COVID-19 Stuff Here

[Braveheart81]

It doesn't make much sense that China managed to get away with only 81k odd cases when countries with better health infrastructure are getting reamed. Either they are cooking those numbers or they have some kind of treatment they aren't sharing?

I think there is plenty about their numbers that should be questioned.

They also instigated incredible levels of social isolation in Wuhan and social distancing and more elsewhere.

 

[cyclopath]

I suspect they only reported the severe cases. Potentially even only the ciritical ones. But let's assume it's the severe. That would put their actual reported cases above 400k. And many times more mild to asymptomatic cases.

I suspect their real numbers of deaths were much higher too.

 

[Up the Guts]

I suspect their real numbers of deaths were much higher too.

Yes, sadly the crematorium sector has apparently been going gangbusters.

 

[Dctarget]

 

[kiap]

Charting per capita can be interesting as well.

I didn't find one for deaths - it's for confirmed cases - but it shows us a lot closer to the likes of UK, for example.

 

[Aurelius]

China has a lot to answer for.

It should also be pointed out that Italy has signed up to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, and as a condition of that there were apparently 300,000 Chinese labourers working on BRI projects in Lombardy. So if anyone was curious as to how and why Italy got hit so hard - well, there you go.

Honestly, if Hong Kong and Taiwan can stand up to Chinese threats I don't know why the rest of the world is so cowed by them. The Western world is really going to have to rethink the relationship we have with them in the aftermath of this.

 

[Derpus]

It should also be pointed out that Italy has signed up to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, and as a condition of that there were apparently 300,000 Chinese labourers working on BRI projects in Lombardy. So if anyone was curious as to how and why Italy got hit so hard - well, there you go.

Honestly, if Hong Kong and Taiwan can stand up to Chinese threats I don't know why the rest of the world is so cowed by them. The Western world is really going to have to rethink the relationship we have with them in the aftermath of this.

They aren't cowed - they are bought.

 

[Dctarget]

 

[Dctarget]

Today’s results were interesting, in that our new cases rose compared to the previous day, HOWEVER due to even stronger reductions 3 days ago, our 3 day average still reduced today, from 10% to 8%. So a Growth Flag has not been triggered at this time.

 

[Dctarget]

Interestingly, they predict that we won't be able to maintain our current path which is similar to scenario 5, of -1.5% (like Hubei, South Korea after full lock downs, but should be able to achieve -1%. Which is only 10,000 infections by the end of May and our hospitals should be fine. Promising stuff.

 

[Up the Guts]

An interesting anecdote, I know someone who has just succumbed to the virus and their contact with the transmitter was, at the least, more than two weeks ago (that is, they got through the two week isolation period without symptoms).

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

The Chinese government has a lot to answer for in this situation. They were slow to respond, covered it up and misdirected all of the place. Typical of an authoritarian government I guess.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

I suspect they only reported the severe cases. Potentially even only the ciritical ones. But let's assume it's the severe. That would put their actual reported cases above 400k. And many times more mild to asymptomatic cases.

They've promised to start including asymptotic cases as of Wednesday so expect to see a big increase:

"Citing classified data, the South China Morning Post said China has found more than 43,000 cases of asymptomatic infection through contact tracing."

So that if true would straight away put their number up to ~125k (which I think is still & pretty obviously bring under-stated).

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/worl...atic-cases-after-allegations-of-cover-up.html

 

[WorkingClassRugger]

An interesting anecdote, I know someone who has just succumbed to the virus and their contact with the transmitter was, at the least, more than two weeks ago (that is, they got through the two week isolation period without symptoms).

There's a chance that can happen. Albeit very slim. Something like 1% of all cases.

 

[I like to watch]

The Chinese government has a lot to answer for in this situation. They were slow to respond, covered it up and misdirected all of the place. Typical of an authoritarian government I guess.

I’d like to know, why travellers from Wuhan infected others worldwide, but not any other Chinese cities?

 

[Brumby Runner]

Not going to defend the Chinese in their actions, but are they inconsistent with others if they haven't been reporting asymptomatic cases? My understanding is that such cases aren't even tested here.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

NZ being softened up for lockdown to be extended by at least one & probably two weeks as soon as tomorrow. My work has now shut all but four of its 61 (having closed 40, mine not included, as of last Wednesday) sites & are planning for at least some of them to be closed for up to 12 weeks.

 

[Tex]

You're right, so why are we not utilising the private hospitals to take all non-covid patients, both those in the private and public systems? That then completely frees up the public hospitals to be covid designated areas so vulnerable patients can be directed to a hospital that does not have any covid positive patients. The route they're going down mixes covid and non-covid at public hospitals.

Here's a piece of interest. I haven't gone through the fine print yet but on the surface it's an unprecedented move to 'integrate' the public and private systems, with the Commonwealth underwriting the private sector's viability.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...te-private-public-hospitals-covid-19-response

 

[Braveheart81]

Not going to defend the Chinese in their actions, but are they inconsistent with others if they haven't been reporting asymptomatic cases? My understanding is that such cases aren't even tested here.

There are inconsistencies everywhere in both the testing regimes and also the recording of deaths. In Italy and other countries apparently, elderly people dying at home don't get counted in the COVID-19 deaths because they never had a test even though they most likely died of COVID-19.

China let the virus out into the world in the first place but if you look at Australia's situation, we have imported far more of our COVID-19 problem from the USA than anywhere else. For one of our closest allies we could pin a lot of blame on their lack of response to the pandemic.

Much of the prolonged economic disaster will be as a result of many countries not taking the pandemic seriously enough and acting early based on the experience elsewhere.

The news of the novel coronavirus originating from Wuhan was available in mid January so it is not like there wasn't more time to prepare.

It's hard to pinpoint many countries where you would guarantee their response and transparency to the rest of the world would be better if a novel virus had originated in their country.

 

[fatprop]

Not going to defend the Chinese in their actions, but are they inconsistent with others if they haven't been reporting asymptomatic cases? My understanding is that such cases aren't even tested here.

They are reported if tested here, they are not being reported even if tested there and those asymptomatic dears are required to quarantine themselves

Not recording asymptomatic cases skews their figures as the denominator is less that it should be.

So the death rate looks much worse as it is only being judged against the bad hospitalisation cases, not the total population that may have been asymptomatic and got over it. Until we increase testing and get an anti body test our figures are rubbery as well.