COVID-19 Stuff Here

[Lindommer]

The ethics behind a viral passport is so bloody crazy when you think about it. Imagine if the NRL higher beings put pressure on the players and support staff to get infected so they could resume the league. Hell, I guarantee Trump would tell the US citizens the same thing without hesitating.

Isn't this exactly what the boss of the Red Bull F1 suggested just last week? Read here: https://bleacherreport.com/articles...sted-drivers-become-infected-with-coronavirus

 

[Up the Guts]

^^As Cyclo says, it’s stupid and selfish, but unfortunately that’s exactly why people will do it.

 

[Garry Owens]

When the space before the punctuation mark's eradicated , we're fine .

Fixed . Nearly .

 

[Dctarget]

 

[Dctarget]

 

[Up the Guts]

Some interesting papers coming out of the US over the last day or so modelling what is going to happen in 6 months time. They have a major gripe with some of the early models that didn’t map out what coming out of lockdown type scenarios would look like. Basically their numbers say if the US goes into lockdown now and prevents a major spread then they will have another breakout after summer and the death rates will be much higher rolling into winter. So that means you either need to be in some sort of severe shutdown until the vaccine comes (potentially 18 months, highly unfeasible people will last that long) or you need to kit yourself the fuck up and prepare the hospitals for overload.

Obviously, we’re not dealing with winter when we might be trying to open things up again (and our winters are not nearly as harsh) but I have seen movements in the last day or so that look like we’re trying to ramp up medical capacity quite markedly. I see where there is a call to arms for nurses and doctors (there are some on here that will know a lot more about that than I will) and we seem to be ramping up ventilators and ICU beds. I wouldn’t be surprised if the end game ends up being some sort of controlled spread.

 

[boyo]

Wasn't this Boris Johnson's initial plan for the UK?

He, or Dominic Cummings, wanted the U.K. to have herd immunity, then they back-tracked on that when that would lead to 250000+ deaths.

Cummings presented his plan at a private engagement at the end of February. Those present claim the plan was effectively: “herd immunity, protect the economy and if that means some pensioners die, too bad.”

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Some interesting papers coming out of the US over the last day or so modelling what is going to happen in 6 months time. They have a major gripe with some of the early models that didn’t map out what coming out of lockdown type scenarios would look like. Basically their numbers say if the US goes into lockdown now and prevents a major spread then they will have another breakout after summer and the death rates will be much higher rolling into winter. So that means you either need to be in some sort of severe shutdown until the vaccine comes (potentially 18 months, highly unfeasible people will last that long) or you need to kit yourself the fuck up and prepare the hospitals for overload.

Obviously, we’re not dealing with winter when we might be trying to open things up again (and our winters are not nearly as harsh) but I have seen movements in the last day or so that look like we’re trying to ramp up medical capacity quite markedly. I see where there is a call to arms for nurses and doctors (there are some on here that will know a lot more about that than I will) and we seem to be ramping up ventilators and ICU beds. I wouldn’t be surprised if the end game ends up being some sort of controlled spread.

Can't see how you can shut down a country for 18 months.

 

[Up the Guts]

Can't see how you can shut down a country for 18 months.

Nor do I, it's going to end up being a (hopefully) controlled spread, imho.

 

[Garry Owens]

161,000 Deaths in Australia in 2017 (0.64% of 1% of population)

2,315,000 Deaths in the USA in 2018 ( 0.76% of 1% of population )

Italy’s Annual Death Rate is about 600,000 per annum on a stated rate of 10.1 to 10.7 per thousand (which would be around 0.9% of 1% of population )

Just saying

And I find it interesting to observe the emerging attitude of the far right in the US with talk about sacrifice in the name of patriotism to save society (that they link pretty closely to economy)

Interesting, even on this thread, to feel some of those same vibes (if not so extreme) emerging

Can we , or should we ,quarantine (pardon the pun) the volume of sick (requiring hospitalisation) + acutely sick (requiring intensive care ) and the most at risk (elderly) ...from the “functioning” infected / mildly unwell + the unaffected?

The concept surrounds secondment of other private and public assets likely with the support and assistance of the armed forces to deal with the higher logistical load of treatment. And yes , I am aware that we just don’t have the volume of professionals /carers - and also , those on the front lines right now are possibly wearing increased risk as their own immune systems get compromised under the load

But rhetoric is also being used about being at war , silent enemy etc etc . By way of example, and for me - one of the great heroic and inspirational examples of humankind’s can do - during the Battle of Britain the average training time for new pilots was curtailed significantly to get bodies in the air to fight. Matter was compromised in “the normal way” things otherwise would have worked - but the preparedness to re-write your book eventually saw the RAF get to stabilise the Air Battle despite being outnumbered - and then ultimately to emerge victorious.

We are already hearing suggestions / examples of Qantas trying to redirect staff to logistic support with Coles and Woolies , people from the Health and Fitness industry to work as orderlies or anything else in low level support to help lighten any load we can

What about endeavouring to re-direct medical and nursing students who are within 1-2 years from completing their degrees to be called on , displaced specialists who are copping it from cancelled elective surgeries , persons who have previously been qualified nurses but have stayed at home to prioritise raising their families and are not “modern qualified “

What about “field facilities/ logistics ” that deal with increased load in a combination and pulling together of all above factors, and no doubt a myriad of others, around all of this that also drives hospitality / catering supply , immediate production initiatives - and there are a range of opportunities here - some of which I’ve seen in my own neighbourhood with the boys at the Milton Rum Distillery re-configuring their operations / stills over the last week to go into bulk sanitiser production. Brilliant. I think I saw something where Dyson (vacuum cleaner manufacturers ) were re-directing part of their operations to Ventilator production. Also brilliant.

There are opportunities everywhere here. And yes a large number of people need help in how they re-wire or re-direct but we have to stop thinking about what we know based on what is now the old paradigm

The new paradigm requires a lot of new creativity , co-operation and leadership - and getting past a level of thinking of what you never would have considered before

So ..with all that said - why can’t we manage both health and economy? If we continue to think , or make of it , a binary choice - it seems we’re more rooted than what we need to be in either of those choices

Well 5 days later basically most of this that I wondered about on Sunday has happened this week with call backs on ex medico staffing , the private / public deal , secondment , field facilities , industry re-direction to meet resourcing requirement etc etc.

And I truthfully had no inside knowledge.

It would seem that with at least moderate mitigation being achieved the forward modelling puts us around 10,000 confirmed cases and 1,000 active cases (last 10 day marker) toward the end of May - 2.5 months in from the commencement of hardcore steps and into reasonable suppression.

It looks like it will be a reality of life around the world at least for the next 12 - 18 months , hopefully within or by the end of that time , there is are treatment options and vaccine readily available.

At least here in Australia it looks like first racking up the mitigation flags , then into the suppression flags and see whether we can get to or under 10,000/1,000 , on or before , the end of May. Then look at a gradual re-entry process that in the timing of this phasing being dependent upon managed tolerances around the health aspects of this.

 

[Garry Owens]

5.7% Daily Infection Rate - From 6.00am April 1st to 6.00am April 2nd.

Was a tick or two under 7% the day before.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

I feel like we've done a pretty good job with this so far and hopefully in the coming weeks we'll see a real drop off in new cases.

 

[Garry Owens]

Agree Horny ........all levels of Government have done a pretty good job notwithstanding a couple of gaffes such as the Ruby Princess in NSW and the election last Saturday in QLD.

In a comparative sense we're doing ok and inherently have a natural advantage in being less densely populated and being an island nation.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Yep, all true. The next step will be to outline the pathway for us to come out of virtual house arrest.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Yep, Sweden, Netherlands, and Iceland all not in lockdown. Iceland is a pretty interesting case, they are basically doing randomised testing and are finding approx. 50% of cases are asymptomatic, bad for the spread of infections, good for the death rate.

Icelanders are a weird bunch (beer was illegal there until ~1976 for chrissake) but I'm astonished that the Dutch & esp the Swedes are so blasé about it. What's next, a Volvo with no airbags or seat belts?

 

[Up the Guts]

Icelanders are a weird bunch (beer was illegal there until ~1976 for chrissake) but I'm astonished that the Dutch & esp the Swedes are so blasé about it. What's next, a Volvo with no airbags or seat belts?

I can only assume they think their healthcare system isn't in danger of being over-capacitated and the most vulnerable will self-isolate.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Icelanders are a weird bunch (beer was illegal there until ~1976 for chrissake) but I'm astonished that the Dutch & esp the Swedes are so blasé about it. What's next, a Volvo with no airbags or seat belts?

The Swedes response is quite interesting. Their stats are "worse" than ours, but by no means out of control.

 

[Aurelius]

Icelanders are a weird bunch (beer was illegal there until ~1976 for chrissake) but I'm astonished that the Dutch & esp the Swedes are so blasé about it. What's next, a Volvo with no airbags or seat belts?

Look, this might not be related but given that the Netherlands is one of the first and most liberal adopters of euthanasia in the world, perhaps they assess the risk of a disease that mainly takes the old and/or chronically ill differently than other countries in the Western world.

 

[WorkingClassRugger]

Yep, all true. The next step will be to outline the pathway for us to come out of virtual house arrest.

Out of curiousity. Who here is still actually going into work everyday?

 

[Garry Owens]

Yeah I am. I live in Paddington right in behind Suncorp Stadium - and of course , the Milton Rum Distillery

My Office is about a 40 minute walk along the River - down Coronation Drive to Toowong and there are only 3 of us - although just me at the moment as one of the other guys lives on the GC and my other guy is at home with his wife who recently gave birth to twin sons