Blues v Brumbies - Friday 8 July 2016

[Braveheart81]

Blues team:
15. Melani Nanai
14. Matt Duffie
13. Male Sa'u/Matt Vaega
12. Piers Francis
11. Tevita Li
10. Ihaia West
9. Bryn Hall
8. Steven Luatua
7. Kara Pryor
6. Jerome Kaino
5. Josh Bekhuis/Scott Scrafton
4. Patrick Tuipulotu
3. Ofa Tu'ungafasi
2. James Parsons
1. Sam Pratley


Reserves: Quentin MacDonald, Nic Mayhew, Sione Mafileo, Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, Blake Gibson, Billy Guyton, Matt Vaega or Michael Little, Lolagi Visinia.

 

[Brumby Jack]

Brumbies

Scott Sio
Stephen Moore (c)
Ben Alexander
Rory Arnold
Sam Carter
Scott Fardy
Jarrad Butler
Michael Wells
Tomás Cubelli
Christian Lealiifano (c)
James Dargaville
Matt To'omua
Tevita Kuridrani
Nigel Ah Wong
Aidan Toua

Reserves
Josh Mann-Rea
Allan Ala'alatoa
Ruan Smith
Blake Enever
Tom Staniforth
Joe Powell
Andrew Smith
Lausii Taliauli

 

[Upthenuts]

blues looking a little lightweight talent wise in the backs, forwards coming on nicely, very good last week vs half the wallabies. should be a good win for the blues

 

[The torpedo]

Gonna call it - Blues to upset the brumbies 18-16

 

[Dismal Pillock]

Sau woke up last week, looked v.sharp

Visinia must be well and truly in the doghouse now if he can't even usurp the sleepwalking Li and the speedbump Duffman.

Good to see Pryor rewarded for storming game last week. Blake Gibson rides the pine.



ps Duffman's tackling technique. Oh Yeah!

 

[Brumby Runner]

I will be very surprised and very chuffed if the Brumbies get away with this one. Eden Park is a graveyard for Aus sides.

But if they win, then I'll be confident of a semi-final spot, one way or another (ie, either top the group or two Aus sides in the finals).

 

[Groucho]

Brumbies by 15 vs. cellar dweller Blues.

 

[Groucho]

I will be very surprised and very chuffed if the Brumbies get away with this one. Eden Park is a graveyard for Aus sides.

But if they win, then I'll be confident of a semi-final spot, one way or another (ie, either top the group or two Aus sides in the finals).

Unless the Tahs get a winning BP and the Brumbies don't. Then you're reliant on BPs all going your way in the final round.

 

[Brumby Runner]

I'm thinking more that if both the Tahs and Brumbies win the last two games, we are in with a very good chance of having a wildcard in the finals series as well as the top of the group. That might, of course, rely on each winning BPs in each of the games but I haven't looked at that detail.

 

[Braveheart81]

Whilst it's not guaranteed, it would seem likely that both the Tahs and Brumbies both make it if they win their last two games.

The Hurricanes would have to beat the Crusaders in Christchurch in the last round to make it as a wildcard if the Tahs and Brumbies both win their last two.

 

[Scrubber2050]

Supporting the Brums this week

Why ? Simple really, they have more Queenslanders

Brums to win with a bonus point.

 

[zer0]

This Blues team sits at the bottom of the New Zealand conference, shorn of a third of its top starting XV, coached by a Super Rugby rookie, has one starting All Black in their entire squad, an Englishman in the backline and a school bully on one wing.

The Brumbies, on the other hand, are at the top of the Australian conference, coached by a seasoned Super Rugby coach and Wallaby great, contain multiple starting Wallabies throughout their squad and are have the motivation of playing to secure a favourable playoff position.

I think this should be a fairly open and shut match.

Clearly the Blues will win by 7-10 points.

 

[MonkeyBoy]

This Blues team sits at the bottom of the New Zealand conference, shorn of a third of its top starting XV, coached by a Super Rugby rookie, has one starting All Black in their entire squad, an Englishman in the backline and a school bully on one wing.

The Brumbies, on the other hand, are at the top of the Australian conference, coached by a seasoned Super Rugby coach and Wallaby great, contain multiple starting Wallabies throughout their squad and are have the motivation of playing to secure a favourable playoff position.

I think this should be a fairly open and shut match.

Clearly the Blues will win by 7-10 points.

that is Gold!!

 

[Viking]

We should win this easily, but that's what i said 2-3 years ago when they ended up beating us in the final round which meant we didn't make the finals.

Brumbies have a history of starting the season well but ending it poorly.

Although having a full strength 9-10-12 is a big plus.

Brumbies by 12.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Was a bit worried by the inclusion of two locks and no back rower on the bench, but Nigel Ah Wong has a history playing No 6 and I think Dargaville also played a bit at flanker in earlier days, so perhaps one of those could fill in on the side of the scrum in an emergency.

 

[Braveheart81]

We should win this easily, but that's what i said 2-3 years ago when they ended up beating us in the final round which meant we didn't make the finals.

Brumbies have a history of starting the season well but ending it poorly.

Although having a full strength 9-10-12 is a big plus.

Brumbies by 12.

I don't know about "should win easily".

The heaviest defeat the Blues have had at home this season is by 5 points against the Crusaders.

The Blues are never easy to defeat at home and you can almost guarantee that if they do lose they will be close.

 

[Groucho]

Whilst it's not guaranteed, it would seem likely that both the Tahs and Brumbies both make it if they win their last two games.

The Hurricanes would have to beat the Crusaders in Christchurch in the last round to make it as a wildcard if the Tahs and Brumbies both win their last two.

Sadly the numbers aren't actually so kind. They both require two wins and two winning BPs if both are to qualify, and even then there are combinations of other results that can stop it happening.

 

[Braveheart81]

Sadly the numbers aren't actually so kind. They both require two wins and two winning BPs if both are to qualify, and even then there are combinations of other results that can stop it happening.

If the Hurricanes lose both their last two games, the most points they can finish on is 46 (two bonus point losses). Two wins by the Brumbies and Tahs would put them on a minimum of 47.

Two bonus point wins would guarantee the Brumbies top spot in the Aussie conference. Two bonus point wins by the Waratahs still doesn't guarantee them a finals spot so they are dependent on other results regardless.

 

[Groucho]

If the Hurricanes lose both their last two games, the most points they can finish on is 46 (two bonus point losses). Two wins by the Brumbies and Tahs would put them on a minimum of 47.

Two bonus point wins would guarantee the Brumbies top spot in the Aussie conference. Two bonus point wins by the Waratahs still doesn't guarantee them a finals spot so they are dependent on other results regardless.

It's not the Hurricanes, it's the three other Keewee teams. Unless I'm mistaken, here are the final round permutations, assuming everyone material wins this round with no BPs, and no BPs are scored in the final round either. None produce two Australian finalists.

1. W B CR HI win

Chiefs 50
Brumbies 47
Crusaders 53
Highlanders 51
Waratahs 47
Hurricanes 44

2. W B CR CH win

Chiefs 54
Crusaders 53
Brumbies 47
Highlanders 47
Waratahs 47
Hurricanes 44

3. W B HU HI win

Highlanders 51
Brumbies 47
Chiefs 50
Crusaders 49
Hurricanes 48
Waratahs 47

4. W B HU CH win

Chiefs 54
Brumbies 47
Crusaders 49
Hurricanes 48
Highlanders 47
Waratahs 47

 

[Braveheart81]

It's not the Hurricanes, it's the three other Keewee teams. Unless I'm mistaken, here are the final round permutations, assuming everyone material wins this round with no BPs, and no BPs are scored in the final round either. None produce two Australian finalists.

1. W B CR HI win

Chiefs 50
Brumbies 47
Crusaders 53
Highlanders 51
Waratahs 47
Hurricanes 44

2. W B CR CH win

Chiefs 54
Crusaders 53
Brumbies 47
Highlanders 47
Waratahs 47
Hurricanes 44

The fifth place Australasian team makes the finals.