Dismal Pillock
David Codey (61)
That's a shocker betty crocker
ps Cyclo, you fixed us up a cure yet? Get busy with them beakers.
COVID-19 Stuff Here
- Thread starter dru
- Start date
That's a shocker betty crocker
ps Cyclo, you fixed us up a cure yet? Get busy with them beakers.
I've got Chief Lab Tech Shiggins all over it. Mixing chemicals like John Howard on the decks!
Dismal Pillock
David Codey (61)
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Dctarget
John Eales (66)
Lads, it ain’t right wing or left wing governments. All the best led countries are led by women.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivah...avirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivah...avirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/
Froggy
John Solomon (38)
I hope that's tongue in cheek Dctarget!
Germany infection rate 1,552/million, death rate 2.5%
Denmark infection rate 1,122/million, death rate 4.4%
Finland infection rate 571/million, death rate 1.9%
Norway infection rate 1,218/million, death rate 2%
Iceland infection rate 5,014/million, death rate 0.5%
These are the examples the writer (CEO of a gender balance consultancy) quotes.
Comparatively Australian infection rate 251/million, death rate 1%
The only valid 'women are better' examples she quotes are New Zealand and Taiwan.
I'm not saying women aren't just as good, only that any attempt to align the effectiveness of response with either gender or political leaning are rubbish. As someone said earlier, it's good governments v less effective governments, regardless of their political inclination, or the gender, hair colour or body mass index of their leader!!!
Germany infection rate 1,552/million, death rate 2.5%
Denmark infection rate 1,122/million, death rate 4.4%
Finland infection rate 571/million, death rate 1.9%
Norway infection rate 1,218/million, death rate 2%
Iceland infection rate 5,014/million, death rate 0.5%
These are the examples the writer (CEO of a gender balance consultancy) quotes.
Comparatively Australian infection rate 251/million, death rate 1%
The only valid 'women are better' examples she quotes are New Zealand and Taiwan.
I'm not saying women aren't just as good, only that any attempt to align the effectiveness of response with either gender or political leaning are rubbish. As someone said earlier, it's good governments v less effective governments, regardless of their political inclination, or the gender, hair colour or body mass index of their leader!!!
tragic
John Solomon (38)
As froggy has said it’s very important to look at infection rates/million population rather than absolute numbers.
NZ has been the poster country lately for containment but if you look at NZ and QLD, both population approx 5 million give or take, they are tracking identical courses on the graph below.
NZ is in lockdown
QLD is practicing social distancing
Many epidemiological models showed very little difference between lockdown and 80-90% compliance with social distancing. This would seem to support that theory.
NZ has been the poster country lately for containment but if you look at NZ and QLD, both population approx 5 million give or take, they are tracking identical courses on the graph below.
NZ is in lockdown
QLD is practicing social distancing
Many epidemiological models showed very little difference between lockdown and 80-90% compliance with social distancing. This would seem to support that theory.
Up the Guts
Steve Williams (59)
As Rob42 said it's too early to be making proper assessments, however, in the wash up any major evaluation needs to consider the number of major entry/exit points to a country. The fact that all those countries on Dctarget's list, bar Germany and Denmark, are islands (as well as other top performers like Australia, Singapore etc.) probably has as much to do with overall success than anything else. Germany is the really remarkable performer given they have been surrounded by destruction and so far have avoided it.
Definitely better to try and standardise numbers - i.e. infections and / or deaths per million population. Although they will be slightly skewed when you look at smaller samples in smaller populations / different population densities / different testing regimens etc...
For example, you could compare greater Sydney to NZ roughly in raw population numbers, but not really analogous population groups in terms of density etc...
So many variables in the flood of data we get.
By most, if not all, measures, we are doing pretty well.
Up the Guts
Steve Williams (59)
Yeah, I don't envy the statistical departments who will be charged with modelling optimal responses when this is all over.
Brumby Runner
Jason Little (69)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/...us-response-california-washington-oregon.html
An extra long but enlightening discussion on the different outcomes in Washington, Oregon and California to New York and other NE states.
Seems to put to bed any suggestion that the Western States have deliberately (or accidentally) sought herd immunity. Authorities in all three States attribute early intervention to be the reason they've managed the infection better than the East. At the time of publishing, California had recorded just 2 deaths per 100,000 population cf NY at 44/100,000.
An extra long but enlightening discussion on the different outcomes in Washington, Oregon and California to New York and other NE states.
Seems to put to bed any suggestion that the Western States have deliberately (or accidentally) sought herd immunity. Authorities in all three States attribute early intervention to be the reason they've managed the infection better than the East. At the time of publishing, California had recorded just 2 deaths per 100,000 population cf NY at 44/100,000.
Interesting analysis coming out of the states
Largest US Study of COVID-19: Obesity Single Biggest Chronic Factor
https://www.physiciansweekly.com/largest-us-study-of-covid-19-obesity-biggest-chronic-factor/
Largest US Study of COVID-19: Obesity Single Biggest Chronic Factor
https://www.physiciansweekly.com/largest-us-study-of-covid-19-obesity-biggest-chronic-factor/
Up the Guts
Steve Williams (59)
Authorities in all three states credit themselves for the lower death rate? Seems like they would be impartial.
Reading the article the lockdown difference is only 2 days which is why some scientists have floated that there maybe something else going on regarding the disparity in deaths. The other matter is California has lower rates of infection than more comparable states and not just NYC where you have 8 million people packed together.
waiopehu oldboy
Stirling Mortlock (74)
Both are important. The raw numbers are still vital as the starting point whether a population is large or small is always the same. A few cases that then start multiplying exponentially. If you only work with standardised numbers, then the outbreak gets hidden in large countries until it is already out of control.
I wonder whether the ports of entry are relevant here? LA/San Fran are the main ports of entry for the West Coast and most countries through Asia etc. have done a pretty good job of controlling the pandemic. The East Coast and particularly New York as the main port of entry is exposed to the UK and Europe which have generally done a far worse job of containing the pandemic.
Tex
Greg Davis (50)
Population density also doesn't carry. Noting recent troubles in containing the virus, high density cities like Hong Kong and Singapore have been cruising compared to New York, and that's with a far higher exposure to Chinese visitors through December, January and February.
Public health measures, implemented prudently, work.
Population density is relevant - it is harder to reduce contacts in higher density population groups simply due to proximity; the fact that some countries have done this well doesn't diminish the importance, it just means they've done a great job. 4.5 million people all over NZ or Ireland is a different cohort to 4.5 million in greater Sydney. Anecdotal exceptions don't disprove the underlying thesis.
boyo
Mark Ella (57)
And Trump said (in March IIRC) that the U.S.A. had only 11 cases and that they were getting better.