loss...which will be written and seen as the same by some commentators) is totally implausible.
My reasons:
a) The NSW Libs have taken a very quiet approach...assuming that the victory is theirs. They seem a little too smug and lazy.
b) Labor through various sympathetic acolytes in the media are presenting the Liberals as a policy free zone and full of rightwing religious nutters.
c) The NSW Liberal party administration seems to be lazy, inept or totally distracted.
d) The finances of Labor (due in part to the recent political donation legislation) have far more money and willhave the Unions and Get-Up campaigning for them.
e) I don't think some of the Federal Liberals are that popular in NSW. However they won't see that and the antics of Abbot and Co in parliament are a little too negative.
f) The NSW Labor party will probably get good press from the traditional Sydney silly season and people will forget what they are really like.
g) Voter imbalance in NSW...there is a natural Labor gerrymander in NSW.
h) Support from the Federal government to retain the jewel in the crown of state governments.
i) The recent resignations in Labor wil be portrayed as a rejuvenation and the Labor will be presented as a new party in these elections.
My thoughts, but I just fear that come next year the required clean-out in NSW may not happen. Not that the Liberals will be overwhelmingly better, but something needs to be done in NSW.