Julia's Reign

[light]

Wonder if Julia is worried by Queensland's election yesterday...

 

[Scotty]

What labor person wouldn't be?

It actually might help her though. She can now play the 'don't give the Libs all the power - state and national - card'

 

[Bowside]

I'm not really worried. It was a loss that the progressive side of politics needed to have - clean out the deadwood and reassess what sort of party they want to be. Hopefully it leads to better policy and vision next time around.

The swing was on and Queenslanders certainly love a bandwagon. I'm reserving my judgement on Can-Do for now, I wish him the best luck. From what I've seen of him he isn't a great orator and at times has a short fuse. But this shouldn't hinder him too much (if at all) at state politics level which is mostly planning and service delivery.

I hope the unions are restrained in their protests and pick and choose their battles with the new government carefully.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

I'm not really worried. It was a loss that the progressive side of politics needed to have - clean out the deadwood and reassess what sort of party they want to be. Hopefully it leads to better policy and vision next time around.

In order that they had a full house of losses in the last 3 years?
Just so my position is as clear as it can be: the Labor party has ceased to be relevant for reasons that are not entirely clear to me but it is possible that class warfare isn;t as attractive as it used to be when a commodore costs the same as a BMW.

 

[Scotty]

Bligh and Gillard were both lucky to win their first elections, IMO both only did so due to poor to average leadership from the opposition. Both scraped through and it served to just paper up the cracks.

 

[Bowside]

Bligh and Gillard were both lucky to win their first elections, IMO both only did so due to poor to average leadership from the opposition. Both scraped through and it served to just paper up the cracks.

I agree with you - but the important thing to note is that the opposition that gillard defeated is still the same opposition. Newman is a hell of a lot more palatable for swing voters than Abbott.

 

[Bowside]

In order that they had a full house of losses in the last 3 years?
Just so my position is as clear as it can be: the Labor party has ceased to be relevant for reasons that are not entirely clear to me but it is possible that class warfare isn;t as attractive as it used to be when a commodore costs the same as a BMW.

They have become temporarily irrelevant partly out of lack of vision but incompetence and failure to manage the national discourse also played a part. They are failing because they have ceased to be a strong progressive centre-left party, and are now just trying to be a worse version of a bad liberal party, with a lot of half baked policy that appeals to the lowest common denominator.

But to suggest the Labor party was built on a foundation of nothing more than class warfare is just bullshit.

 

[Bowside]

I also think that with our 2 major parties being so similar at the moment that success in politics is now more than ever about the charisma of the leader and media management. I think we get sick of leaders after a while and I also think voters get sick of women leaders quicker (regardless of their political persuasion and the actual performance of the women). The Labor party are terrible at media management and some of their leaders are so void of charisma that I cringe every time I hear them talk.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Their cronyism doesn't help and I suspect that joolia misread the contempt in nsw for bob Carr: his incessant spin started the rot.
But on an issue of substance: what do you think is the progressivism for which the electorate yearns? I think they might have had enough nbn and they would just like existing infrastructure to be run properly.so I'm not sure lack of progressivism is labors issue.


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[fatprop]

Gillard is so shit she is making Abbott look good

Gillard support wanes as Abbott closes in


JULIA Gillard is losing her bitter battle with Tony Abbott for Australia's political leadership after collapses in voter recognition for her trustworthiness, likeability, empathy with voters, strength and ability to manage the economy and national security. As Labor's primary vote remains below 30 per cent, the Opposition Leader has again pegged back Ms Gillard's standing as preferred prime minister, although both leaders continue to be punished by voters.
According to the latest Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian last weekend, the Coalition maintains a clear election-winning lead over the Gillard government.
Primary vote support has remained virtually unchanged for the past three weeks, with the Coalition on 48 per cent and Labor on 29 per cent. The Greens' vote, in the days after Bob Brown's surprise resignation as party leader on Friday, was steady, going from 11 per cent to 12 per cent.
Taking into account preferences at the 2010 election, the Coalition continues to lead Labor 56 per cent to 44 per cent, compared with 57-43 per cent three weeks ago.
Voter satisfaction with the Prime Minister fell in the past three weeks while a slight lift in approval for Mr Abbott helped him put his nose in front for the first time in two months as preferred prime minister, 41 per cent to 39 per cent.
Satisfaction with Ms Gillard went from 31 per cent to 28 per cent while dissatisfaction rose four points to 62 per cent.
Mr Abbott's satisfaction rating rose from 32 per cent to 35 per cent and dissatisfaction with the Liberal leader fell four points to 54 per cent.
But the first survey of leadership personality traits of both leaders since the August 2010 election and the start of minority government has shown that the intense political fight between Labor and the Coalition has damaged Ms Gillard much more than Mr Abbott.
In the first Newspoll survey test of Ms Gillard's trustworthiness since the election and the announcement of a carbon tax, voter support has slumped from 61 per cent at the 2010 election to 44 per cent last weekend. Mr Abbott's trustworthiness since 2010 fell from 58 per cent to 54 per cent, giving him a 10-point lead over the prime minister.
Ms Gillard's trustworthiness is now equal to John Howard's lowest rating as prime minister in early 2001, when the GST had been introduced and he was seen as "mean and tricky".
Paul Keating is the only prime minister in more than 20 years to have less trust from voters. His nadir came when he was dealing with a recession and reneged on promised "L-A-W" tax cuts after the 1993 election. Kevin Rudd's last rating of trustworthiness, in June 2009, was 70 per cent.
Across all leadership qualities, Ms Gillard has lost ground to Mr Abbott since the election on being likeable, in touch with voters, trustworthy, caring and understanding major issues. He has also wiped out her leads on experience, being decisive and strong and having a vision for Australia.
Ms Gillard's likeability dropped from 77 per cent to 55 per cent and Mr Abbott's fell from 63 per cent to 57 per cent, while her support for being in touch with voters slumped 28 points to 44 per cent as Mr Abbott's fell from 63 per cent to 60 per cent.
The only trait Ms Gillard has kept in front of Mr Abbott is on being less arrogant. Voters pushed Mr Abbott's arrogance factor up from 64 per cent to 67 per cent but Ms Gillard's went up from 45 per cent before the election to 54 per cent. Ms Gillard's ability to keep in touch with voters collapsed from 72 per cent to 44 per cent, while Mr Abbott's fell three points from 63 per cent to 60 per cent.
On key areas of governance, Mr Abbott either increased or held his lead over Ms Gillard as being seen to be more capable of handling the economy, national security and dealing with asylum-seekers, or wiped out or halved a lead in areas of Ms Gillard's strength as a Labor prime minister in health, climate change and even education.
Mr Abbott doubled his lead over Ms Gillard as an economic manager to 15 percentage points, 49 per cent to 34 per cent, and increased his lead on asylum-seekers to 22 points, 48 per cent to 26 per cent. He kept his national security lead of 48 per cent to 32 per cent, all due to a significant proportion of Labor voters preferring the Liberal leader.
In Labor's traditional strength of managing health and Medicare, Ms Gillard's 24-point lead in 2010 was cut back to a statistically equal 42 per cent to 39 per cent.
Even Ms Gillard's strength in education has been battered with her 31-point lead being halved last weekend to 50-32 per cent.

 

[Sully]

Abbott has been quiet for a few weeks now he's started talking again his approval rating will drop.

 

[Scotty]

The telling one is Abbott having such a big lead on economic management. He clearly is pretty weak in this area, but people are so frustrated with Gillard that they rate Abbott much higher!

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Sully/Scotty - you underestimate Abbott. The ALP has done so during the whole of his career.
As a result he will be the next (popularly elected) prime minister of this country. He will be better than Gillard and Rudd but not as good as Turnbull would have been.
The people to blame will be the ALP, the Greens and Oakeshott and Windsor.
Assuming that Abbott is weak on economics what does that say about the public view of Gillard/Swan?

 

[Scotty]

Isn't that what I just said?

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Isn't that what I just said?

it would appear so - Im sorry

 

[Gnostic]

Sully/Scotty - you underestimate Abbott. The ALP has done so during the whole of his career.
As a result he will be the next (popularly elected) prime minister of this country. He will be better than Gillard and Rudd but not as good as Turnbull would have been.
The people to blame will be the ALP, the Greens and Oakeshott and Windsor.
Assuming that Abbott is weak on economics what does that say about the public view of Gillard/Swan?

What a contradiction in terms. He will win because people dispise Gillard and there is no alternative.

I would like to see a mass informal (donkey) vote and none of these fools get in. Perhaps then the two party system will get the refresher it needs to serve the country otherwise we are doomed to a cycle with lying honourless idiots like Gillard and managerially incompetent power players and posers as the alternative.

 

[Scotty]

no worries!

 

[Scotty]

What a contradiction in terms. He will win because people dispise Gillard and there is no alternative.

I would like to see a mass informal (donkey) vote and none of these fools get in. Perhaps then the two party system will get the refresher it needs to serve the country otherwise we are doomed to a cycle with lying honourless idiots like Gillard and managerially incompetent power players and posers as the alternative.

At least you can say the Coalition has close to 50% of the primary vote. The Labor party only got about one third at the last election!

One in three voters wanted them to run the country. Two in three didn't.

 

[Gnostic]

At least you can say the Coalition has close to 50% of the primary vote. The Labor party only got about one third at the last election!

One in three voters wanted them to run the country. Two in three didn't.

The prime reason I stated at the time that the Preferential system has to be removed or at least confined to the preference being directed only as the voter states ie no preference the vote can't be distributed.

 

[Scotty]

Pretty much the queensland system.