Brumbies 2018

[Braveheart81]

Ok everyone. No more posts talking about rugby until after round 7.

 

[Slim 293]

Ok everyone. No more posts talking about rugby until after round 7.

Maybe not such a bad idea.......... we might have Pocock and Valetini back by then.

 

[cyclopath]

Ok everyone. No more posts talking about rugby until after round 7.

By then, the Sky Is Falling 2018 thread will be 400 pages, and Dismal Pillock will have killed the new server with flow charts and GIFs.

 

[RoffsChoice]

The talk before Lilo returned from Ulster was that McKellar was going for a Lilo-Hawera 10-12 combo (in some order, never clear who would be in which jersey). Something clearly happened between Lilo's return and the Chiefs trial to have him settle on this Lilo-Godwin partnership. What that something is can only be speculation, but I suspect the rapid decline in Ulster's form since Lilo left, and their inability to make anything work with any 10, convinced him that Lilo should be the 10 for the Brumbies. However, it could just as easily be that McKellar was struggling to find a good centre partnership and felt forced into using the existing Godwin-Kuridrani pairing. Maybe both.

I won't be shocked if Lilo ends up back at 12 and suddenly is a better goalkicker. Mostly because of how time consuming it is to perfect the skill and that would keep him away from the more detailed training that a good 10 needs. But I'm still trying to work out what McKellar actually wants from his backline, so I can't really make any predictions about what will happen.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Roffy, atm it's just too similar to what was there last year, with Christian taking Hawera's spot and Peni on the wing. I think it's time to change up a bit in order to bring some differences to the way they play as a backline. Certainly, moving Christian to 12 and reinstating Hawera at 10 is an obvious option. But I would also like to see Andrew Muirhead play a bigger role. It might seem like a step too far, but I'd put him at 15. He seems to be playing a more dynamic game in attack from the back than Banks is so far this year. Maybe try Banks at 13, off the bench to start with, to give Tevita some extra incentive to up his game. I would also like to see Verity-Am come off the bench to see how his extra pace might be used to good effect towards the back end of a game.

Whatever happens, we need to get a lot more spark in the attack.

 

[RoffsChoice]

Completely agree about Muirhead, BR. I know I said that Speight and Dargaville were our best wingers last season, but Muirhead's ability to kick and tackle, as well as his sheer pace, all adds up to a serious contender for the back three. I could see us playing him at 11 in the same mould as how the Lions use Ruan Combrinck.

I'm looking through the stats and replays today, hopefully will have something to actually say about what McKellar is thinking tactically!

 

[Rebels3]

I'd go

9. Powell
10. CLL
11. Peni
12. Hawera
13. Kurindrani
14. Speight
15. Banks

Other options that warrant testing is Godwin at 15. Has a decent kicking game and can link in the line to help shift the ball.

I am a fan of Peni, but he looks like he isn't physically fit atm. So maybe Muirhead to play a roaming role (Brumbies probably have the most rigid wingers in the comp), so could offer something a little bit different for the defense to think about.

Problem with Brums is skillwise, in particular their passing. Other than Hawera and CLL, i'd say the rest of the players lack poise and the basic left to right, right to left all round passing game, but they have some great hole runners or players that can win contact and in Speight an elusive runner. Problem is it's very rigid and limited when there isn't enough players around them to utilise their obvious strengths.

I'd also like to see Naisarani freed up to run the edges a little more, which would mean having a dominant ball carrier in the pack to free up some of this slack. He could be the perfect link between back and forwards, although a little tougher now that Valentini is out.

Also Abel is light years a head of Mann-Rea at worst he'd provide an improvement in ability to get around the park, plus where is Folau Fainga'a??

 

[MonkeyBoy]

I'd go

where is Folau Fainga'a??

I thought he was busted

 

[RoffsChoice]

Josh Mann-Rea is the best hooker at the Brumbies; his work around the park is comparable to Moore at his peak, and he does his job well in the set piece. Folau Fainga'a has NRC form which suggests he is better than Robbie Abel and should be the reserve, and can use his time off the bench to challenge for the starting spot, but his is injured for an unknown period. Abel has not done anything off the bench to suggest he should be ahead of Mann-Rea.

Not to drift into the "is he a 10, is he a 12" nonsense around Lilo (surprise, he's good at both), but he has experience at 12, and as a partner to Kuridrani, at Super level, while Hawera does not. Hawera, on the other hand, has a season of experience at 10, and a developed partnership with Powell. So, if we're going to have them as the new 10-12, it should be Hawera at 10 and Lilo at 12. This is also the scenario in which I suspect Lilo's goalkicking would improve.

 

[Slim 293]

Fainga'a was injured during the trials but played for the Brumby Runners during round one..........

So I assume he's fit enough to be considered for selection?

 

[RoffsChoice]

Interesting, I was wondering why I couldn't find his return date. Maybe McKellar has disregarded NRC form and gone for proven ability at this level.

 

[mst]

I am curious about:

9. Powell / Lucas
10. Hawera
11. Peni
12. Muirhead
13. Dragaville
14. Taliauli
15. Banks



As a transition thing, I would even be happy to leave Godwin in @13 for a few weeks (2) for stability then sub Dargaville in for him.

With the potential issue of being light on in the flanker ranks as a temporary fix I would be tempted to give Kurindrani a run @6 if required. I will be glad when Hyne is back. He looked good in the NRC.

IMHO I also think that unless the Brumbies pack start to shift up a gear from a "canter" guys like Erasums and LLoyd should start to considered to get some speed up front. Its nice to have a great scrum but if it brings us nothing but good scrums is it worth it? We need to stop living and dying by the set piece.

 

[mst]

Interesting, I was wondering why I couldn't find his return date. Maybe McKellar has disregarded NRC form and gone for proven ability at this level.

Also ignoring 2x scrum coaches who rave about him!

 

[RoffsChoice]

Its nice to have a great scrum but if it brings us nothing but good scrums is it worth it? We need to stop living and dying by the set piece.

Top notch, mate! But in all seriousness, as it stands, I'd even question if we have a great scrum at the moment. Alexander, Ala'alatoa, and Makin have all been shown up by their oponents over the last two weeks. I think Ala'alatoa was unlucky in Japan to have Richie Arnold struggling behind him, and to come up against Brumbies legend JP Smith in some great form at Suncorp, so expect a return to form from him. Likewise, we have Mayhew and Sio returning soon at LHP, and they're great in the scrum and around the park.

But god damn are you right about living and dying by the set piece. Getting it right is essential to titles, but title-winning teams do so much more than rolling mauls and scrum penalties; even those seasons where the Bulls won the title, they either scored the most or second most tries. And while the maul is a good option to have available from a 5m lineout, it's going to be less effective when it's all you do and teams can just practice stopping it for a week beforehand.

 

[Brumby Runner]

I am curious about:

9. Powell / Lucas
10. Hawera
11. Peni
12. Muirhead
13. Dragaville
14. Taliauli
15. Banks



As a transition thing, I would even be happy to leave Godwin in @13 for a few weeks (2) for stability then sub Dargaville in for him.

With the potential issue of being light on in the flanker ranks as a temporary fix I would be tempted to give Kurindrani a run @6 if required. I will be glad when Hyne is back. He looked good in the NRC.

IMHO I also think that unless the Brumbies pack start to shift up a gear from a "canter" guys like Erasums and LLoyd should start to considered to get some speed up front. Its nice to have a great scrum but if it brings us nothing but good scrums is it worth it? We need to stop living and dying by the set piece.

Think there just might be a bit too much change in that backline Matt. I think I'd go with :

Powell, Hawera, Peni, Lealiifano, Kuridrani, Speight, Muirhead.

On the bench, Lucas, Banks, Verity-Am.

I know ther Godwin has been showing his best form for many years, but I do agree with an earlier comment (by Hawko, I think) that he is disrupting the wider attack. Even when he does make a break or looks to set up a support, more than 50% of the time he throws a forward pass to the outside man. I think he must get pinged more than any other player for forward passes.

If Perni doesn't show his worth shortly, he could be replaced by Taliaui. I really would like to see Banks get a go at 13 off the bench, putting more pressure on Tevita to play to his ability.

 

[RoffsChoice]

I've been trying to work out what the attacking plan is under McKellar, and the stats are telling us something weird. This isn't really a complete analysis yet, but I feel close enough to make some claims. The forwards are taking up 57% of the carries, which is the second highest (behind 2016) it has been since the end of Super 14. However, the breakdown of passing is even stranger. In an average season since 2011, the scrumhalf makes 50% of the passes, the 10 and the 12 make 20%, and the rest of the team makes the remaining 30%. This season, the scrumhalf is making 55% percent of the passes, the 10 and the 12 are making 26% of the passes, and the rest of the team are only making 19% of the passes.

Statistically, the decision making and distribution of responsibilities this season seems to be attempting to mirror 2013, with the key difference of passing, with the 9 making the same 55%, but the 10-12 axis taking on an extra 10% of the passing from the rest of the team. What this means in practice is that the forwards are not operating as a collective unit, but are instead spread throughout the backline. This might actually be a good thing with the new breakdown rules, as you may only need one or two forwards to secure your own ball, but it also makes safe pick-and-gos harder to pull off. This makes me nervous, as two of the primary systems in the 2013 attacking setup were relentless pick-and-go, and unobstructed shifting of the ball by the backs. Both of those are hampered by putting forwards in the backline.

I'm waiting to see what happens in Melbourne, but, if the stats are telling us the right thing, then this is a worry.

Edit: Also, if we're picking backlines, it has to be Powell-Hawera-Dargaville-Lilo-Kuridrani-Muirhead-Banks, haha.

 

[mst]

Think there just might be a bit too much change in that backline Matt. I think I'd go with :

Powell, Hawera, Peni, Lealiifano, Kuridrani, Speight, Muirhead.

On the bench, Lucas, Banks, Verity-Am.

I know ther Godwin has been showing his best form for many years, but I do agree with an earlier comment (by Hawko, I think) that he is disrupting the wider attack. Even when he does make a break or looks to set up a support, more than 50% of the time he throws a forward pass to the outside man. I think he must get pinged more than any other player for forward passes.

If Perni doesn't show his worth shortly, he could be replaced by Taliaui. I really would like to see Banks get a go at 13 off the bench, putting more pressure on Tevita to play to his ability.

Good point BR. But if you consider the Powell Hawera combination is already familiar. Dargaville played @12 all of the NRC with Haweara (and one game of Powell, Hawera, Dargaville). Muirhead was in that set up at either 11 or 15. The only new one in the group that hasn't played in a back-line together is Peni.

 

[TOCC]

Kyle Godwin linked to a move to ireland

 

[Brumby Jack]

^ Accurate.

I won't spoil the surprise on which province he'll end up at

 

[TOCC]

Connacht