Discussion in 'Everything Else' started by Lindommer, Apr 13, 2017.
Please post all rowing matters here for the 2017/18 season.
Ah the 2018 season, I just wish my old pal the RowingLord was here to see it. Either I will be proven the fool (once again I might add), or this is the start of a darker time in the Shore shed. The Shorewash may finally be over. I'm sure everyone's inner RowingLord will jump to reassure any Shore rowers that might actually read this forum (other than the RowingLord [ancient history i know]) that the strong wins in the fours at HOTR will be enough for Shore to hold on for another season, but I personally don't want to be subjugated to having another HOTR 1st VIII race with a dominant Shore crew limping over the line with no real competition for first place. Thankfully, the Shore junior VIIIs gave me a late Christmas present. The last time Shore didn't have a winning junior VIII was 2014, and which of course lead to 2015. I've taken it back a few years after that, and despite constantly hearing that junior eights don't determine the following 1st VIII winner (thanks Kings), it generally follows that pattern within Shore (yes RowingLord, I do remember you telling me about the other factors referring to the 2015 crew). Feel free to discuss/combat anything I've stated, but I'm mainly just trying to point out that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. The Shorewash will eventually come to an end one way or another, here's hoping its 2018 for the sake of some close racing.
Just my 2 cents
Unless Shore change their coaches I cant see the dominance ending in 2018.
Agree shore will dominate the Viii once again and probably the 2nd Viii however the fours will be a different story. The returning boys from the viii and the second viii will be too good for the other schools as well as the Jennings factor.
What happened to the Jennings factor in 2015? I'm sure you can answer that question SIRCWATCH. Besides, if I understand what I think you're saying, this situation seems an awful lot like the 2014 eight, and without the year 13 factor I'm wondering if firstly the 2018 VIII will be off the pace, and then the lack of returning members from the eight will lead to a much weaker 2019 eight (similar to the black mark of 2015 on Shore's record)
Allow me to provide some information which may contribute to a more informed discussion.
Returning 1st VIII rowers (assuming no Pathways, dropouts, accelerations or other such tomfoolery), and their 2016 junior VIII crew to give a sense of where they've come from:
Grammar: 3 (1st), 8 (1st)
High: 3 (Yr 9), 4 (?), 7 (?), 8 (1st), c (1st)
Kings: 3 (Yr 9), 4 (1st), 7 (1st), c (2nd)
Newington: B (?), 4 (1st), 5 (?), 8 (?), c (Yr 9)
Scots: 4 (1st), 5 (1st), 6 (1st), 7 (?), 8 (?)
Shore: 2 (1st), 3 (1st), 8 (1st)
St Ignatius: 3 (2nd), 7 (1st), c (?)
St Josephs: None, it appears.
The question marks indicate that the rower did not row in 2016 for the school. I would love for members of this thread to mention if any of these individuals we're in junior crews, as my search may have been erroneous.
Conclusions/Predictions for 1st VIII 2018:
Shore 1st: 3 returners should be enough for the coach to work with and pull it off again, albeit not nearly as convincingly (certainly not an undefeated season). The junior VIII was only 3 seconds off the pace, and .6 seconds off second place, so it's results shouldn't be too much of a hindrance.
Kings 2nd-4th: With 4 returners and a the top junior VIII, they should podium.
St Ignatius 2nd-4th: With as many or less returners than Shore, and a junior VIII only .6 seconds faster, they will not be able to turn 2 consecutive second places into a win this season. 2nd-4th place is likely.
Scots 2nd-4th: Several continuers and decent results at HOTR should lead to 2nd-4th place.
Newington 5th-6th: Even with the potential for up to 5 returners, they will not improve on this year's 5th place due to poor depth.
St Josephs 5th-6th: With no returners (as far as I can see) and a 6th placed junior VIII, the 2015 win is in the past and Joeys will struggle.
High 7th: Good things to come, will overtake Grammar this coming season.
Grammar 8th: With 2 returners and only 1 junior VIII, the shed is in some trouble.
This didn't take very long to produce, I promise.
Edited to remove any mention of importing, so as to not trigger any members of the forum.
It seems that not only do you rush the slide, but also to conclusions.
Was I not clear enough that importing was "probably the cause", and did I not make any assertions for the very reason that I might be incorrect? Was my disclaimer that I would love to be pointed out as being wrong not obvious? The use of (?) rather than (import) should make it crystal clear that I didn't accuse them of importing, rather I simply didn't know where they had been. I would appreciate if you could understand my post before throwing such claims around.
Besides, the purpose of the question marks was mainly to show that we don't know if they are in year 11 or 12, and hence if they will return to the shed. Regardless, I will change some wording of my post to make it more palatable for you.
Slide Rusher before you leap up and down to the defence of newington and the accusations of importing do you know all the facts? I'm not saying I do but I have a very good reason to support the comments made by GDTS as those with close ties to the AAGPS know that all newington crews at HOTR raced in lane one as a penalty of well importorting. Not to mention their massive point loses in the JRN pennant and SNR pennant. If your denying this your an ignorant or a fool.
I never left the forum to be frank I merely have just been observing it all unfold. Interesting times ahead this season however I have to agree that shore will win in both viiis and not the fours however as many know anything can happen. I've returned because Im interested as to hear why Iv the win is so interested in my account and my bias towards shore. Iv the win you know who i reside with but I don't recall ever really hearing who you support and affiliate yourself with and since your so anti shore This year who are your tips to de thrown them?
Firstly, just reading that made me giggle.
I have to admit, I thought I'd won the little bout we had RowingLord but this has to be the first time you've genuinely surprised me, I mean I know I shocked you with the whole identity thing.
On another note if you go back to the 2017 rowing page I did write down my predictions, but generally my allegiance is based on junior eight performance and overall squad performance, not just on the highest level. Personally, I just want to know how much you factor Jnr eights into your predictions (if at all) and your opinion on using them as a bit of a yardstick for the following season as I have above.
Good to have you back RowingLord. i didn't know you were schizophrenic, but hey. how else can we explain SIRCWATCH's existence.
Before I answer your question about Jnr viii factor can you answer my question about the concentration and interest in me personally and the anti shore progeganda? Their are so many factors that lead to a winning crew the Jnr viii plays a role sure but by no means is it the most significant. Just look at kings a few years ago winning the jrn viii and 2nd at nationals and then no signs of them the following years also the 2016 shore jrn viii won nationals and the following year the viii wasn't a national winning crew so I can't say it's an influence the key however is coaching, culture and personalities within a crew.
Sorry for the misunderstanding slide rusher however I just can't stand the thought of this sport being poisoned by importation like many others have in the GPS. And I do agree GDTS was slightly out of touch with the lack of research anyway all to their own. And as for my incorrect spelling importing hey we all make mistakes? Anyway this conversation seems to have turned to a love affair between two users lets get back to the upcoming season. I've heard newington are already on the water training (more violation) what's everyone's thoughts on this? And another question I want to raise will Riverview start producing a decent crew from start to finish or will they turn up at HOTR again and surprise everyone? What are people's thoughts?
I'm interested to see who you think will podium if Joeys or Scots don't make it. They both have new coaches and I believe this could lead to something better from the sheds. Either way, Joeys 1st Viii is consistently on the podium, generally following but also 2015ing Shore. Unless something special is happening in one of the other schools, I don't see them really getting past either of them.
Boy is it lovely to have the forum alive so far from the rowing season!
Slide Rusher - If you can confidently say that any of the (?)s in my first post were incorrect, then please copy-paste that list into a new post, amend it and I'll be sure to edit my earlier one. As I've said before, I'm not in the business of defaming, as you assert. I just want us to have a resource which accurately shows the number of returning 1st VIII members per school which is an often misquoted performance metric.
SIRCWATCH - I am struggling to understand how you have the gall to call my supposed "lack of research" as "out of touch". My findings, even if half of my unknowns are incorrect, are still well over 90% accurate. Please bring something of value to the discussion before you have the nerve to criticise my research. In fact, I would advise you to do some research of your own, beginning at www.grammarcheck.net. Then you can join RowingLord (if he's still alive) in researching the word "junior", and perhaps you two will discover that the "n" comes before the "r" (hence "JNR VIII").
IV the Win - SBrow beat me to the line on that one. Perhaps I shouldn't have rowed my boat quite so gently down the stream?
It is rather pointless trying to deny the Jennings factor, simply looking at statistics he has coached winning crews since 2008 with the exceptions being 2011 and as pointed out 2015. However in both these years Shore placed in the top 3 against exceptional crews in Grammar and Joeys respectively.
Therefore it seems to me you are overlooking quality coaching and nonsensically assigning the majority of Shore success spanning a decade to one 'year 13 factor'. Hence will a 3 margin really be of consequence in 2019 after 2 years of training ?
That's out of context. My allegiance is the GPS school I support, what I said after that is my HOTR prediction. I can use different measures for them if it's based solely on opinion.
Also you still didn't respond to my question: if not Joeys/Scots, then who will come in third?
That's not the point I was trying to make there. Simply put, if there is a weaker junior eight, then generally less boys make the 1st Viii the following year (in theory), which means that like the Shore 2014 Viii to 2015 Viii, fewer people carry over, which can affect the depth and whatnot which is what I thought happened in 2015. Similarly, if that were to happen this year, then one could predict a weaker 2019 Viii.
This is a fair explanation for Shore's 2015 shortcomings. However, the distinction I would make is that this year's weak junior VIII has 3 returning 1st VIII rowers to work with, whereas Shore's weak 2014 junior VIII had only one. My sense is that this should be enough for the Shore effect to get the job done.
Happy to wade into this discussion, however I would like to avoid the trolling of last year if possible. I can give a little insight into Kings program which may have affected our performance of late- and will certainly affect our future. Over the past decade, year 10 have been heavily involved in term 4 exchanges. Rowers tend to be selected- every member of my 2014 year 10 8 went- so transition into seniors has been less than ideal.
That program has ceased.
This year, we had the biggest senior squad for years, with many year 11s. Because a number of good oarsmen returned to the shed with no term 4 miles under their belt, making the eights became difficult for them. Hence we produced some good Four results. Next year, although there is a rugby tour, there will be no exchanges- and that will make a big do
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