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Hometown Refs

Discussion in 'Rugby Discussion' started by Rebels3, Feb 16, 2020.

  1. Strewthcobber Mark Ella (57)

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    There are only 3 Oz refs on the panel. I wonder if we'd even have that many if the knew they'd be spending a month or months in South Africa. (Not that it's a bad place, it's just a very long trip away from home especially for refs who tend to be a bit older.and have families etc)

    Much easier sell if most of their games are near to home
    Dan54 likes this.
  2. RoffsChoice Jim Lenehan (48)

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    I wonder how much is competence. Do the same refs who result in a 3.46 penalty advantage for South Africans do the same for any team? Always for the home team? Always for the team higher on the table?

    We've seen a heap of games this weekend of refs in the perfect position to see something and still call it incorrectly. I'd chalk that up to incompetence before anything else.
  3. waiopehu oldboy Tim Horan (67)

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  4. Ignoto Desmond Connor (43)

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    Hah, goddamn, what a Trumpesque world we live in.
    Bobby Sands likes this.
  5. Dismal Pillock Peter Sullivan (51)

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    yourmatesam and The_Brown_Hornet like this.
  6. waiopehu oldboy Tim Horan (67)

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    ^ it's stuff.co.nz, not theNew York Times so I reckon you're odds-on to get it published. Just front-load it with the stats not the links to dog-rooting websites :).
    yourmatesam and Dismal Pillock like this.
  7. Dan54 Paul McLean (56)

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    Geez with all due respect to Rebel3 I tend to think this just about sums up NZStuff!!!!
    Ulrich, yourmatesam and RugbyReg like this.
  8. Ulrich Trevor Allan (34)

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    Interesting, using the limited data you have I narrowed it down to this, will have to compare with other nations later.

    The source of your stats?

    [IMG]
  9. Zero_Cool Vay Wilson (31)

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    Yeah, I pulled the data (by hand) from the SANZAR website. It's obviously the 2018 results, so there is plenty of scope for incorrect data to have been typed in by me.

    I'm planning / hoping to do a whole lot more analysis beyond just the SA vs the World stuff.
    Bobby Sands likes this.
  10. Derpus Mark Ella (57)

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    Hard to get past a purely numerical assessment though Dan (assuming accuracy, which is a big ol' assumption).
  11. Mr Wobbly Colin Windon (37)

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    I may have found where the discrepancy occurred. I think you have the penalties conceded around the wrong way in a number of games. I noticed it when Ulrich posted a snippet.

    E.g. The 11-2 penalty count in the Lions/Tahs game was in favour of the Lions, not the Tahs (big stink after that one).

    The next game I checked (I only checked two), Lions/Landers, has it 12-3 in favour of the Landers - also wrong way around.
    Zero_Cool likes this.
  12. Zero_Cool Vay Wilson (31)

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    Wonderful, I guess I'm checking 119 data points! -_-
  13. Sully John Eales (66)

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    Did you see this?

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby...bias-by-home-refs-towards-south-african-teams
    Derpus likes this.
  14. Ulrich Trevor Allan (34)

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    I am busy compiling a sheet myself, starting at 2017.

    Have so far completed ARG and AUS for 2017. Next is NZ 2017 then RSA 2017.

    2017 was a pretty shitty one because no home refs in ARG, many RSA and NZ refs in Australia, even for derbies. Only 1 home AUS ref v ARG and only 2 home AUS refs v RSA teams.

    At least 6 home AUS refs v NZ.

    Will see how the other 2 pan out, will complete it until at least end of 2019, takes a long time though. Every game on the sheet will contain a link to the page from where I got the stats.

    This is what 2017 looks like for Australia. The Argentina page is not even worth showing for 2017.

    A positive penalty variance favours the home team, a negative one favours the away team.

    [IMG]
    Up the Guts likes this.
  15. Eyes and Ears Arch Winning (36)

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    The original reason was that the player coaches wanted a merit based system where the best referees were appointed to the best games. Cost was a secondary benefit that made it an easy decision to make and a now a very hard one to reverse.

    The travel demands for the top Aust and NZ referees hasn't changed that much with the current merit system vs the former neutrality system. I think the South Africans travel a little less. Assistant referees used to travel more under the old system and that doesn't happen much anymore.
  16. Bobby Sands Ken Catchpole (46)

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    Just tell us how much South Africa is actually cheating by?
  17. Up the Guts Geoff Shaw (53)

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    Nice work. Do you have data on neutral referees as well? Would be a nice control group to use, although the averages work as a proxy as well.
  18. Ulrich Trevor Allan (34)

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    All refs and all games are there, so yes, neutrel refs as well. Once the sheet is complete I'll post it and you can filter as such.
  19. Ulrich Trevor Allan (34)

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    2017 complete. Apologies for any errors. Think I may have missed a game from the AUS conference? There's one fewer game there than in the NZ conference. Makes sense that the SA conference has a few more games because the Kings and Cheetahs were still there.

    Anyway, if there are any errors just let me know, or fix it and upload the modification.

    Interesting that the Australian conference is the only one where its own (home) teams received more yellows than opposition (that is, overall, which includes derbies).

    You can narrow down yourselves.

    The overall penalty variance in the SA tab is not so wide when including all games (again, including derbies). SA refs punish AUS and NZ teams near-equally at 3.16 and 3.66 penalties more on average than their SA counterparts.

    Australian referees equally punish NZ at 3.66 penalties extra per game compared to their AUS counterparts, but are much more lenient toward South African sides.

    New Zealand is by far the most balanced.

    Please beware that the AUS and NZ calculations with neutral referees against foreign teams needs to be scrutinised carefully as there are a few games where, for example, SA refs (and other similar instances) were in charge of games in Australia involving AUS and SA teams. Rather odd.

    If it looks dodgy just verify I did not make a mistake.

    Whoops, forgot the link: http://ulrichh.com/temp/REF.xlsx
    Ignoto likes this.
  20. Bobby Sands Ken Catchpole (46)

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    You had Cronje & Gibbs - we have Bancroft & Warner.

    I guess the kiwis had Richie, but generally speaking they are more mild mannered than either of our countries.

    Even when Richie did cheat (always) he was just so charming ;)

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