Julia's Reign

[Inside Shoulder]

there's a thought....maybe I should seek preselection this time

 

[lincoln]

Rudd is master of semantics. He said he would never be involved in a stealth attack on a PM elected by the people. Julia was elected by the Greens and Independents, so he can attack hr any time he wishes.

Edit Fricking auto-correct - a little boring when you are not a touch typer and have to watch your keystrokes rather than the outcome (just had to correct two auto-corrects in this sentence).

 

[Baldric]

So would that make Julia an anti-symantic?

 

[cyclopath]

Or even an anti-semantic. To be pro-pedantic!

 

[Scotty]

There's a snowflake's chance in hell of KRudd regaining the PM spot. Some Labor MPs have declared they'd rather chew off their right hand than have him back. If, by some extraordinary sequence of events, KRudd gets back into The Lodge there are a handful of Labor backbenchers who'll immediately resign. Mark Latham put it succintly: "everyone who likes you hasn't met you. And anyone who's met you can't stand you." Delivered personally, reportedly.

Question: when was the last time an Australian politician announced his (or her) resignation while overseas? I can't think of one. My lovely spare rib reckons the timing and place, close to Hilary Clinton, points to KRudd getting a spot at the UN, or somesuch.

Rudd has always been angling for a position in the un, but i suspect his timing was driven out of the possibilty of being fired so he acted first. Obviously the time of the announcement was also to catch gillard off guard and hit the 6pm news here.

 

[barbarian]

Here is my prediction:

Rudd loses tomorrow, claims he was beaten by the 'faceless men'. Goes to the backbench.

3 months go by and the government sink further into the mire. Recording terrible numbers. Something has to change.

Rudd steps up and says it's his time. The Gillard backers realise that a change is needed, but still can't stand Kevin. They ditch Gillard and throw their support behind the eventual winner and next PM...

Simon Crean.

The compromise candidate. They will call him a 'steady hand on the wheel', but he will fail to inspire the electorate and will lead Labor to an honourable defeat in 2013.

You heard it here first.
.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

its a good prediction but i reckon you could have given yourself some wriggle room by nominating a raft of compromise candidates, including Steven Smith, Nicola Roxon, Bill Shorten and Greg Combet

 

[barbarian]

Wiggle room is for girls.

 

[Elfster]

It would be a good time for the Libs to do some changing as well: I guess they are stuck with Abbott, but they should at least get some better talent into some of the shadow portfolios.

 

[suckerforred]

I hope this episode means labor will start respecting and representing the interests of branch members the country a bit more rather than being the spineless political entity they have become in recent times.

Think that is better.

 

[Scotty]

It would be a good time for the Libs to do some changing as well: I guess they are stuck with Abbott, but they should at least get some better talent into some of the shadow portfolios.

They won't though. While the government is shooting themselves in the foot the Libs want to be seen as stable.

Reshuffling will only occur after they win government, unless they start to struggle badly in the polls.

 

[Scotty]

Anyone else concerned that a lot of the talk in the lead up, and after the labor leadership battle revolved around 'who was best to beat Abbott', or 'who could win government; or now 'we have to position ourselves to win government'.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the job of the current government to, well provide good government? Seems they are more interested in keeping power than providing good leadership.

 

[minorbird]

If their sole concern was to keep power, then they wouldn't have been introducing things that are unpopular but still important reforms; rather they would have looked at bringing in things that are populist without necessarily being useful.

 

[Karl]

Labor are a desperate rabble. Although I wish Turnbull was leader of the Libs (41/42 was the margin with him and Abbott) I still don't see, even with Abbotts woeful public opinion polling, how the Libs lose this next one. The Libs would have to fumble the ball more times that a drunken AFL team.

 

[Karl]

If their sole concern was to keep power, then they wouldn't have been introducing things that are unpopular but still important reforms; rather they would have looked at bringing in things that are populist without necessarily being useful.

These reforms were usually required to generate the tax revenue they now need to generate their promised surplus and they have bent over backwards to protect their core voter base from them.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

It would be a good time for the Libs to do some changing as well: I guess they are stuck with Abbott, but they should at least get some better talent into some of the shadow portfolios.

This is the real tragedy of the ALP's incompetence and pointless lust for power for its own sake: there is no pressure whatsoever on the Libs to articulate an alternative set of policies. The policies to be propounded by the
ALP are determined on the run and without regard to prior commitments.

To take but one example: what is the Liberal position on pokies? What should it be?
If the alp's adopted (for the sake of forming government) policy had been taken to the electorate at the last election who knows it might have been voted for (I for one am completely in favour of it) and then Abbott would have to commit to a position on it.

By virtue of the ALP inventing the policy in order to from government it (a) had no electoral legitimacy (b) had a ready made opponent lobby group courtesy of reg'd clubs and (c) permitted Abbott to run a "Joolia's a liar" line without committing himself to any particular course at all.

 

[Bowside]

These reforms were usually required to generate the tax revenue they now need to generate their promised surplus and they have bent over backwards to protect their core voter base from them.

I dont know core voter base is the right phrase. I think core potential support base is more appropriate. In any case this group comprises a large percentage of the population so I would argue that it is a good thing that their core voter base is represented through policy.

I think it is irresponsible of the opposition, the media and subsequently the government to keep pro-porting the myth that a surplus = good, regardless of what measures have to be taken to achieve surplus. I expect Labor to deliver a very modest surplus in the coming years, but it wont actually mean the budget is in surplus, it will be nothing more than a superficial surplus achieved through a lot of fancy accounting and back ended spending.

I think it would be far smarter economically if the government didn't rip apart the budget in search of surplus but rather just said to the public that growth is steady but not as fast as originally touted and the surplus will come in time and at no greater cost to the tax payer. But they cant do this because then the media and the opposition would paint them as bad economic managers.

IMO for the most part Labor at the moment are on the right track policy wise (national health and education, moving towards ETS, NBN, pokies etc..), but the nature of the hung Parliament means that they are passing legislation that is full of holes and will need to be reformed within a few years anyway. Their other great problem of-course is that they are shithouse at managing themselves and the political discourse.

 

[Karl]

See I think the NBN is a joke, the ETS is worse (and was foisted on them by the Greens), the pokies thing wasn't even their policy and they have dumped it already, the Stimulus of cash payments and school halls and insulation were possibly the greatest wastes of money and missed opportunities ever to arise from Policy Decisions and could have created a massive and world leading early stage venture capital fund that could have had long lasting economic impacts as WELL AS providing rapid stimulus and economic activity and spending, been spent on Health or other infrastructure initiatives like mass transport and power grids etc etc.

For the most part Labor policy sucks in my view. Refugees are another epic fail and means testing the private health care rebate is bad policy too.

 

[Bowside]

I also think that situations like this are perfect examples of why the teaching of basic economics should be compulsory for all high school students and a pass mark a basic requirement to get a senior certificate.

 

[Karl]

Are you saying my opinion is flawed because I have no idea about basic economics?

That isn't a challenge, just a question. I wouldn't actually disagree with your position here. I think it's important for people to understand these issues at least to a basic level.