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Australia vs British and Irish Lions - 1st Test (Brisbane)

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ACT Crusader

Jim Lenehan (48)
I think we might see:

9 Genia
10 JOC (James O'Connor)
11 Cummins
12 Lilo
13 AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
14 Folau
15 Barnes

Phipps - pine warmer
McCabe - injury cover
Beale - super sub

For himself :) The guy hasn't had a lot of luck injury wise.

Don't mind that backline. I do think that if Barnes is fit he is someone Dean's will find a starting spot for.

With all of JOC (James O'Connor), Lilo and Barnes on, who kicks goals?
 

Athilnaur

Arch Winning (36)
RH, I think a lot of the argument put forward by yourself, Gnostic and others relates to a lack of structured attack, a set of patterns of attacking play.

My understanding of Deans approach is that most of the gameplan is around setting a structured platform that unlocks the attack. That the attack itself is what happens when gifted players seize an opportunity and exploit it, not as one player but a freeflowing group. This is quite different from for example running width because you know you won't be able to set a platform.

I think many here would argue that is no pattern at all. Certainly Eddie Jones would! But the more appropriate question to me is how will the platform be set, and will that platform unlock opportunities that our players will use well?

Last year we saw a disappointingly static effort. Our forwards frequently struggled to cohere and they were playing far too narrowly. Offloads would rarely come off, and Genia would often wait so long for the line to re-arm he could have hatched an egg! But improvements were real. Confidence was built. Depth was built.

As usual we aussies seem to concentrate so much of the debate on which backs we play, when the real battle is how will our forwards set a platform that our backs can work from and what kind of platform will it need to be?

edit - to be clear a platform is not just forwards, it's how backs set up off the play too. Forwards is my emphasis because I think that is the biggest challenge.
 

Scotty

David Codey (61)
For himself :) The guy hasn't had a lot of luck injury wise.

Don't mind that backline. I do think that if Barnes is fit he is someone Dean's will find a starting spot for.

With all of JOC (James O'Connor), Lilo and Barnes on, who kicks goals?


JOC (James O'Connor). Barnes will cramp up at about 50 minutes and Lilo is on debut.
 

BDA

Peter Johnson (47)
Of the positions still up for grabs these are my thoughts

Tighthead - Kepu/Alexander/Slipper

My pick: I'd go with Alexander. I think he's slightly stronger in the scrum than Slipper, and better than Kepu around the park. He has a good partnership with Moore and has a long history packing down with Robbo. He's also the most experienced.

Prediction: Alexander. After the stating combination things get a bit tricky to predict. Slipper is probably LH backup and Kepu TH backup, but Deans has been known to play Kepu at LH and Slipper usually plays TH, and if Robbo goes down injured Alexander will probably move to LH and... this is giving me a headache

2nd Row - Slipper or Douglas

My pick: This is a tough choice for me. Both have advantages. Simo has a great partnership with Horwill, but I'm leaning towards Douglas for the extra weight in the scrums. Also Simo has a history of losing his shit.

Prediction: Simo.

2nd Row - Gill or Hooper

My pick: Flip a coin. they will both tear it up. probably Hooper to start but I'd give Gill plenty of time in the second half. The Reds mostly dominated the Lions at the breakdown. they will struggle to deal with these guys in tandem

Prediction: Hooper

Flyhalf - JOC (James O'Connor)/Beale

My pick: JOC (James O'Connor)

Prediction: JOC (James O'Connor)

Inside- Lilo or McCabe

My pick: Lilo

Prediction: McCabe. I think Deans will play super conservative for the first half. He'll bring Lilo on in the final 30 minutes.

Fullback - Folau/Beale/Barnes

My pick: Beale. Folau on wing

Prediction: Beale. Folau on wing
 

Hawko

Tony Shaw (54)
I think we might see:

9 Genia
10 JOC (James O'Connor)
11 Cummins
12 Lilo
13 AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
14 Folau
15 Barnes

Phipps - pine warmer
McCabe - injury cover
Beale - super sub


Based on Deans' comments and who is available, that I think is THE MOST LIKELY set-up. There are some advantages to this line-up that haven't seen much discussion:
  1. The Lions have seen enough highlights reels to know not to kick to Folau. But when Barnes fields a kick in play, if Folau is within 20 metres then Barnes can set up a pass to him with space. The Lions will be seriously threatened if Folau gets space to get his run started unopposed.
  2. McCabe will be good cover for injuries to 11, 13 and 14. Injuries to 10, 12 or 15 brings Beale on and I think that if one of those goes down then there are a multitude of ways you could reshuffle and it would be relatively seamless. That's one good thing about the flexibility available with our players. (The obvious downside is that we don't have a full set of players who have played all season in their selected position.)
  3. If during the game one or more of the starting backs has major defensive issues (JOC (James O'Connor) or Lilo especially) then we can change the gameplan by bringing Barnes to 10 or 12 to stiffen that channel up.
That backline could play some breathtaking rugby. In 2010 the Aussie backline was tearing other backlines to shreds under Deans. Suddenly Deans thought we had to go on the defensive (God knows why) and the disaster that was 2011/2012 unfolded. If Deans makes a conscious decision to let that backline off the leash there is the ability to replicate 2010. But then, if Deans was going to do that he would have selected Cooper, wouldn't he? So probably they will be on a very short rope. Safety first will rule.
 

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
Of the positions still up for grabs these are my thoughts

Tighthead - Kepu/Alexander/Slipper

My pick: I'd go with Alexander. I think he's slightly stronger in the scrum than Slipper, and better than Kepu around the park. He has a good partnership with Moore and has a long history packing down with Robbo. He's also the most experienced.

Prediction: Alexander. After the stating combination things get a bit tricky to predict. Slipper is probably LH backup and Kepu TH backup, but Deans has been known to play Kepu at LH and Slipper usually plays TH, and if Robbo goes down injured Alexander will probably move to LH and. this is giving me a headache


My thoughts on the props is that Robbo and Alexander will start and Slipper and Kepu will both be considered interchangeable.

Slipper will replace whoever needs it after about 50 minutes and Kepu will only be used with about 10 minutes to go if needed.

I think Deans will be trying to get as much of the 160 minutes as possible out of Robbo, Alexander and Slipper.
 

Richo

John Thornett (49)
Not sure if it will translate to the tests, but Robbo's played more 80 minute games this season than I can remember him doing before.
 

Zander

Ron Walden (29)
Can O'Connor, Lealiifano or Beale produce a goal kicking performance good enough to win the series? I think Barnes is going to have to start for his kicking.
 

Scotty

David Codey (61)
Hawko,

I see Beale as a tactical sub for Barnes, provided JOC (James O'Connor) isn't injured. I like the idea of him coming on to add some real spark, similar to his Rebels come back game. Barnes hasn't proven full fitness yet and may need to be subbed anyway.

McCabe injury and form cover for both centres and the wing which is his clear advantage over Horne.
 

BDA

Peter Johnson (47)
Can O'Connor, Lealiifano or Beale produce a goal kicking performance good enough to win the series? I think Barnes is going to have to start for his kicking.

I think as long as JOC (James O'Connor) is in the side he will be the kicker. Two of our most memorable wins of the last 3 years have come as a result of a JOC (James O'Connor) kick (Hong Kong Bledisloe, RWC QF). We should have some confidence in him stepping up to the plate in clutch moments.
 

The Red Baron

Chilla Wilson (44)
I think as long as JOC (James O'Connor) is in the side he will be the kicker. Two of our most memorable wins of the last 3 years have come as a result of a JOC (James O'Connor) kick (Hong Kong Bledisloe, RWC QF). We should have some confidence in him stepping up to the plate in clutch moments.

I disagree. Provided he is fit, Barnes is far and away our best goalkicker. He might have missed a clutch penalty against the Brumbies a few weeks ago, but that was a blip on an otherwise superb kicking record. Last year he kicked superbly in Gold. O'Connor is too hot and cold with the boot.

You want a guy that just gets into rhythm and is consistent in their goalkicking. To me that is Barnes.
 

Brumbieman

Dick Tooth (41)
Why the fuck are we talking about Kurtley beale at flyhalf?

The kid has played no rugby for god knows how long, was gash at 10 for us last year, and isn't match fit.

If we're running out of wing options, then why the hell is Lealiifano not an option at 10? He's got more gametime there than Beiber in the last 2 years, and was actually an excellent 10 and a certainty for the squad last year until his injury.

We all know McCabe is going to start at 12, so why not try and get at least ONE super rugby combination in there and play Lealiifano at 10 and Beiber on the wing where he belongs?
 

BDA

Peter Johnson (47)
For mine the most intriguing contest in this first test will be the scrums. Which ever forward pack can get the upper hand in the scrums will win their side a mental advantage.

The starting front row of Robbo/Moore/Alexander is a good test front row imo. The Lions props are looking likely to be Vunipola and Jones. Robbo generally handled Jones pretty well last year (albeit losing a point decisions) but he is in much better form now than he was last year. Vunipola isn't the strongest scrummager going around so I think Alexander should handle him pretty well. Alexander is the more experienced of the two and on his day I think he could out-scrummage Vunipola. The Lions' tight five will probably have a slight weight advantage. Im not sure yet who will get the upper hand, but I think we can be competitive in that area.

If Robbo gets injured (touch wood) things get a bit more tricky. Because I think Jones would get the better of our other LH props.
 

BDA

Peter Johnson (47)
I disagree. Provided he is fit, Barnes is far and away our best goalkicker. He might have missed a clutch penalty against the Brumbies Crusaders a few weeks ago, but that was a blip on an otherwise superb kicking record. Last year he kicked superbly in Gold. O'Connor is too hot and cold with the boot.

You want a guy that just gets into rhythm and is consistent in their goalkicking. To me that is Barnes.

I wouldn't even have Barnes in the starting side. He'd be on the bench if I was coaching. I do agree he is a quality kicker.
 

GaffaCHinO

Peter Sullivan (51)
Why the fuck are we talking about Kurtley beale at flyhalf?

The kid has played no rugby for god knows how long, was gash at 10 for us last year, and isn't match fit.

If we're running out of wing options, then why the hell is Lealiifano not an option at 10? He's got more gametime there than Beiber in the last 2 years, and was actually an excellent 10 and a certainty for the squad last year until his injury.

We all know McCabe is going to start at 12, so why not try and get at least ONE super rugby combination in there and play Lealiifano at 10 and Beiber on the wing where he belongs?

If beale cant start at 10 because off all the reasons you listed above THEN WHY THE FUCK IS MCCABE GOING TO START AT 12!!!

He has played all of 180 mins this year was gash at 12 for us last year and the year before isnt match fit and has splinters stuck in his arse from riding the pine so much because even his own coach doesnt see him as the best 12 option.
 

Scotty

David Codey (61)
I disagree. Provided he is fit, Barnes is far and away our best goalkicker. He might have missed a clutch penalty against the Brumbies a few weeks ago, but that was a blip on an otherwise superb kicking record. Last year he kicked superbly in Gold. O'Connor is too hot and cold with the boot.

You want a guy that just gets into rhythm and is consistent in their goalkicking. To me that is Barnes.

Only if he isn't cramping up after 50-60 mins
 

RedsHappy

Tony Shaw (54)
I disagree. Provided he is fit, Barnes is far and away our best goalkicker. He might have missed a clutch penalty against the Brumbies a few weeks ago, but that was a blip on an otherwise superb kicking record. Last year he kicked superbly in Gold. O'Connor is too hot and cold with the boot.

You want a guy that just gets into rhythm and is consistent in their goalkicking. To me that is Barnes.

High quality place and hand kicking will be CRUCIAL to Wallaby prospects vs the BIL.

For years here I've been on about Deans/ARU's lack of investment in a full-time kicking skills coach. We have instead chosen a part-timer via Skype and iPad linking in from the RSA. One the very best Aussies in this field - Mick Byrne - who's worked for the ABs in this role for years - could not get a gig when he wanted to come back here in 2012. And in AFL we have the best in-depth kicking skills competencies in the world, right under our noses.

As the first BIL Test looms large, note the full-time BIL kicking skills coach regularly bringing on the tees for the BIL kickers, who've generally kicked exceptionally well since arriving here.

Two missed BIL penalty kicks vs the Reds, and two taken by QC (Quade Cooper) and Harris (both were relatively easy), and the Reds would have won.
 
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RedsHappy

Tony Shaw (54)
For mine the most intriguing contest in this first test will be the scrums. Which ever forward pack can get the upper hand in the scrums will win their side a mental advantage.

The starting front row of Robbo/Moore/Alexander is a good test front row imo. The Lions props are looking likely to be Vunipola and Jones. Robbo generally handled Jones pretty well last year (albeit losing a point decisions) but he is in much better form now than he was last year. Vunipola isn't the strongest scrummager going around so I think Alexander should handle him pretty well. Alexander is the more experienced of the two and on his day I think he could out-scrummage Vunipola. The Lions' tight five will probably have a slight weight advantage. Im not sure yet who will get the upper hand, but I think we can be competitive in that area.

If Robbo gets injured (touch wood) things get a bit more tricky. Because I think Jones would get the better of our other LH props.

For mine, 100% it's the breakdown, the proven centre of the known rugby universe. What was remarkable re the Reds game was that the Reds backrow showed up real weaknesses in the BIL's breakdown skill and intensity and won many micro-contests there (indeed, those wins were crucial to the way Cooper was able to orchestrate play). Warburton was rendered poor-to-ordinary in his work that night. B Robinson made some mistakes in that game, but geez he successfully harassed the BIL off the ball numerous times and regularly showed the BIL loosies right up. IMO, this exposure of BIL weak spots has not been commented on enough. It's one of the reasons I think our better classic fetcher Gill should start, with Hooper coming on later.
 

Scoey

Tony Shaw (54)
On the Rugby Club last night they mentioned that Lilo was wearing 12 in the opposed training runs. I don't know what you can read into this but I would prefer to see him there than McCabe at the moment.
 

Dan54

Tim Horan (67)
I think Lilo will get 12, if Deans wanted to play McCabe he would of picked Cooper, who takes his centres out of the game.
 
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