Round 4: Waratahs v Brumbies- Saturday 18 March 7:45pm AEDT, Allianz Stadium, Sydney

[Froggy]

Really disappointing, this looks like being a loooong year!!

So many players under-performing. In the backs, Hegarty not up to this level (at 10 anyway), Simone should be just coming on for 10 at the end, Robinson was invisible (except when he kicked to the opposition), and wtf has happened to Phipps. He looks totally lost out there. In the forwards Mumm still offers little apart from the line-out, Holloway tried hard but looked rusty, McDulling's ball security is awful, and the second string front row just aren't up to it. For a massive man Lolohea is a very weak scrummager.

The defence is dis-organised, players are slow to react to changes, and when someone makes a break, no-one apart from Hooper is busting a gut to get there.

There need to be big changes next week, if we get beaten I don't care, but we need to show some people that if you don't make an effort, you don't play!

Positives ? Hard to find but Latu has been consistently good, Skelton a lot better this year, Hooper as always, and I think Kellaway's been pretty sound. I also liked the expoliveness of Hanigan off the bench, took a good lineout ball too, Start him in front of Mumm! I though the run-on scrum nearly had parity, likewise the lineout.

 

[notapatrioticboneinme]

.. Skelton gets the ball flat footed every time, in front of our attacking line. Wtf?

.. been forever; who should have whispered in his ear ages ago?
M-O-M-E-N-T-U-M, take a lesson from Coleman, even Arnold!

 

[mudskipper]

Watched the post match coach and captain interviews this morning... Hoops must have been talking about a different team, sure wasn't the team he played with... Tahs Coach was much the same, I remember past Tahs leaders having these foggy recollection issues too... Guys its really important to be honest with yourselves...

One thing I like about the Brumbies they call it openly and honestly about their performances over many years, it doesn't cut it in Canberra if they pretend...

 

[pissedoffihavetoregister]

So hanigan can take dempsey's spot and the lineout should improve a bit.

Should be a good opportunity for him.

 

[Brumby Jack]

Watched the post match coach and captain interviews this morning. Hoops must have been talking about a different team, sure wasn't the team he played with. Tahs Coach was much the same, I remember past Tahs leaders having these foggy recollection issues too. Guys its really important to be honest with yourselves.

Hooper again claimed they've done well on the training paddock this week.

Must be a shock when he finds out that tackling bags and witches hats don't actually tackle

 

[mst]

Shhhh! Lets see how long it take for him to work it out.

 

[Quick Hands]

I've seen this movie before. Chris Hickey used to say the same sort of things.

 

[Moono75]

it doesn't cut it in Canberra if they pretend.

mmmmm.....what about the Turnbull government??

 

[Quick Hands]

mmmmm...what about the Turnbull government??

Yes, I think it's a fair stretch of the imagination to describe Canberra as the plain speaking capital of the world.

 

[Brumby Runner]

QH, you're confusing the people of Canberra with those temporary blow-ins who just come here to get in front of the cameras.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Positives ? Hard to find but Latu has been consistently good, Skelton a lot better this year, Hooper as always, and I think Kellaway's been pretty sound. I also liked the expoliveness of Hanigan off the bench, took a good lineout ball too, Start him in front of Mumm! I though the run-on scrum nearly had parity, likewise the lineout.

Froggy, better have another look I think. Brumbies took a few lineouts off the Tahs' throw-in, and maybe lost one of their own. A couple of the wins against the throw were in crucial positions on the field as well - close to the try line.

 

[ForceFan]

Ruck Involvements – Waratahs v Brumbies

I've been a bit busy so have only been collecting ruck stats for the Western Force games.
With the Force having a bye this week had some time on my hands.
There's some interesting strategies unfolding regarding how the Australian teams are applying themselves at the breakdown. Essentially they aren't - with most teams standing off Defensive Rucks, more than last year, and being very selective with their involvement.
Essentially with Pocock and Gill OS and Hodgson injured we've lost our Open Side pilferers.
George Smith has been very subdued so far for the Reds.

Remember:
1. Early means 1st or 2nd of player’s team AFTER the ball carrier has been tackled and brought to ground.
2. Impact means active engagement: strong physical contact, changed shape of ruck, clean-out, protecting ball etc. (more than hand on someone’s bum or arriving after the hard work has been done). Yes it’s subjective - but as I collect all data at least it’s consistent.
3. Impact DOES NOT equate to Effectiveness. I’ve concluded that coming up with an effectiveness measure is just too hard in the time that I have available – but open to suggestions.

1. The Waratahs had 55% of the Possession and 57% of the Territory.
2. The Waratahs had 111 carries for 421m; the Brumbies 79 carries for only 165m.
3. It's not often any team has 2 Front Rowers leading the Ruck Involvements.
4. Latu, Robertson and Hooper had nearly half of the Tahs' D Rucks.
5. Latu, Hooper & Dempsey all earned 1 TOW.
6. The Tahs conceded 23 Turnovers, the Brumbies 19.
7. Both teams had an astounding number of Handling Errors: Waratahs 51; Brumbies 40. In SR2016 most teams averaged about 15.
8. Michael Hooper averaged 27 Total (19 Attack/8 Defence) in SR2016.
9. McDuling & Roach put in big efforts off the bench.

1. Big ruck effort by the Brumbies Back Row. 37% of D Rucks and 35% of Total Rucks.
2. Impressive ruck effort by Robbie Abel in an early injury replacement for Mann-Rae.

Involvements over Time

1. Very subdued ruck involvements from the Waratahs in the 3rd quarter leading up the the Brumbies' two tries at 58 & 61 mins.
2. Skelton had few ruck involvements after the opening 10 minutes. In his 40 minutes - 6 carries for 2m; 1 Tackle; 3 Handling Errors; 1 Lineout win (Stats from ESPN).
3. Generally good ruck involvement from Waratahs replacements.
4. Godwin by far the most involved Back.

Involvement by Main Player Groups

1. This level of Ruck involvement by the Waratahs' Front Row (as a % of Total Rucks) is even higher than what we generally see from the ABs. Main contributions from Latu & Robertson but also the 3 replacements (esp. in the closing 20 minutes.)
2. This level of mobility and involvement has been missing in Australian rugby.

Some more in the post below.

 

[ForceFan]

Fairly even support of ball carriers with the Tahs' Front Row efforts being matched by the Brumbies' Back Row.

Impressive pressure placed on the Brumbies' ball carriers by the Waratahs' Front Row fairly well matched by the Brumbies Back Row and Backs.

I don't think I've ever seen a Front Row have >50% of a team's D Ruck Involvements. Very impressive work rate.

Fardy credited with 3 TOW and Fakaosilea with 2 TOW.

Fairly even level of support for own team's ball carriers.

Both teams standing off D Rucks to about the same extent - preferring to maintain the defensive Line.

Brumbies slightly more prepared to commit 3 or 4 players to protect their ball carriers. This most likely reflects efforts to counter Latu.

 

[fatprop]

Hooper again claimed they've done well on the training paddock this week.

Must be a shock when he finds out that tackling bags and witches hats don't actually tackle

Yeah, I think they are working towards play like the Jake Gordon try. Letting the ball do the work and moving to the space.

That is all very Kiwi like and it is quite possible that in training it runs smooth, but they are struggling to execute under proper pressure

 

[Brumby Runner]

The Tahs' front row dominated their ruck involvements while the Brumbies' backrow dominated their's. Probably reflects and emphasises the different backrow makeup of the two sides. Tahs' backrow more mobile and probably playing wider of the rucks while the Brumbies' rely on their bigger backrow to keep things tight in close.

I agree that Latu is a real pest at the breakdown, but he did get away with quite a bit of marginal activity on the weekend - laying across the back of the Brumbies' ruck and otherwise just spoiling clean ball. He is the Tahs' Scott Fardy in this regard. Latu was also very lucky to escape a diving, no arms tackle at one stage. Shades of TPN at his best/worst. Will need to be careful or will earn the wrath of some refs.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Yeah, I think they are working towards play like the Jake Gordon try. Letting the ball do the work and moving to the space.

That is all very Kiwi like and it is quite possible that in training it runs smooth, but they are struggling to execute under proper pressure

That try was very NZ-like, but the opportunity was presented to them by a poor clearing kick and poor chase. Speight was the main chaser but couldn't quite get to the contact area in time to shut Kellaway down. The attack then hit down the Tahs' left hand flank where the Brumbies had failed to cover for Speight's absence. The opportunity was there, but the Tahs did everything right (very NZ-like) to finish it off.

Incidentally, I still like both Gordon and Lucas over Phipps.

 

[Scrubber2050]

Brums deserved to win.

Tahs big playmakers and/or players have disappeared (with the exception of Hooper who continues to flog himself each week).

Gibson needs to send a message, particularly to one outside back. Stop wrapping the bloke in cotton wool.

Only one forward is standing up (other than Hooper) - Latu

 

[Braveheart81]

I would say that Latu is the only Waratah currently improving his status in terms of Wallaby selection.

They have been dire. Hooper is trying hard and certainly one of their best each game but even he isn't having the impact he normally has.

 

[Scrubber2050]

Frankly Hooper has played shit this year WHEN compared to previous years.

Hooper seems at least to be trying whilst Latu is doing

 

[Froggy]

BR, when talking about the lineout I was speaking of the starting pack, who I think won all their lineout ball and pinched three of the Brumbies (although more down to poor throws than good work by the Tahs forwards.)
Once the B side came on, that all turned to shit!!