COVID-19 Stuff Here

[Up the Guts]

They did a cool study of pregnant women in a couple of New York hospitals. Something like 15% tested positive as a result of pregnancy screening (they hadn’t been officially tested and recorded as a case) and something like 28/33 were asymptomatic. The implications are that infection rates may be way understated in NYC but obviously the trends can’t be readily generalised to the whole population as pregnant women maybe more likely to be infected given the time they spend in hospital (vectors for the disease) and of they’re relatively young and healthy they’re less likely to be severely sick.

 

[Dismal Pillock]

cool pregnant women

Seen those vids too.

 

[Up the Guts]

Seen those vids too.

Every damn time.

I swear you’ve reverse engineered one of those Russian bots to pick up, rather than put out, potential sexual content.

 

[formerflanker]

2% of 25 million is still a shit load of dead bodies. (as is 10% if the health care system is overwhelmed)
We’ve only lost 61 people because of the restrictions.
It’s worth remembering that if we hadn’t done it, we’d be in the middle of the same disaster that’s happening overseas, and we’d still have the same restrictions by now. They would have just been delayed a few weeks and with a bunch more dead folk.

Your assumption that every single Australian will contract the coronavirus is too extreme.
The low number of deaths, the low number of confirmed corona cases (6,400), and the high recovery rate are good news.
Good enough to stop the government policy of destroying jobs, businesses, the budget, education and mental health.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Looking increasingly likely that NZ Gov't will announce a loosening of restrictions on Monday, even the Finance Minister is talking about businesses that can operate "safely" being able to open on a similar basis to the "essential" ones that stayed open.

My work has circulated an 18-page Health Dep't code of practice for construction sites (parts of which apply to us as a supplier) & presumably there are similar guidelines for other industries.

Pretty sure the move from Level 4 to 3 won't be immediate as most businesses will still probably have to get some sort of clearance from their local Medical Officer of Health before opening but it's great news (provided of course we don't see a resurgence of the virus).

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

This group based at the School of Law at New York University have collated a timeline of the US Government's response, with each point referenced.

https://www.justsecurity.org/69650/timeline-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic-and-u-s-response/

Pretty damning stuff.

Damning indeed, it's no wonder Mr Orange is pointing fingers in all directions to spread the blame as widely as possible.......

 

[Garry Owens]

^ I think Mr Orange only limited his blame to Mr Blonde suggesting that Mr Blonde was plotting to double cross Joe and Nice Guy Eddie.

 

[Braveheart81]

Your assumption that every single Australian will contract the coronavirus is too extreme.
The low number of deaths, the low number of confirmed corona cases (6,400), and the high recovery rate are good news.
Good enough to stop the government policy of destroying jobs, businesses, the budget, education and mental health.

You keep using low figures that are the direct result of the measures put in place that you don't like to argue that those measures should be removed.

 

[Tex]

I don't quite follow the formerflanker logic. We have a 'low number of deaths' and a 'low number of confirmed corona cases' because we acted just early enough and copped the economic pain in order to avoid the double whammy of people dying alone in hospital corridors as well as the inevitable economic shut down.

It's not like there are no case studies of regions and economies that have either taken a different policy route or enacted a version of Australia's policies too late.

It really looks like we've scraped into the goldilocks zone by a matter of days, and definitely shouldn't squander it.

 

[Tex]

Damning indeed, it's no wonder Mr Orange is pointing fingers in all directions to spread the blame as widely as possible...

I hope the handful of Trump boosters and defenders have a read and reflect.

 

[Dctarget]

Day 34 Scoreboard for Wednesday 15th April (9:00pm data):
6,449 total Australian confirmed cases.
34 new
+0.5% single day increase
+0.6% daily increase
Today marks the third consecutive day where our case growth has been held below 1%.


CONGRATULATIONS AUSTRALIA
TOGETHER WE HAVE FLATTENED THE CURVE
1 new deaths in the past 24 hours means that the AU death toll has now risen to 63.
Our results to date have been amazing and should be celebrated, but this pandemic is still far from over. What we do next is something that we all need to consider very carefully. We look forward to those conversations.

This will be the LAST update in the current format, more on that tomorrow…

 

[Dctarget]

Let us quickly recap the timeline of this pandemic in Australia.


(Nominal) Day 1: 13th March
Confirmed Outbreak (~200 cases)
198 total cases, 21% (3 day) average growth rate


Day 14: 26th March
Mitigation Triggered
(also the first day of Growth factor > 1, another common inflection indicator)
2,805 total cases, 22% average growth rate.


Day 25: 6th April
Suppression Triggered
(first day below 3% average growth rate)
5,795 total cases, 2.7% average growth rate.


Day 34: 15th April (today)
Curve Flattened
(3 consecutive days below 1% growth rate)
6,449 total cases, 0.6% average growth rate.


Our final “predictions” from our mitigation and suppression model are shown in our very last graph provided with today’s update. This model depicts a future case growth at 0.5% with this growth rate remaining steady into the future. This rate is indicated as Scenarios S05. The previous graphs of 1% (S1), 2% (S2) and 3% (S3) have been dropped.

 

[Dctarget]

 

[Tex]

Victoria is changing its testing criteria to allow anyone with fever, sore throat, cough etc. to receive a COVID-19 test. On one hand it may result in an increase of confirmed cases, but will be a useful tool in contact tracing and isolating known infections in the community.

 

[Braveheart81]

Victoria is changing its testing criteria to allow anyone with fever, sore throat, cough etc. to receive a COVID-19 test. On one hand it may result in an increase of confirmed cases, but will be a useful tool in contact tracing and isolating known infections in the community.

So has NSW as the demand for tests under the previous criteria had reduced to a level where they had lots of excess capacity. Now encouraging anyone with any relevant symptoms from suburbs with more and/or recent cases to come and get tested.

 

[Up the Guts]

US intelligence saying that while the virus was not grown in a lab, it leaked from a lab in Wuhan where it was studied. Purportedly, improper safety precautions meant that an intern was infected who then infected her boyfriend who attended the wet markets. The mental health of that intern, geez.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

I hope the handful of Trump boosters and defenders have a read and reflect.

They won't & won't. That, plus another six months in which to re-write history, is what he's counting on come November.

 

[Tex]

US intelligence saying that while the virus was not grown in a lab, it leaked from a lab in Wuhan where it was studied. Purportedly, improper safety precautions meant that an intern was infected who then infected her boyfriend who attended the wet markets. The mental health of that intern, geez.

Source?

 

[Ignoto]

US intelligence saying that while the virus was not grown in a lab, it leaked from a lab in Wuhan where it was studied. Purportedly, improper safety precautions meant that an intern was infected who then infected her boyfriend who attended the wet markets. The mental health of that intern, geez.

"And I would just say at this point, it’s inconclusive, although the weight of evidence seems to indicate natural. But we don’t know for certain."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ab-general-mark-milley?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

[formerflanker]

I don't quite follow the formerflanker logic. We have a 'low number of deaths' and a 'low number of confirmed corona cases' because we acted just early enough and copped the economic pain in order to avoid the double whammy of people dying alone in hospital corridors as well as the inevitable economic shut down.

It's not like there are no case studies of regions and economies that have either taken a different policy route or enacted a version of Australia's policies too late.

It really looks like we've scraped into the goldilocks zone by a matter of days, and definitely shouldn't squander it.

Perhaps I haven't been clear.
Yes, the shutdown has worked. We also have natural advantages which have been helpful too.
The shutdown now needs to be re-appraised in the light of the good news of low deaths and minimal contracted cases.
The number of jobless, the closing of businesses, and the lurch towards recession or even depression all demand we start removing restrictions.
To sum up - 2 deaths yesterday. The curve has flattened. The news is very positive. Let's get Australia back to work.