In the Thread too many penalties - there was an initial analysis of what happened with this scoring system in the Varsity Cup trial that has already been done - and it was quite counter-intuitive. There was not a massive increase in penalties at all, but there were a lot less penalty kicks at goal, and a lot more points scored from tries. It was quite promising.
Here is some results back from the Varsity cup where they are experimenting with the reduce point system for penalties and more for a conversion
In the Varsity Cup, the conversion is now worth three points, the penalty goal and the drop goal two points.
Summary after 4 rounds:
Tries scored
2011: 39
2012: 50
28.2% increase This is statistically significant
Penalties in game
2011: 183
2012: 193
5.5% increase No significant increase in penalties.
Penalty kicks aimed at goal
2011: 45
2012: 16
64.4% decrease This is hugely significant.
Yellow cards
2011: 3
2012: 3
No change
Total points scored
2011: 359
2012: 379
5.6% increase No significant change, but a difference in how it's comprised, for the better.
Sometimes what happens and what you think will happen are very different.